FanPost

May 1st, Pirates vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Pirates and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Friday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
PIT LAN Z.Duke vs C.Monasterios LAN 63.90% 58.92%

 

Notes:  Losing streak is over, the jinx has apparently been broke.  Not only that but MammothDodger picked the correct final score last night.  We finally have some movement on the leaderboard.  Get your guesses in in the Carlos Monasterios game.  Vegas doesn't seem to be too worried with his start.  The Dodgers would probably still be favored even if they sent the batting practice coach out to the mound.  Oh wait, Russ Ortiz has already been released.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 LAN 8-2
2 LAN 3-2   52 PIT 1-0
3 LAN 5-4   53 LAN 8-5
4 LAN 2-1   54 LAN 8-4
5 PIT 3-2   55 PIT 4-0
6 PIT 4-3   56 PIT 8-4
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 6-0
8 LAN 6-5   58 LAN 8-6
9 LAN 5-3   59 PIT 8-3
10 LAN 3-1   60 PIT 8-5
11 PIT 5-4   61 PIT 7-1
12 LAN 5-2   62 LAN 8-1
13 PIT 4-2   63 LAN 9-3
14 LAN 4-1   64 PIT 8-2
15 PIT 5-3   65 LAN 9-2
16 PIT 2-1   66 PIT 8-7
17 LAN 6-3   67 LAN 9-4
18 LAN 6-4   68 PIT 8-6
19 PIT 3-1   69 PIT 5-0
20 LAN 7-6   70 LAN 7-0
21 PIT 6-5   71 LAN 9-8
22 PIT 5-2   72 LAN 9-1
23 LAN 5-1   73 LAN 9-6
24 PIT 6-4   74 PIT 9-4
25 PIT 4-1   75 LAN 9-5
26 PIT 6-3   76 PIT 9-3
27 LAN 6-2   77 PIT 6-0
28 LAN 1-0   78 PIT 8-1
29 LAN 2-0   79 LAN 10-3
30 LAN 7-4   80 LAN 10-2
31 PIT 6-2   81 PIT 9-5
32 LAN 3-0   82 PIT 9-2
33 LAN 7-5   83 LAN 9-7
34 LAN 6-1   84 LAN 10-4
35 PIT 7-4   85 LAN 8-0
36 LAN 7-3   86 LAN 10-1
37 PIT 5-1   87 PIT 9-6
38 PIT 7-5   88 PIT 7-0
39 LAN 7-2   89 PIT 9-1
40 PIT 7-6   90 PIT 10-3
41 PIT 7-3   91 PIT 9-8
42 LAN 4-0   92 LAN 10-5
43 LAN 8-7   93 LAN 11-2
44 PIT 6-1   94 PIT 10-4
45 PIT 7-2   95 LAN 11-3
46 LAN 7-1   96 PIT 9-7
47 LAN 5-0   97 LAN 9-0
48 PIT 3-0   98 PIT 8-0
49 LAN 8-3   99 PIT 10-2
50 PIT 2-0   100 PIT 10-5
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