Back Home Series Preview- Pittsburgh Pirates Take 2
by Michael White on Apr 29, 2010 7:01 AM PDT
in Team Previews
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PrintSeason Series: Pirates lead 2-1
Anybody think the Pirates would enter this series with a better record than the Dodgers? Me neither, but here we are and the Pirates come to the Ravine in a rematch of the opening weekend series.
Old Friends: Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, Joel Hanrahan
Position Breakdown
1st Base- As noted in the first series preview the Pirates awareded the starting first base job to converted catcher Jeff Clement. Clement never figured to be an excellent defensive first basemean and Phil was concerned that Clement could hit enough to play first base. The answer so far appears to be "no." Clement is struggling at the plate and enters the series with a wOBA of .269. Clement has been a bit unlucky sporting a BABIP of .216 on the young season.
2nd Base- Akinori Iwamura came over from the Rays and has been the Pirates every day second baseman and leadoff man. Iwamura was considered a pretty solid on base man but has been dreadful so far this season, sporting an OBP of .294. Iwamura is the second member of the Pirates infield to have a sub .300 wOBA to start the year.
SS - Ronny Cedeno came over from the Mariners to replace Jack Wilson and is considered to be an inferior fielder to Wilson. Cedeno hasn't brought much at the plate either as he is the 3rd member of the Pirates infield with a sub .300 wOBA (.297.)
3rd Base - Andy LaRoche (hey I remember this guy) came over from the Dodgers in the Manny deal. The opening series preview noted that LaRoche started finding his power stroke at the end of last season and that has certainly carried over so far this season. The former top prospect for the Dodgers currently has an OPS of .959 and a wOBA of .432. As great as this start is for LaRoche its built on a shaky foundation at this point. His BABIP is absurdly high at .459 and his ISO is nothing to write home about at .089. It seems LaRoche is getting a bit lucky on balls finding holes resulting in extra base hits, despite hitting in a pretty hitter friendly park.
C - Ryan Doumit continues to be the everyday starting catcher for the Pirates. Doumit has some pop and has racked up 2 home runs so far this season to go along with a solid wOBA of .356.
CF - Andrew McCutchen who broke out in 2009, hasn't quite been able to duplicate his success so far this season. McCutchen has dropped his average, on-base percentage and his slugging percentage since last season and has an OPS of only .710 so far this season. I haven't yet heard if Neal Huntington has blamed McCutchen for the Pirates slow start, but I'll continue to check the Pittsburgh press.
OF - Lastings Milledge was once a top Met prospect but he has actually continued to get worse at the plate. He's still young at 24 years but he is on borrowed time as a major league player if he doesn't drastically improve his OPS of .557 and wOBA of .247. It seems the Pirates are platooning Milledge with Church for the time being.
OF - Garrett Jones was the MVP of the opening series as he punished the Dodgers with the long ball. Last season Jones hit 21 home runs along with a .938 OPS. Jones was destined for a drop off since the opening series against the Dodgers but the regression to the mean has been pretty brutal with Jones currently sitting at an OPS of .748 and a wOBA of .342.
OF - Ryan Church came into the season as the backup to Milledge but has actually started in 2 of the past 4 games. Church remains a capable backup as he has decent on base skills and some pop. On the season, Church has a wOBA of .332.
OF - Delywn Young has the same role with Pittsburgh as he had with the Dodgers which is a lefty pinch hitter. After a huge spring Young hasn't done much with limited plate appearances so far as he's posted a wOBA of only .290.
Starting Pitching for our Series:
Game One - Brian Burres - Burres was called up earlier in the week and is scheduled to make the spot start in Game 1. Burress has appeared in 3 games for the Pirates this season and made 1 start (0-1 record.) So far his numbers have been pretty terrible, ERA 9.31, FIP of 5.97 and x-FIP of 7.03.
Game Two - Charlie Morton - At first glance Morton appears to be even worse than Burres with his ERA of 16.20 and his 0-4 record. Unlike Burres though, Morton has been very unlucky. Morton enters the series with an x-FIP of only 4.61 and transitioning from the hitter friendly Pittsburgh stadium to the pitcher friendly Ravine will be a welcome change for Morton. If theres one pitcher in this series who figures to have a "where did that come from" peformance, Morton is due.
