2010 Player Profile: Clayton Kershaw, "True Ace"
by Michael White on Apr 3, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
in Community Projections
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PrintClayton Kershaw put in a dominant season in 2009, and he went from being a high school senior to a starting pitcher for the Dodgers pretty darn quickly. The 22 year old Kershaw was the Dodgers first round draft pick (7th overall ) in the 2006 MLB amateur draft. Thanks to a hefty signing bonus, the Dodgers were able to lure Kershaw to turn professional as opposed to attending university. Kershaw first appeared in the rookie league in 2006 and posted a FIP of 0.69 in 37 innings pitched. In 2007 Kershaw pitched in A Ball in the Midwest League and continued to dominate, posting a FIP of 2.72 in 97.1 innings which led to a late year promotion to AA Jacksonville. After pitching in A and AA in 2007 (which would be Kershaw's last full season in the minors) as a 20 year old, Kershaw was ranked as the 7th best prospect in baseball heading into the 2008 season. In 2008 Kershaw would start the year in AA (he would finish it in the NLCS) where he continued to make quick work of the minor leagues. After pitching in 61.1 innings in Jacksonville (again posting a sub 3 FIP) Kershaw was called upon to pitch in the rotation for the big league club, where at 20 years old Kershaw pitched in the rotation of a Dodger team which came from behind to win the NL West and advance all the way to NLCS.
Coming into 2009 there was no question where Kershaw would start the year. He was going to be in the rotation. While his traditional stats didn't blow people away the prior season (4.26 ERA, 5-5 record) the fact that Kershaw was able to post a league average ERA as a 20 year old spoke volumes. Kersahw seemed prime to be a star pitcher at some point in his career, but I doubt many expected such a quick rise to success. In 2009, Kershaw posted a shiny 2.79 ERA in a full year of work and helped the club win a second division title; including being the starting pitcher in the division clinching game as he drew inspiration from TBLA being in attendance. Clayton was even tabbed as the Game 2 starter in the NLDS against St. Louis. A brilliant year indeed.
Contract Status
Signed a one-year deal for $440,000. Kershaw is not arbitration eligible until 2012, and is under team control through 2014.
2010 Outlook
| Year | Age | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP | tRA | ERA+ |
| 2008 | 20 | 107.2 | 4.35 | 8.36 | 4.26 | 4.08 | 3.96 | 4.36 | 98 |
| 2009 | 21 | 171.0 | 4.79 | 9.74 | 2.79 | 3.08 | 3.90 | 3.09 | 142 |
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2010 Projections - Age 22 Season |
|||||||||
| Bill James | 180.0 | 4.55 | 9.40 | 3.25 | 3.42 | ||||
| CHONE | 151.0 | 4.65 | 9.48 | 3.58 | 3.61 | ||||
| Marcel | 155.0 | 4.18 | 9.12 | 3.31 | 3.53 | ||||
| Baseball HQ | 189.0 | 4.28 | 9.23 | 3.43 | |||||
Looking into the statistics for Kershaw last season, I might be inclined to predict a bit of a regression on his part. Kershaw had the largest delta of x-FIP to ERA amongst the starters. In fact, Kershaw’s HR/FB ratio of 4.1% was the lowest in all of major league baseball (and as a result his BABIP of .274 was 11th in MLB.) On the other hand, his K/9 noted above of 9.74 is pretty awesome (7th in major league baseball amongst starting pitchers) and Kershaw is only 22 years old. One would figure that he's still developing and learning and the sky is still the limit for Kershaw. I don't believe that Kershaw will post a sub 3 ERA again, but I still expect a very solid season from the Dodgers Ace.
In 2010, I predict Kershaw will post an ERA of 3.10, WHIP of 1.25, FIP of 3.35 in 175 innings of work.
What are your community projections for Clayton Kershaw (ERA, WHIP, IP)?
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don't think his low BABIP is a fluke...it's tough to make solid contact against guys with his stuff
2.97/1.18/182
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
I disagree
Lincecum has great stuff, too, and nobody gets good contact off of him, yet his BABIP has been .288, .310, and .286.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 3, 2010 8:43 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Interesting. Here's one theory....
Lincecum is rarely off but when he is, his stuff is more hittable, as in later last year when the Dodgers faced him I believe and recall them making good contact off him for one of the rare times, knocking his fastball a bit. When Kershaw is off he’s usually wild, with control, and ends up walking guys more than getting knocked around. This is just based on recollection of seeing each of them a bunch of times last year, not scientific mind you.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
The first two numbers are somewhat unimportant
because for me, he needs to get some innings this year.
212 IP, the rest will fall into place.
I was watching these highlights from his start yesterday and it’s really awesome how many ways he can K somebody. He has two curveball variations plus his three other weapons.
First K: Aybar caught looking on a slow curve with perfect placement.
2nd K: Abreu overmatched on a fastball outside.
3rd K: Matsui fooled on a 83 mph slider.
4th K: My favorite was his beautiful changeup to K Napoli. There’s a 10-11 mph differential from his avg FB velocity, but he maintains the same arm speed.
