Opening Day (4/5) Dodgers vs Pirates - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Apr 5, 2010 12:21 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 11:45PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | PIT | V.Padilla vs Z.Duke |
LAN | 57.08% | 51.08% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas thinks the Pirates really suck and that Dodger hurler Vicente Padilla is very good. Chances are Vegas has under and over rated one or possibly two of those things. The Dodgers Vegas win probability is likely inflated due to Padilla's strong finish to the 2009 season. Expect a close game.
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Top 50 Most Likely Scores |
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| 1 | PIT 3-2 |
| 2 | PIT 4-3 |
| 3 | LAN 3-2 |
| 4 | LAN 4-3 |
| 5 | PIT 2-1 |
| 6 | LAN 4-2 |
| 7 | PIT 5-4 |
| 8 | LAN 3-1 |
| 9 | PIT 4-2 |
| 10 | LAN 2-1 |
| 11 | LAN 5-3 |
| 12 | PIT 3-1 |
| 13 | LAN 5-4 |
| 14 | PIT 5-3 |
| 15 | LAN 5-2 |
| 16 | LAN 4-1 |
| 17 | PIT 5-2 |
| 18 | PIT 4-1 |
| 19 | PIT 6-5 |
| 20 | LAN 6-3 |
| 21 | LAN 5-1 |
| 22 | LAN 6-4 |
| 23 | LAN 3-0 |
| 24 | LAN 2-0 |
| 25 | PIT 2-0 |
| 26 | PIT 1-0 |
| 27 | PIT 6-3 |
| 28 | PIT 5-1 |
| 29 | LAN 6-5 |
| 30 | PIT 6-4 |
| 31 | PIT 3-0 |
| 32 | LAN 6-2 |
| 33 | LAN 1-0 |
| 34 | LAN 4-0 |
| 35 | PIT 6-2 |
| 36 | LAN 6-1 |
| 37 | LAN 7-4 |
| 38 | LAN 7-3 |
| 39 | PIT 4-0 |
| 40 | PIT 6-1 |
| 41 | LAN 7-2 |
| 42 | LAN 5-0 |
| 43 | PIT 7-6 |
| 44 | LAN 7-5 |
| 45 | PIT 7-3 |
| 46 | PIT 7-4 |
| 47 | PIT 7-2 |
| 48 | LAN 7-1 |
| 49 | PIT 5-0 |
| 50 | PIT 7-5 |
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Comments
My own player projection system
The inputs are component stats which are converted to rate stats. IP, SO, BB, Hits, HR, GB, FB
The stats are weighted, giving the most weight to the most recent performance. Exact details are highly contagious, so I can’t share them. :)
vr, Xei
I dreamed last night we lost 5 - 4
It was a bizarre dream with the score mixed in a conversation that had nothing to do with baseball.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
… at some point.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Apr 5, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
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