April 8th, Dodgers vs Pirates - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Wednesday at 9:30 PM)


Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN PIT C.Billingsley vs P.Maholm LAN 59.18% 52.14%

Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... I guess the bookies didn't tune in to TBLA today to find out that Manny and likely one other starter won't be starting in Thursday's game.  They also don't realize that P.Maholm is not a bad pitcher as he had a FIP of 3.82 and an xFIP of 4.23 last year, while his counterpart Chad Billingsley had a FIP of 3.82 and xFIP of 4.04.  Billingsley may have the pedigree, but pedigree doesn't strap it up every 5th day.  Look for this game to be another dog fight.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 PIT 3-2
2 PIT 2-1
3 PIT 4-3
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 2-1
6 LAN 4-3
7 LAN 3-1
8 PIT 5-4
9 LAN 4-2
10 PIT 3-1
11 PIT 4-2
12 PIT 1-0
13 LAN 4-1
14 LAN 5-3
15 LAN 5-4
16 PIT 4-1
17 LAN 5-2
18 LAN 1-0
19 LAN 2-0
20 PIT 5-3
21 PIT 2-0
22 LAN 3-0
23 PIT 5-2
24 PIT 6-5
25 LAN 5-1
26 LAN 6-3
27 PIT 3-0
28 LAN 6-2
29 LAN 6-4
30 LAN 4-0
31 PIT 5-1
32 LAN 6-1
33 LAN 6-5
34 PIT 6-3
35 PIT 6-2
36 PIT 6-4
37 PIT 4-0
38 LAN 5-0
39 LAN 7-3
40 PIT 6-1
41 LAN 7-2
42 LAN 7-4
43 LAN 7-1
44 PIT 7-6
45 PIT 5-0
46 LAN 6-0
47 LAN 7-5
48 PIT 7-2
49 PIT 7-4
50 LAN 8-2

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