Diamondbacks Team Preview - Battle for Last Place
by Phil Gurnee on May 10, 2010 2:05 PM PDT
in Team Previews
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PrintThanks to the Brewers sweeping the Diamondbacks the Dodgers are no longer in last place. To remain out of last place they will need to win at least two games in this series. The Diamondbacks are struggling having lost seven of their last ten games. The pitching has been the main culprit as the Diamondbacks are dead last in FIP (4.96), second to last in ERA (5.49), and thirteenth in xFIP (4.37). Even with Justin Upton struggling the Diamondbacks are doing just fine offensively thanks to the contributions of newcomers Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson. If you read the TSL of the offense you will notice that this team walks a lot. They don't lead the league in walks but they are third best with 124.
We first checked out the Diamondbacks back on April 12th when the season was still fresh, and both teams had not yet asphyxiated from their high aspirations. Brandon Webb is still not in sight and the longer he's out the longer the odds are that the Diamondbacks reach the post-season.
Position Breakdown
1st Base- Adam LaRoche decided not to wait until the 2nd half this year to kick his game into gear. His TSL of .264/.366/.500 yields a wOBA of .376 which is good for 4th place among NL 1st baseman.
2nd Base- Kelly Johnson is out of his mind at the moment with 10 home runs which is only six shy of his career high of 16. If Mr. Utley was not in the NL he'd be the best hitting 2nd baseman right now with a crazy wOBA of .442. He's doing it all.
SS -Stephen Drew is also off to an excellent start with a TSL of .287/.358/.472 and a wOBA of .367. This puts him behind only Hanley Ramirez so far. Safe to say the DP combo of Kelly Johnson/Steven Drew has been the best offensive DP combo in the NL.
3rd Base - Throw in Mark Reynolds and you could argue the Diamondbacks have the best hitting infield in the NL. Reynolds average has dropped as expected but he has kept the power mojo in full throttle.. TSL of .236/.356/.541 shows off his power/patience combination. The true three outcome player with a K rate at 34%.
C - Chris Snyder took over the starting gig when Miguel Montero went down the last time the Dodgers faced the Diamondbacks. The offense has not missed a beat with Snyder behind the plate. His TSL of .243/.379/.486 is plenty good enough to make me jealous of the days when Russell Martin had more then patience in his arsenal.
CF - After several years of falling short of expectations Chris Young is having his best season to date. His BABIP is a little high for him at .356 but for now the hits are falling in. TSL of .293/.357/.466. He's right there with Matt Kemp this year.
RF - While it seems every Diamondback is putting up offensive numbers better then expected the best player on the team, Justin Upton is not. The K rate of 36% tells some of the story for the low batting average but even when he puts wood on the ball not much is happening. A Slug% of only .387 for Justin Upton?
LF - Conor Jackson was just activated from the DL today, so he'll be manning LF. The Ex ECR star was put on the DL April 19th, so they welcome back their starting left fielder.
Bench -Tony Abreu provides support at 2nd, SS, and 3rd base and every time they call upon him to start he hits enough to have a .350 average. They don't have a spot for him but right now I'd call Abreu the best utility player in the league with his ability to hit, and play above average defense at 3rd, SS, and 2nd. Geraldo Parra is an excellent fourth outfielder who was filling in for Jackson while he was on the DL.
Starting Pitching for our Series:
Game One -Rodrigo Lopez -This is what I had to say on April 12th.
Much traveled Rodrigo Lopez will go in game two. Lopez has not pitched more then 14 games in the majors since 2006 but here he is in the Diamondback rotation. His skills are gone, and he may not be here the next time I do one of these.
Yet here it is May 10th and Rodrigo Lopez is still in the rotation. So far he's been one of their best pitchers with an xFIP of 3.74. Dodger fans won't know what to make of him because he simply does not walk anyone as evidenced by his 1.79 BB/9 rate. His last game against the Astros was his best of the season going seven innings while allowing only 3 hits and two runs.
