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Padilla's Start: Lack of an Ace or Just a Poor Choice?

Browsing the game stories from the three main beat writers following the Dodgers after today's debacle, I can't help but sense a theme.

From Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times:

For the Dodgers, the vast promise of a new season was quickly replaced by the sobering truth that they had Vicente Padilla starting for them on opening day.

From Tony Jackson of ESPN LA:

There was bad starting pitching that underscored the team's lack of a true ace: Vicente Padilla, apparently the best manager Joe Torre could come up with for an Opening Day starter, was torched for seven earned runs and didn't make it through the fifth inning.

From Ken Gurnick of MLB.com:

Padilla, manager Joe Torre's unexpected choice from a rotation with no established ace, served up a pair of homers to Garrett Jones and was charged with seven runs on six hits and three walks.

Emphasis mine. Just as two months of stellar pitching shouldn't have outweighed nearly six years of mediocrity in evaluating Padilla this winter, he should not be condemned for one bad -- OK, putrid -- start.  The Dodgers only had two starts last season with a Game Score worse than Padilla's 22 today.  Padilla is going to give you a few of these starts every year, but he'll also break off a few gems, too, and in the end he'll probably end up with an ERA in the mid 4.00s.  Nobody ever said it wouldn't be a bumpy ride.

But starting Vicente Padilla on opening day doesn't necessarily mean the Dodgers don't have an ace.  It just means manager Joe Torre made a bad choice.  The choice wasn't bad because of Padilla's performance today, either; it was bad because Padilla is pretty clearly the fourth best starter at best on the club, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda.  With tomorrow's off day, there is plenty of time to dwell on today's bad game, but there is also a silver lining: the Dodgers have their best three pitchers starting the next three games, so there's plenty to look forward to in the short term, as well as the long term.

There was one other excerpt from Hernandez that caught my eye:

"There were two teams on the field and one of us had to lose," Padilla said. "It so happened to be us. It so happened to be me. I can't control that."

Again, emphasis mine.  I'm willing to cut Padilla some slack here, because (a) I wasn't there for the entire conversation, and (b) at the time he left the game, Padilla had only given up four runs (but left the bases loaded for Ramon Ortiz, who allowed all three inherited runners to score).  However, allowing 11 baserunners (six hits, including two homers, three walks, and two hit batsmen) while only getting 13 outs seems like something that might fall under Padilla's control.

Some other news and notes from opening day:

  • The Dodgers allowed a hit of three runs batted in or more just 11 times in the regular season in 2009 (though they allowed four to the Phillies in the NLCS), but allowed two such hits today: Ryan Church's three-run double in the fifth, and Ryan Doumit's three-run jack in the eighth.
  • The Dodgers allowed 11 runs just three times last season, and never more than that.  One of the three games was the Dodgers' final game in Pittsburgh, meaning in the last two Dodger road games against the Pirates the Dodgers have given up 22 runs (thanks to Humma Kavula for this note)
  • Ramon Troncoso will rejoin the club in time for Wednesday's game, after being with his wife for the birth of their daugher Isabella.
  • The Dodgers are off tomorrow, but Ronald Belisario is scheduled to throw to live hitters for the first time this spring on Tuesday, per Jackson.
  • Jackson also brought the news that Nick Green agreed to go to Albuquerque, but also has another escape clause -- on May 15 -- that allows Green to become a free agent if he isn't added to the active roster.
  • The Pirate blog Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke? was mentioned in an interesting story by Pittsburgh station KDKA on Pirate fans wearing jerseys and shirts of departed players.
  • Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts listed the most career hits by any player ever to wear a Dodger uniform, including Garret Anderson, holding onto 14th place with his 2,502 career knocks.  But of course, I was reeled in hook, line, and sinker with the top name on the list.
  • I have updated the payroll worksheet, and the opening day Dodger payroll is $94,928,659.
  • The Dodgers' magic number to clinch the division remains at 163 over the Rockies, Giants, and Diamondbacks.

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Padilla contending that

He had no say in the outcome is laughable. I wish he hadn’t had a say today, but that is just not true. We have 2 games left to get back on track vs Pittsburgh. Let’s go Blue.

by keithc13 on Apr 5, 2010 11:17 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

It isn’t Padilla’s fault that he pitched the opener, but it is Padilla’s fault for being Padilla!