5th K: Slow curve with plus-plus break that Kendrick chased in the dirt.
My point, I guess, is that the change will be a KEY this year – he’s already established the other three pitches as difference makers, and the 4th will make him a Cy Young contender and soon.
That Napoli AB
he had two changeups like that, just made him look silly.
This is the final profile
Blue Jays sign Adam Lind to a 4-year, $18 million extension, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. That seems like a pretty good deal wrapping someone up through their arb years.
Lind hit .305/.370/.562 (144 OPS+) in his first full season last year.
If Lind’s options are picked up, it becomes 7 years/$38.5M.
A tremendous bargain for a very similar talent to Ethier. $5.5M a year, are you KIDDING me?
Then I agree. With the options, a very very nice deal for Toronto.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 3, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Adam Lind
has had one above average year in MLB, I’d say Andre had a lot more leverage to work with.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Angel Stadium
Parking $8.00
Popcorn $3.25
Beer $8.50
In and out of the parking lot easy
Experience in the stadium – alot of fun – no f-bombs – no insane screaming and yelling
Order is maintained by a team of grandmas and grandpas who go out of their way to talk to you and treat you kindly, from the lady taking the toll for parking to the usher who will show you where your seat is at.
Quite a contrast to Dodger Stadium in many respects.
#Dodgers lineup: Martin DH Kemp CF Loney 1B Belliard 3B Ausmus C Johnson LF Carroll SS DeWitt 2B Paul RF Billingsley P
by Eric Stephen on Apr 3, 2010 10:34 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Minor leaguers in uniform today
Luis Ayala (26), Justin Miller (45), J.D. Closser (77), Jesus Castillo (92), Tim Corcoran (93)
Hope Martin stays away from Corcoran if the latter
tosses warmups on the side.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Funny part is that for today anyway they are about 3 lockers apart. I was in there when Martin arrived. Luckily he passed Corcoran at his locker without incident. :)
by Eric Stephen on Apr 3, 2010 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
32 players left in major league camp
which includes Belisario, Wade, and Kuo — in other words, there are really 29 left in camp. So five cuts expected today.
My guesses:
Ellis
Hu
Paul
Russ O
I should find out in about 10 minutes or so. Torre is meeting with the media at 11:30
It will be nearly impossible for the Dodgers to resist the temptation to have Kershaw go over 190 innings this season, presuming he stays healthy all season.
For both parties sake in the long term they should resist, Kershaw is only 22 years old and still growing.
From my seats last night, 10 rows back directly behind home plate, Kershaw looked fantastic. The movement on his ball makes the eyes wiggle. The fastball hops, the curve suddenly darts down and away to the lefty, the slider was starting down in the zone and then disappearing, the occasional change up was startling.
He pitched around Morales – would have been more fun if he had challenged him.
Hunter benefited from the “Torri Strike Zone” on his home run, probably should have been called out on strikes on two pitches before his oppo bomb.
But hey, it was only a practice game anyway.
Monasterios has made the #Dodgers
by Eric Stephen on Apr 3, 2010 11:35 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
nick green vs russ ortiz
the winner of that duo is gone after kuo or belisario is back correct???
day old cold coffee vs. flat warm soda drink
by 68elcamino427 on Apr 3, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
How does that work?
Is either of them yet on any sort of contract? Can the one who is dropped agree to a minor league, or mixed, contract if he wants to? (There’s room for him on the 40-man roster, right?) Does this ever happen, or does he just go on the free agent market and hopes another team picks him up? How about the one who is picked to stay on the team? What sort of contract does he get? Because he’s almost guaranteed to be dropped from the 25-man roster when Kuo or Belisarion returns? He can’t be optioned like a young player under team control unless he agrees, right? So does he end up in the identical situation as the other guy who’s dropped now, or is there a difference between a pre-season and an in-season drop?
Green and Ortiz would have to accept an assignment to the minors, and if they decline they would be a free agent.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 3, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Now that was funny
From website: “There ought to be a caution sign as you enter the Yakov Smirnoff Theatre in Branson, Missouri. It should read "Warning! Hold on to your seat ‘cause this guy is about to blow you away with dynamite comedy!" This ‘guy’ of course is Branson’s Two-Time Comedian of the Year, Yakov Smirnoff, the famous Russian Comedian. He delivers explosive laughter in a show filled with brilliant special effects, dazzling dancing, heartfelt moments, and just plain fun. Yakov’s entire show is packed with comedic tall tales and witty perceptions, funny facts and huge laughs.”
One more
’Yakov’s comedy focuses on the dynamics between men and women, the happiness that can be found inside oneself, and a celebration of the spirit of life. He shares a vision of the world where laughter truly is the best medicine. Yakov’s prescription for healthy living includes explosive laughter backed up with the best of human compassion. During this inspiring show filled with patriotism and love of family, Yakov delivers humor for the heart over and over again! As Yakov says, “What A Country”, you’ll be cheering for the red, white & blue and saying, “What A Show!”’
Angels lineup
Aybar SS Abreu RF Hunter CF Matsui DH Morales 1B Rivera LF Kendrick 2B Wood 3B Mathis C
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