Game Two - Diamondback ace Dan Haren will go in game two and if things go as expected he will pitch great. Another Diamondback starter who knows what it means not to issue free passes he goes one step further with a 9.18 K/9 rate. That is the highest of his career if he can maintain it. TSL - 4.04/3.31/3.04
Game Three - Ex Dodger Edwin Jackson will be facing the Dodgers for the first time and he is in a serious tailspin. Edwin has given up twenty-one runs in his last thirteen innings but he'll be pitching at home where he hasn't had one of those blow up games yet. TSL - 7.32/5.40/4.51 show he's been extremely unlucky so far. Edwin still flashes a 94 MPH fastball that he mixes up with slider. The CB and Change are both thrown less then 10% of the time.
Bullpen: Chad Qualls is still the closer but has almost lost the job a few times in the last month. If Juan Gutierrez had been any good when they turned to him to close Qualls may not have the job anymore. Qualls is toting a 6.94 ERA but his xFIP is only 3.05 so he has not been nearly as bad as it looks. Didn't know much about Esmerling Vasquez a month ago but since then he's proven to be the second best relief pitcher on the team. He's got a double digit K rate (10.24) and has done a reasonable job of keeping runs off the board. The same can't be said for the rest of the bullpen as Aaron Heilman, Blaine Boyer, Bob Howry, Juan Gutierrez , Leo Rosales, and LHP Jordan Norberto have all taken turns getting beat on.
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This season has taught me I have an endless supply
of either optimism or stupidity. I’m actually feeling hopeful about Ely which is totally irrational.
“Sorry to jerk you around, Mr. Ely, but glad you’re back. You start Tuesday. What’s that? Ya wanna know who you’re facing? Some guy named Haren. Yeah, good luck with that.”
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
It was all part of the plan. I think he never left, and he got a nice weekend in LA on the Dodgers dime.
Yeah, I know.
But it’s FUNNIER my way.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on May 10, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
The Dodgers also volunteered him for military service, under Operation Human Shield :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
seems like every DBacks game involves double digit scoring, either by the DBacks or their opponents..
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on May 10, 2010 2:18 PM PDT reply actions
Interestingly (or not), both players received in the Pierre trade have been optioned, then recalled within 10 days because of injury this season.
Link is starting to look like the classic throw-in. Only problem is that he’s taking up a roster spot.
Not a big deal, is it? There seem to be several spots taken up by eminently dispensable players, e.g., Nick Green. Heck, at this point moving Padilla to the 60-day DL would start to become an option; he last pitched on 4/22, so he would be eligible to return around 6/22.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
You need to have more conviction, man. You were practically Link’s real estate agent during the spring, trying to find him a beach house in LA. :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
That was my thought too.
and on the 93rd postseason of the National Hockey League, the Slovakian-hockeygod Zeus commanded from high atop Mount Figueroa..."RELEASE THE MEAT TRAIN!" And it was good.
by DodgerBlueBalls on May 10, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
My cat was finicky like that, too. :)
by silverwidow on May 10, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Feeling good about the rest of the season...
I don’t know why I feel good about the rest of the season really it is either because of this Kool Aid that was shipped to me from LA from some people named Ned and Frank and I am chugging that stuff or because Manny just came back, Furcal is going to be back at the end of the week, so the offense is going to right itself and the pitching seems to have found itself somewhat.
by vadodger on May 10, 2010 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I’m lov’in that Kool Aid too. My favorite flavor is rationalize, the blue colored one.
Change 3 crazy games this year and the standings would look much nicer.
April 11, 5-6 Dodgers lose, Marlins win
April 14, 7-9 Dodgers lose, DBacks win
April 20, 9-11 Dodgers lose, Reds Win
Pitching please
by 68elcamino427 on May 10, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
That triple-slash lines for pitchers
Is ERA / FIP / xFIP, I believe.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
why no tERA?