But seriously, there’s was no reason for Padilla to start this game other than Torre assigning him the role.

by Tripon on Apr 5, 2010 11:17 PM PDT reply actions  

Once again

I am a fan of Quick Pitch, the daily recap show on MLB Network. It’s just 60 minutes of highlights, essentially, with minimal talking / inanity over the highlights. Short, sweet, and to the point, and manages to show much, much more than any 60- (or 90-) minute Baseball Tonight ever shown on ESPN.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 5, 2010 11:21 PM PDT reply actions  

“The Dodgers’ magic number to clinch the division remains at 163 over the Rockies, Giants, and Diamondbacks.”

Made me smile

by K3vo on Apr 5, 2010 11:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Starting pitcher is the one guy that can control the ballgame

The main source of my irrational hatred of knuckleball pitchers; they give up control in favor of the randomness of non-spinning spheres and air currents. I have grown, however, to find them acceptable as innings-eating rotation back-enders, like Haeger might be this year.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Apr 5, 2010 11:31 PM PDT reply actions  

I really missed on this during the game

But there after the bases-loaded double, there should have been an immediate call to appeal to the umpires that Ryan Church missed a base. Should have made the appeal play at first, just on principle. Wonder how Church would have taken that?

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Apr 5, 2010 11:33 PM PDT reply actions  

FWIW (nothing), I think Gurnick’s wording is more accurate than Jackson’s.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Apr 5, 2010 11:34 PM PDT reply actions  

What’s up with Minnesota’s new road uniforms? The script looks so 80s.

by silverwidow on Apr 5, 2010 11:36 PM PDT reply actions  

we have an ace - mr kershaw

in this division i’d trade him straight up for lincecum and that’s the end of the list. so zach duke is a “true ace?” well good luck w dat…

but torre fanned the flames of the “no true ace” with this ridiculous choice

also, padilla does not strike me as a wordsmith in spanish or english so I will choose to read his remarks as “sometimes you have it, sometimes you don’t, that’s baseball and on a given day there’s nothing you can do about it” rather than “its not my fault” – although his rep as a bad teammate does give one pause

by lchristmas on Apr 6, 2010 12:10 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

but torre fanned the flames of the "no true ace" with this ridiculous choice

Exactly

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 6, 2010 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

If all things were equal...

If all things were equal (which of course they’re not) Torre would have been doing some great managing today. If the other team is going to line up their starts from best to not best it would be smart to line up our starters 5, 1, 2, 3, 4 which would give us the advantage in 80% of all games.

by ibleedbloo on Apr 6, 2010 3:22 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

The only reason I believe that Padilla started Opening Day is so that Kershaw could start the HOME Opener. Which many myself being one of them is the more important start. So this way everything lines up for that.

by vadodger on Apr 6, 2010 6:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Having Kershaw start the home opener is fine, but it could have been accomplished with Padilla starting game #4 instead of game #1

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 7:11 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Agreed

I think Kuroda would have been a great choice for yesterday

by robotmadeofnails on Apr 6, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Reading those quotes, Padilla reminded me of Anton Sigur, except more warped.

by kinbote on Apr 6, 2010 7:36 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Padillia looked ok for the first three innings, then he ran out of gas.

by 68elcamino427 on Apr 6, 2010 7:38 AM PDT reply actions  

I do not get the big deal over this. He was going to pitch one day this week no matter what, and he was either going to win or lose. The way I see it, they have favorable matchups the next 2 games. Winning the series is the goal, and is very possible still.

by delias man on Apr 6, 2010 7:51 AM PDT reply actions  

This falls under the “why is Matt Kemp batting (7th or) 8th” banner. It’s a poor decision, but in the end it doesn’t matter much, but is also frustrating because it’s so easy to “fix.”

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Weird choice, bad start, but hardly the end of the world. Some in the media and elsewhere are acting like LA

by Little Blue Bicycle on Apr 6, 2010 7:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Is this a “to be continued?”

by Michael White on Apr 6, 2010 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Crazy keyboard, I tried to delete, to no avail. Or, it could be Morse Code for “S.”

by Little Blue Bicycle on Apr 6, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

…just lost its chance at the National Championship game vs. Alabama (sorry Eric, apparent keyboard problems).

by Little Blue Bicycle on Apr 6, 2010 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

You just did the equivalent of turning off the electromagnetic fence, inviting the Xeifrank BCS smoke monster to attack! :)

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

I work at Auburn, what can I say? By the way, I met Paul Bryant, Jr., last weekend, which should earn me some points with certain Bama fans ;-)

by Little Blue Bicycle on Apr 6, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I see that the Giants are

starting Zito in their second game (instead of Matt Cain, who is clearly a superior pitcher).