Game Three - Zach Duke - Duke was the opening day starter against the Dodgers who came away with the victory. Duke has been struggling so far this year with his x-FIP up to 5.20 compared to 4.31 last season. Duke doesn't strike out a lot of hitters and has been struggling a bit with his control compared to last season.
Game Four- Jeff Karstens - Karstens will be making his second start of the season. Karstens isn't a particularly good pitcher with an x-FIP of 5.50 last season along with an ERA of 5.42. The 27 year old Karstens started the year in AAA Indianapolis where he didn't exactly dominate racking up a FIP of 4.47.
Bullpen:
The Pirate bullpen has also struggled. Octavio Dotel was imported from the White Sox to take over the closer duties that left with Matt Capps. Dotel on the year has appeared in 8 games and has an x-FIP of 4.00 which is much better than his ERA of 12.27. Joel Hanrahan the ex - closer for the Nationals and one time Dodger prospect is the primary setup man. Evan Meek leads the Pittsburgh bullpen with an x-FIP of 2.74.
Series Prediction:
You would think after the Dodgers have been dreadful on the road after we had picked series victories would leave me a little gun-shy about making a prediction, but I just can't help myself. I see nothing that suggests the Dodgers shouldn't take at least 3 out of 4. Even though the Pirates enter the series with the better record, the Pirates enter the series with a run differential of <77> compared to the Dodgers at a <14>. We've seen the Dodgers put in some good hitting performances and pitching performances, I am betting that the return to the West will finally see the Dodgers firing on all cylinders.
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Good job Mike
maybe the change over will lead us to a series victory.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I'm sure it's been said many times before
But I think it’s a bad sign when every time I check, Garrett Anderson is batting. He should not be getting this many at-bats. Torre deserves some of the blame we love to give to Colletti.
A better throw here, a better pitch there, the Dodgers aren’t as bad as the record indicates. This should be a case of progression to the mean.
by Little Blue Bicycle on Apr 29, 2010 8:39 AM PDT reply actions
Dodger's coaching staff and GM should be on the hot seat, not the young players
Whenever I see Duncan rockin the rehab pitchers and LaRussa contending year after year I realize that our coaching staff is sub par. Why do the Dodger pitching coaches not get blamed for pitching staff problems?
And the starting pitching is lacking after we passed on Garland, Wolf and/or someone else that may have been available(Millwood?). We needed one more veteran arm IMO. Every year we need 7-8 starters. GM failure. Only aggressive moves like calling up Lindbloom, Elbert or McDonald can salvage this moment and maybe give the team a positive shot in the arm.
Dissension in the clubhouse is being introduced by Dodger management and that’s weird.
I always thought it was easier to get rid of coaches than players.
Your kidding right?
LaRussa is contending because he has pitching coach named Duncan and 1st baseman named Pujols. I don’t mind blaming the coaching staff for some of our failures, but at least point us to a manager who deserves it, Not Tony LaRussa.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I also maintain
that if we had brought in another arm like Garland, a good % including myself would have complained we were blocking Elbert/McDonald. It is a fine line between depth and blocking. I don’t know if Ned kept the quality of veterans low because he believed in Elbert/McDonald/Haeger or because he simply couldn’t afford better arms.
I expect if the losing to continue that everyone will get on the blame management for our woes bandwagon which is fine if you were making the same comments on April 1st. I see three groups.
1. Those who felt the cheapness of McCourt was going to hurt the competitiveness of the 2010 team
2. Those who felt Ned had built a team that was not good enough to win another division
3. Those who felt the team had holes but it was just as good as last years squad and should be competitive for a division.
I fell into group three. If we fail, I’m not going to be blaming Ned or Frank. Sure I would rather have had Kelly Johnson then Jamey Carroll but I won’t deny that a part of me wanted to see what Blake DeWitt would do with the job. Yes, I wish we had a batter fifth starter but I won’t deny that a part of me wanted to see what Haeger could do with the job. Or Elbert. Or McDonald. I don’t have any faith that Manny is going to play LF on a consistent basis in 2010 but I felt the team had grown up enough to counter that. That would seem to be the biggest miscalculation so far. These guys still seem to need his bat in the lineup to feel comfortable. Someday they will need to grow up and thrive without Manny. It better happen soon.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Apr 29, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
This is excellent and rec'd.