I’m not asking you to use it in the writeups i’m just asking whether or not it is as reliable as FIP and/or xFIP. I’m not very well versed on the stat, but have heard good things
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
I was watching MLB Network at lunch
today, and the graphic on screen showing today’s pitching matchup (Billingsley vs Lopez) had a graphical error:
Billingsley: Has not pitched 6+ innings in 20 starts
Now, Bills hasn’t recorded an out in the seventh inning for 20 starts, but the way I read that graphic is that he hasn’t even pitched 6 innings.
Billingsley has pitched 6 innings in 11 of those 20 starts.
I thought usually when you use +
next to an inning, it means he started that inning but did not record an out. And its true, in those 20 starts, the man has not stepped back onto the field after the 6th inning.
You are probably right, but I assumed it was used as shorthand for the on-screen graphic
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
You’re right, it means they pitched beyond the number of innings indicated but did not record an out before they were pulled.
That’s a crazy stat, though. I knew that he hadn’t recorded an out in the 7th inning in a long time (thanks TBLA) but I thought maybe he had come back out for the 7th at least once.
D-Backs lineup
Johnson 2B
Upton RF
LaRoche 1B
Reynolds 3B
Drew SS
Young CF
Gillespie LF
Snyder C
Lopez P
Does Gillespie blow his own horn in LF?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 10, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The DBacks acquired two mighty fine names
when they traded Felipe Lopez away last July:
July 19, 2009: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Milwaukee Brewers for Roque Mercedes (minors) and Cole Gillespie.
BTW, does Cole Gillespie qualify as a Reggie Cleveland All-Star?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
How good was Kershaw's performance Sunday?
The question was asked in the game thread if this was Kershaw’s best start or not. Here’s his top three by game score:
Date Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit GSc BF
2010-05-09 COL W 2-0 8.0 2 0 0 3 9 0 117 84 28
2009-04-15 SFG W 5-4 7.0 1 1 1 1 13 1 105 83 22
2009-08-08 ATL L 1-2 7.0 2 0 0 1 10 0 103 82 23
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I hadn’t been to Kershaw’s B-R page in a long time, am I crazy or have his comparable pitchers changed dramatically?
His age-21 comparisons
Haven’t changed since November. Obviously his career comps change annually.
He’s already had Rick Ankiel’s pitching career. Hopefully the accompanying wildness bug has been eradicated. :)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Kershaw received no decision in those other two starts.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Classic Kershaw.
Yesterday snapped a string of 9 no-decisions for Kershaw in games where he gave up 2 runs or less in 6 or more innings.
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Screwed up the links to the last two games
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200904150.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200908080.shtml
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The Atlanta game was lost on an extra-inning HR by Kelly Johnson that also plated Adam LaRoche. That will not happen tonight. I guarantee it.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
If it does, will you write tomorrow’s game preview in some alternate language? :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
If Kelly Johnson hits a HR with Adam LaRoche on base tonight with the batting order as posted above, I will write tomorrow’s game preview in the most outrageous language suggested in the comments. Except for Klingon – we don’t want to look like basement-dwelling nerds. :)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The funny part is, I almost wrote Aramaic in my comment above!
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it should be written in English, but then coded into Enigma or PURPLE.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on May 10, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Scouts out today in Lancaster looking at both teams.
Hoping they were the just there and not actually looking at future trade candidates.
I think a scout is always looking for possible trade candidates
Wouldn’t be doing their job in they were not looking for talent.
Ned and Dallas both seem to share the same level of emotional maturity :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL.. Kemp makes too much, he would be traded to someone else by Beane.
LOL.. Kemp makes too much, he would be traded to someone else by Beane.Or he could be nice and let us have Sheets to cover the salary.
Not Spooky,
Ben Sheets
What’s his contract paying this year?
by 68elcamino427 on May 10, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Give up __ ? prospects
Pay Sheets remaining $8 mil.
Sheets
Kuroda
Kershaw
Billingsley
Ok, do it now.
by 68elcamino427 on May 10, 2010 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
He has had two poor starts this season
His career numbers are for real
by 68elcamino427 on May 10, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I would rather play Ely and wait on Padilla than spend another prospect and get a guy that has shown the ability to pitch really well, then pitch really poorly, then get hurt, so on and so on.