My guess is that managers sometimes make unorthodox decisions in order to (1) make it look like they’re actually doing something, and (2) make it look like they’re actually doing something than any Pat, Chris, or Terry off the street wouldn’t do.

In other words, there’s no reason to pay a manager millions of dollars to make the exact same decisions that any baseball fan would make. Since “everyone knows” that you should start your best starter first, second best starter second, and so on, managers sometimes try to make themselves look busy and clever by doing something different.

by D4P on Apr 6, 2010 8:02 AM PDT reply actions  

I believe Zito is starting to uphold the time-honored R-L-R-L rotation order that managers tend to use whenever possible, since Jonathan Sanchez, the #4, is a lefty as well.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right, imagine the “genius” Torre would be if he got this one right and Padilla won, and Kershaw and Billz do what is expected and they swept the Pirates.

by delias man on Apr 6, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

PS: If the unorthodox decision

pays off, the manager is hailed as a “genius”.

If it doesn’t work out, well, they still get paid millions of dollars anyway.

by D4P on Apr 6, 2010 8:03 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

DT is your home

you really shouldn’t wander far from home, it is not as hospitable outside of the fence.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 6, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Better to die outside of the fence

than to die at home waiting for something to happen…

by D4P on Apr 6, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

wow

never figured to see D4P ever again.

by npurcell on Apr 6, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

heh

I still read Jon’s stuff. The posting format doesn’t really appeal to me. And I just love the “z” button at sb nation.

by npurcell on Apr 6, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

The posting format at SB Nation sites is virtually flawless. Hard to believe ESPN can’t adopt the same technology or something similar. It’s not as if they don’t have the money, though I suppose they probably don’t have the incentive.

by D4P on Apr 6, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

agreed.

I do miss the old days of DT though. Ahh…nostalgic.

by npurcell on Apr 6, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah,

I think everyone misses the old days of DT, Jon W. included.

So many good posters in one place, with good site rules that fostered positive interaction and community.

Those days are gone forever. I should just let’em go, but…

by D4P on Apr 6, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

I could be wrong but I imagine Torre’s choice here came for psychological reasons. He’s a laid back guy, but I’d a gone with the best guy to set the tone…Kershaw…or challenged Billz to be “the guy” this year (and beyond) or Kuroda, the quiet veteran leader…anyone but the headcase…so he challenged Padilla, maybe, but Pads wasn’t up to it…and showed a lack of confidence in what may be a fragile Billz psyche …a guy who he lost confidence in late last year. …“new year, new start…win or lose, I have confidence in you, Billz” was the call IMO

It is a long season but this is on Torre

by megaballs on Apr 6, 2010 8:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout, the SB Nation Pirates blog, gives an outside perspective that is a tad sobering:

Before we get too excited about the Pirates’ hitting performance today, we’d do well to keep in mind that the Dodgers’ pitchers included Vicente Padilla, Ramon Ortiz, Russ Ortiz, Jeff Weaver and a Rule 5 pick. How a big-budget team like the Dodgers sends all these retreads out there on Opening Day is beyond me. How they have all of them on their 25-man roster to start the year is beyond me, and it speaks poorly of Ned Colletti’s ability to build a team. Even given their uncertain financial situation, they can be a lot more creative than this. It’s true that Weaver had his first okay year since ever last season. And I know Padilla pitched pretty well after joining the Dodgers last year (although that was 40 innings, and the 400 frames that precede them say he’s bad). But still. We can joke about how the Pirates always struggle about terrible pitchers, but more seriously, if I were a Dodgers fan I’d be pretty annoyed.

