April 7th, Dodgers vs Pirates - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Tuesday at 11:45PM)


Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN PIT C.Kershaw vs R.Ohlendorf LAN 61.09% 60.72%

Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The Dodgers send their "best" pitcher to the mound today in an attempt the fiasco that was Vicente Padilla on opening day.  The Dodgers will try to avoid starting the season 0-2, something they did to start off the 2008 season with two road losses in Milwaukee.  Both Vegas and my simulator are in very good agreement as to the likelieness of the Dodgers winning today. 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 PIT 3-2
2 PIT 4-3
3 PIT 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 2-1
6 LAN 4-3
7 LAN 3-1
8 LAN 4-2
9 PIT 5-4
10 LAN 4-1
11 LAN 5-2
12 LAN 5-3
13 LAN 5-4
14 LAN 3-0
15 PIT 4-2
16 LAN 2-0
17 LAN 5-1
18 PIT 3-1
19 PIT 1-0
20 PIT 6-5
21 LAN 1-0
22 LAN 4-0
23 LAN 6-3
24 PIT 5-3
25 LAN 6-2
26 LAN 6-4
27 LAN 6-1
28 PIT 5-2
29 PIT 4-1
30 LAN 5-0
31 LAN 6-5
32 LAN 7-2
33 PIT 2-0
34 LAN 6-0
35 LAN 7-3
36 LAN 7-1
37 PIT 6-4
38 PIT 7-6
39 PIT 6-3
40 PIT 3-0
41 LAN 7-4
42 LAN 8-1
43 PIT 5-1
44 LAN 7-0
45 LAN 8-2
46 PIT 6-2
47 LAN 7-5
48 LAN 8-3
49 PIT 4-0
50 LAN 7-6

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