FanPost

April 29th, Pirates vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Pirates and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Wednesday at 9:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
PIT LAN B.Buress vs C.Kershaw LAN 70.67% 73.26%

 

Notes:  The Dodgers are "heavy" favorites to end their losing streak.  If the Dodgers somehow manage to lose this game the fan will get messy inside the Dodgers clubhouse.  Remember to get your game score guesses in.  It is about time that someone makes a move at fritts on the leaderboard.  The top 11 most likely scores are all games which have the Dodgers winning.  That's what being a big favorite will do for you.  Still, nothing is guaranteed.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 8-4   101 PIT 8-1
2 LAN 4-3   52 LAN 10-1   102 PIT 9-4
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 10-2   103 LAN 13-2
4 LAN 3-1   54 PIT 6-2   104 PIT 9-6
5 LAN 5-4   55 LAN 8-5   105 LAN 13-3
6 LAN 4-2   56 PIT 5-1   106 PIT 9-8
7 LAN 4-1   57 PIT 7-6   107 LAN 10-9
8 LAN 5-2   58 LAN 8-7   108 LAN 12-4
9 LAN 3-0   59 LAN 9-4   109 PIT 9-2
10 LAN 1-0   60 PIT 7-5   110 LAN 11-6
11 LAN 5-3   61 PIT 7-4   111 LAN 10-7
12 PIT 3-2   62 LAN 10-0   112 PIT 7-0
13 LAN 5-1   63 PIT 3-0   113 LAN 14-1
14 LAN 2-0   64 LAN 10-3   114 LAN 12-5
15 LAN 4-0   65 PIT 7-3   115 LAN 14-2
16 PIT 4-3   66 PIT 6-1   116 LAN 13-4
17 LAN 6-5   67 LAN 8-6   117 PIT 10-4
18 LAN 5-0   68 PIT 4-0   118 LAN 10-8
19 LAN 6-1   69 PIT 7-2   119 PIT 10-3
20 PIT 2-1   70 LAN 11-2   120 LAN 14-3
21 LAN 6-3   71 LAN 11-1   121 PIT 10-6
22 LAN 6-2   72 LAN 11-0   122 PIT 9-1
23 LAN 6-0   73 LAN 10-4   123 LAN 15-1
24 LAN 6-4   74 LAN 11-3   124 PIT 8-0
25 LAN 7-2   75 LAN 9-5   125 LAN 15-2
26 LAN 7-1   76 PIT 8-5   126 LAN 13-5
27 PIT 5-4   77 PIT 8-4   127 LAN 11-7
28 PIT 4-2   78 LAN 12-1   128 LAN 14-0
29 LAN 7-0   79 LAN 9-6   129 PIT 10-2
30 LAN 7-3   80 PIT 8-3   130 PIT 10-5
31 PIT 3-1   81 PIT 5-0   131 PIT 10-9
32 PIT 5-3   82 PIT 8-6   132 LAN 12-6
33 LAN 8-1   83 LAN 12-2   133 PIT 10-7
34 LAN 8-2   84 PIT 8-7   134 LAN 14-4
35 LAN 7-4   85 LAN 11-4   135 PIT 11-4
36 LAN 7-6   86 LAN 9-8   136 PIT 11-5
37 LAN 8-3   87 PIT 7-1   137 PIT 10-1
38 PIT 1-0   88 LAN 12-0   138 LAN 15-3
39 LAN 8-0   89 LAN 12-3   139 PIT 11-6
40 PIT 4-1   90 LAN 9-7   140 PIT 10-8
41 PIT 6-5   91 PIT 8-2   141 LAN 13-6
42 PIT 6-4   92 LAN 10-5   142 LAN 14-5
43 PIT 5-2   93 LAN 11-5   143 PIT 9-0
44 LAN 7-5   94 PIT 9-5   144 LAN 15-0
45 LAN 9-2   95 PIT 6-0   145 PIT 11-3
46 LAN 9-1   96 LAN 13-1   146 LAN 11-8
47 PIT 6-3   97 LAN 10-6   147 LAN 11-10
48 LAN 9-3   98 PIT 9-7   148 PIT 11-2
49 PIT 2-0   99 LAN 13-0   149 LAN 15-4
50 LAN 9-0   100 PIT 9-3   150 LAN 16-2
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