Wilmoth goes to UCSD, so his opinion is of the highest of value.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 8:31 AM PDT reply actions  

Pretty much

Further, the frustration should really be the composition of the 25 man roster and not the opening day starter. As delias man says, Padilla is a starter for the Dodgers and most of us don’t have a problem with that fact. In that case, he was going to have to start at some point anyway. But the bullpen composition is not good. Giving Elbert such a short rope in spring training and then never bringing in guys like Schlichting and Leach who could give the Dodgers a boost in the bullpen whilst the team is working through its Belisario and Kuo issues is the part worth hammering.

by Michael White on Apr 6, 2010 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

As Michael White said

you could have said the same thing last year. Saying Ned does not know how to build a bullpen based on the names seems shallow given the performance of his bullpens since he took over. He also seems to be conveniently forgetting that Belisario and Kuo are on the DL and will quickly replace two of those names.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 6, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

When I say what Michael White said

I’m referring to his comment yesterday when he pointed out that the 2009 bullpen looked pretty much the same on opening day with some serious question marks who all ended up being quite productive.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 6, 2010 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I’m clinging to the Kuo/Belisario comebacks and am also intrigued as to the roster moves that will accompany them. My guess would be Russ O & Monasterios get pink slips, but I never like to guess these things, as someone will end up getting hurt to create another spot anyway.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think Russ O gets the DFA assuming Kuo comes back this weekend. For Belisario, it will have been 2-3 weeks of the season so if somebody looks particularly dreadful, they would be the one getting the boot.

by Michael White on Apr 6, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dammit

the wrong Ortiz pitched okay yesterday. :)

by keithc13 on Apr 6, 2010 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good point

If you Kuo and Belisario and replace the Ortiz twins, you have the best bullpen from last year. The exception being the Monk vs McDonald. The thinking has to be that they will only get better by adding good pieces. Also, The Beard 2.0 wasn’t available yesterday. Is there any doubt he would ave gone in at some point yesterday? Torre luvs him sum Tron.

by keithc13 on Apr 6, 2010 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Who are the hockey fans on the team

besides Russell Martin? From the Dodgers:

Dodgers working out at PNC Park on the offday. Lots of players going to the Penguins/Capitals game with Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Even for a non-hockey fan, if you are going to see a game, seeing those two players and teams are still worth it.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 9:23 AM PDT reply actions  

I would say none. I think SOSG had a pic of him watching the gold medal game all by himself.

by delias man on Apr 6, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Andre Ethier dropped the ceremonial first puck at a Kings game back in February, I believe. I would guess that Haeger grew up as a huge Red Wings fan, Billingsley might be a Red Wings or Blackhawks fan, Ausmus probably rooted for the Whalers, B’s or Islanders, and it’s plausible that The Invisible Beard was a fan of the Northstars or Blackhawks…

2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 6, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I really

don’t understand the big deal people and the MSM are making about Padilla starting the opening day game. In the grand scheme of a 162 game season, it just doesn’t matter at all. Padilla is probably the 4th best starter on the team, so all it really does is lower the win probability in Game #1, but raises it in Games 2-4 for a wash.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Apr 6, 2010 9:37 AM PDT reply actions  

The MSM is just reaching for sports headlines in the second biggest media market in the USA. It’s much ado about nothing…

2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Apr 6, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

It just gives them a piece of evidence in the “Dodgers don’t have an ace” trial

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

That’s a great analogy.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Apr 6, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

A pitcher is complaining at slick baseball in Cinci...guess what team he's from...

It’s Carpenter from the Cardinals!

First our white rally towels are too much for Wainwright, now the baseballs are to slippery for Carpenter. Penny is going to come out next saying his glove isn’t edible enough.

by Ivdown on Apr 6, 2010 9:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Penny will complain that it’s too humid to run his hands through his hair. :)

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Lol. Hopefully he doesn’t pitch in Coors then ;)

by Ivdown on Apr 6, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

6 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs and the win. Man, this guy needs to just learn when to complain internally.

by robotmadeofnails on Apr 6, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Just wondering, is it too late to get into True Blue L.A.?

by Tripon on Apr 6, 2010 9:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Do you mean the May 1st game? There are still 11 tickets left.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 6, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nine now

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 6, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

After seeing that juggernaut Bucs team yesterday the tix should start flying off the shelves pretty quickly.

by KellyStephen on Apr 6, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would guess that the pitching situation

Will remain fluid for another couple of weeks, I would think Belisario probably won’t be available until after the first homestand and the Dodgers have been historically very careful with Kuo, so he would need to demonstrate and assure them that he has no pain or soreness before they activate him.

by bhsportsguy on Apr 6, 2010 10:05 AM PDT reply actions  

If this stays the worst game of the year.

We’re in pretty good shape. If not then who cares it’s not the worst game of the year.

by CTBMikeD on Apr 6, 2010 12:12 PM PDT reply actions  

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