Will Ely make it through the league once before they figure him out?
Put four quality starters into the rotation now and use Padillia as the 5th starter.
The Dodgers can afford it.
by 68elcamino427 on May 10, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
George Sherrill 2010
vs RHB: .444/.556/.815 in 38 PA (.458 BABIP)
vs LHP: .105/.250/.158 in 24 PA (.133 BABIP)
The second time Chad was going to pitch beyond the 6th
was against the Braves last year, he had thrown 78 pitches through 6 and although he had a little trouble in the top of the 6th, Torre let him bat in the bottom of the 5th with two out. That was when Chad singled and then strained his hamstring running down the line.
He came out to pitch, couldn’t, Kuo came in and gave up a 2 run HR to Kelly Johnson and then Broxton blew a rare save at home (allowing a Garrett Anderson single to tie the game) The Dodgers eventually lost in extra-innings.
I believe you, Phil, and I were in Phil’s seats, watching as Jeff Weaver, like Scott Elbert before him, pitched in relief after being announced as Sunday’s starter.
I may have mixed up the order of Elbert & Weaver though.
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 3:30 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Actually Weaver didn't pitch that day
It was Bills, Kuo, Sherrill, Broxton, McDonald, Troncoso (who lost the game) and Elbert
I remember now
Elbert was announced the Sunday starter on Friday (his first MLB start), but pitched in relief that night when needed.
Then Weaver was announced the Sunday starter on Saturday, but ended up warming up in the bullpen (right under us) but never pitched.
Stults ended up starting Sunday.
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Interestingly enough
The NL West still owns the wild card spot for the playoffs. In a way, you would like the Cards and Phils (or someone in the East to stomp their division so you have two shots at a playoff spot)
In the AL, life continues as the AL East will most certainly have two spots barring something strange.
12 straight starts for Russell Martin
Martin C
Kemp CF
Ethier RF
Ramirez LF
Loney 1B
Blake 3B
DeWitt 2B
Carroll SS
Billingsley P
Last non-start was the doubleheader
Martin wil not be allowed to rest until the Dodgers are over .500
by 68elcamino427 on May 10, 2010 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Posada took about 4 years to become the regular catcher in NY
And from 2000-2007, he averaged 128 games started, 136 games played at catcher. No other catcher was close to those numbers, Varitek played catcher in 172 less games than Posada.
Will AJ Ellis catch John Ely?
now that it’s been proven hes not a jinx when it comes to Haeger starts and should be allowed to start again on occasion… Though having to bat vs Dan Haren may not be fair. Maybe Martin will rest Wednesday?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
on Saturday, Torre said he’d “try” to get Martin a day off Monday or Tuesday, so I would guess Martin rests Tuesday. You know, if I were in running a game simulation and needed to know semi-accurate lineups. :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I think this Clive Owen movie was originally going to be about Russell Martin
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
And Ken Griffey Jr?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
by underdog on May 10, 2010 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Speaking of Clive Owen, I liked the movie “Inside Man,” but man that was not what I expected at all!
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
It was great. My weak attempt at a joke aside :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
To put this another way
the last day the Dodgers had at least one game scheduled and Martin didn’t catch was April 23.
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Only because I confuse him with that other guy
The one who married Mel Gibson’s daughter.
I’m old enough that all 20-something blues guitar players sound alike.
I know not of this alternate universe of which you speak. :)
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know if I would like it better on one coast or the other, in terms of watching games. I mean, I am biased, having lived in SoCal all my life, so I’m used to games at 4 & 7, or 10 & 1 on weekends.
I like that NFL Sundays start at 10am (not counting pregame shows), and end at ~8pm. But I might also learn to like games starting relatively later were I used to that.
I am trying to think of apples and apples here, such that if I were on the east coast my favorite team would also be out there. I know it’s hell liking the Dodgers and having the bulk of their games start at 10pm.
by Eric Stephen on May 10, 2010 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
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