As I also fall into Group Three, I have only one thing to add:
Part of the reason I was not concerned about 2010 was that last year’s bullpen was so good and this year’s bullpen is pretty much the same cast of characters. What I forgot was that we might not win the bullpen lottery once again. Middle relievers can be good one year and bad the next for no apparent reason.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 29, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I had concerns
that Kuo could be healthy and Belisario could repeat but I also thought that whoever didn’t win the starting gig would be helping in the bullpen (Elbert, McDonald, Lindblom).
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Move over, i’m in group 3 as well.
My biggest frustration, stated many times, is the lack of agressiveness by the pitchers (and therefore high # of balls and walks).
by KellyStephen on Apr 29, 2010 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
that's more like it, but...
He has a chance to be the best Dodger in the history of the franchise. He has the ability to do that." — Colletti, following his brief conversation with Kemp after the game.
Pressed on the matter, Kemp spoke only cryptically.
“It doesn’t matter to me,” he said. “It’s all good. People can say what they want to say. I just work hard and try to help this team win.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/columns/story?id=5145724
enough out of me… :)
When asked his opinion of the Kemp/Colletti controversy, John Ely replied in a thick Liverpool-area accent, “I’m just happy to be here.”
by kinbote on Apr 29, 2010 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Give Kudos to BHsportsguy and his call on Mr. Heyward
it is the extremely rare talent who can shine in major league baseball at such an age.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
What about those who picked the Braves to win the NL East? I believe they share the worst record in the NL with us.
Nobody gets credit for any season predictions
on April 29.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 29, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Memorial Day is when you can start having a bit more certainty.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 29, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
They are chasing the Mets
and we are chasing the Padres. I like both our chances. They appear to have grossly miscalculated on Troy Glaus but hopefully for them he’s just rusty. He looks like Jim Edmunds looked with the Padres but given time Edmunds was huge in the 2nd half for the Cubs. If the Braves end up behind the Mets at the end of the year I will be one surprised person, just as I’ll be surprised if we end up behind the Padres.
On the other hand baseball surprises me every year.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
MRI today. Likely won’t go on DL, but might miss a few more games.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 29, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Does he ever not get hurt
during a hot streak? How come he never got hurt when he was sucking?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Nice
edgy back then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D1wlkA8ToE
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Rec'd
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Apr 29, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice preview
No bulletin board material like Phil’s last preview. That should help us out. A couple of additions from the things I’ve noticed from following a few of the Pirates games closely.
Iwamura is playing on a gimpy leg and isn’t much of a speed threat nor defensive threat. The Pirates would be better served by resting him vs the lefty Kershaw. The Pirates pitching is pretty bad, from the starting rotation to the bullpen and from the gulf stream waters to the redwood forest. Meek is the only one they can half way rely on and like many good bullpen arms is often not used in the proper leverage situations. The Pirates will attempt a sac bunt in pretty much any bunting situation. LaRoche has been moved up to the second spot in the lineup. The Pirates are likely to call up right handed hitting former top prospect Steve Pearce during this series. Would’ve been best to call him up for the Kershaw game, but not sure if that will happen in time. If you really want to spook the Pirates, the Dodgers should wear Milwaukee Brewers uniforms for the series and James Loney should put on 100lbs or tuck a couple of pillows under his shirt.
vr, Xei
They sure didn't like
Ike Davis being called a “goofball”.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
It's New York
You should of called him a “greaseball”. You have to run it through the English to NY babelfish applet.
I consider
all Ike’s to be musicians not ball players. Baseball Reference agrees with me. There was another Ike Davis back at the turn of the 20th century. No Ike has ever made his mark in baseball as a hitter, though Ike Van Zandt could probably play a mean guitar.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Apr 29, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Such as?
I didn’t see any season is over comments? Am I in the right thread?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Yea, I saw no implication of the season is over
by robotmadeofnails on Apr 29, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Ryan Church should have honorary old friend status
simply for missing third base.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
We all hope to win 3 out of 4
but with Manny and Rafy out, along with home Loney this is not exactly a juggernaut team. Helps to have our best pitchers going this series other then Saturday.
I’d hate to be the one monitoring the game threads come Sunday if we haven’t won two out of three by then. I’m really hoping the Pirates are exactly what the doctor ordered.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
According to current BA mock drafts
If the Dodgers want to draft Kyle Blair with their first round pick, he should be available.
!!!
i just read somewhere that said he might slip into round 3…
he could be avaiable with pick numver 2!!!
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