FanPost

May 1st, Pirates vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Pirates and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Friday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
PIT LAN Z.Duke vs C.Monasterios LAN 63.90% 58.92%

 

Notes:  Losing streak is over, the jinx has apparently been broke.  Not only that but MammothDodger picked the correct final score last night.  We finally have some movement on the leaderboard.  Get your guesses in in the Carlos Monasterios game.  Vegas doesn't seem to be too worried with his start.  The Dodgers would probably still be favored even if they sent the batting practice coach out to the mound.  Oh wait, Russ Ortiz has already been released.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 51 LAN 8-2
2 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 52 PIT 1-0
3 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 53 LAN 8-5
4 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 54 LAN 8-4
5 PIT 3-2 &nbsp 55 PIT 4-0
6 PIT 4-3 &nbsp 56 PIT 8-4
7 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 57 LAN 6-0
8 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-6
9 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 59 PIT 8-3
10 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 60 PIT 8-5
11 PIT 5-4 &nbsp 61 PIT 7-1
12 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-1
13 PIT 4-2 &nbsp 63 LAN 9-3
14 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 64 PIT 8-2
15 PIT 5-3 &nbsp 65 LAN 9-2
16 PIT 2-1 &nbsp 66 PIT 8-7
17 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 67 LAN 9-4
18 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 68 PIT 8-6
19 PIT 3-1 &nbsp 69 PIT 5-0
20 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 70 LAN 7-0
21 PIT 6-5 &nbsp 71 LAN 9-8
22 PIT 5-2 &nbsp 72 LAN 9-1
23 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-6
24 PIT 6-4 &nbsp 74 PIT 9-4
25 PIT 4-1 &nbsp 75 LAN 9-5
26 PIT 6-3 &nbsp 76 PIT 9-3
27 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 77 PIT 6-0
28 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 78 PIT 8-1
29 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 79 LAN 10-3
30 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 80 LAN 10-2
31 PIT 6-2 &nbsp 81 PIT 9-5
32 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 82 PIT 9-2
33 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 83 LAN 9-7
34 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 84 LAN 10-4
35 PIT 7-4 &nbsp 85 LAN 8-0
36 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-1
37 PIT 5-1 &nbsp 87 PIT 9-6
38 PIT 7-5 &nbsp 88 PIT 7-0
39 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 89 PIT 9-1
40 PIT 7-6 &nbsp 90 PIT 10-3
41 PIT 7-3 &nbsp 91 PIT 9-8
42 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 92 LAN 10-5
43 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 93 LAN 11-2
44 PIT 6-1 &nbsp 94 PIT 10-4
45 PIT 7-2 &nbsp 95 LAN 11-3
46 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 96 PIT 9-7
47 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 97 LAN 9-0
48 PIT 3-0 &nbsp 98 PIT 8-0
49 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 99 PIT 10-2
50 PIT 2-0 &nbsp 100 PIT 10-5
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