Team Preview- San Diego Padres
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
in Team Previews
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PrintSeason Series: First meeting of the year.
The Dodgers travel to San Diego in what feels like a statement series. After finally climbing their way up to .500, the Dodgers get a chance to take on the NL West rival currently sitting atop the standings in the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers have climbed out of the basement by winning their last 4, and 7 out of the last 10. Meanwhile, the Padres have stayed hot winning their past 3 and also winning 7 of the last 10.
Old Friends: Jon Garland
Position Breakdown:
1st Base- Adrian Gonzalez is still very good at baseball. That being said, on the year he hasn't quite been producing to the level he did last season. This season to date, Gonzalez has posted a solid (but hardly other-worldly) wOBA of .363 compared to .402 last season. Power is down quite a bit to an ISO of .195 compared to .275 last season. His defense is solid enough, posting a UZR of 5.0 last season.
2nd Base- David Eckstein remains the scrappy little gamer with a big heart. In truth, Eckstein isn't that much of a disaster as people like to maintain (since he gets praise well above his skill level) but he still doesn't do much at the plate. On the season Eckstein has a wOBA of .313. He's still a below average second baseman as Eckstein posted a UZR of <3.5> last season.
SS- Jerry Hairston is a veteran shortstop who has been a disaster at the plate so far this season. The 34 year old has posted a very poor wOBA .242. It's one thing to be unable to hit for power, but an OBP of .270 is garbage. Hairston also rates as a slightly below average fielder, posting a UZR of <1.0> last season.
3rd Base- Chase Headley is having a nice year so far at the plate, though much of it to date is BABIP driven. Headley enters the series with a wOBA of .353, but with an unsustainable BABIP of .368. Headley hasn't shown much pop this season,with an ISO of .091 and only 2 homeruns. Since switching back to 3rd base, Headley is a much more competent fielder as UZR ranks him as a slightly above average third baseman (compared to being a disastrous left fielder.)
Catcher- Yorvit Torrealba has taken over the starting catching job but has mostly platooned with Nick Hundley. BABIP driven as it may be (BABIP .390) Torrealba has earned the starting job at this point posted a wOBA of .360. Maybe Torrealba will keep it interesting and bait Matt Kemp into shoving him in the face again.
Right Field- Will Venable comes into the weekend series with a really ugly .214 batting average but his wOBA of .328 is more respectable (if below average.) Venable has done a nice job slugging the ball this season with a .204 ISO. Venable plays plus defense posting a UZR of 5.9 last season.
Center Field- Scott Hairston, Jerry's little brother, gets the majority of the starts in center field and has been hitting brilliantly. Out of the gate, Hairston has a wOBA of .388, slugging .521 and hitting 5 homeruns on the year. Hairston is also a competent outfielder with a UZR of 1.7 last season.
Left Field- Kyle Blanks is a second year player who's struggled a bit at the plate this season. Blanks enters with a .180 batting average so the Padres may be a bit impatient with Blanks, but his .313 wOBA (while bad) isn't quite as dreadful. In limited action last season, Blanks was rated as an above average fielder.
Reserves
Nick Hundley platoons with Yorvit Torrealba but hasn't played quite as well as his teammate. Hundley has a wOBA of .324 on the year.
Tony Gwynn has done little with the plate appearances he has had this year with a wOBA of .300 and 1 homerun off the bench.
Matt Stairs- I don't really know much about this guy. I wonder if he has some power.
Starting Pitching for our Series:
Jon Garland had a brief cameo with the Dodgers last season coming over in a waiver deal to bolster the starting pitching before the post-season. Even though Garland cost the Dodgers former prospect Tony Abreu, he was ultimately left off the post-season roster and the Dodgers declined his option in the off-season. On the year, Garland has an insane split between his ERA and x-FIP; entering the series with an ERA 1.71 and x-FIP of 4.53. Hopefully Manny and Andre can facilitate his regression to the mean.
Kevin Correia is slated as the starting pitcher on Saturday despite dealing with awful family issues. Correia has been solid on the year posting an x-FIP of 3.55.
TBA will be called upon for San Diego on Sunday as they attempt to avoid the sweep. Anybody with more up to date pitching probable information than the Dodgers and Padres websites, feel free to post in the comments.
Bullpen:
The Padre bullpen has been fairly solid so far. Closer Heath Bell comes in with an ERA of 1.13 and an x-FIP of 2.82. Bell already has 10 saves on the year. Luke Gregerson leads the bullpen in innings pitched and has been solid as well, posting an ERA of 1.45 and an x-FIP of 2.54.
Series Prediction:
Despite missing the mark on my last prediction, and from getting complaints from some members of the community to stop making predictions, I can't help but call my shot. I think the Dodgers are a better team and are playing their best baseball of the year. The Dodgers seem comfortable playing in the division and (other than starting Ramon Ortiz on Friday) the matchups favor the Dodgers. Dodgers win 2 of 3.
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I am really torn about tonight’s game because I have Jon Garland pitching in my two fantasy leagues. However, if the Padres win I won’t hear the end of it from my mom.
I think the answer is clear regardless. Bench Garland for the good of the fantasy team :)
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
That is what I normally do, unless it is Lincecum
by robotmadeofnails on May 14, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
PECOTA
Current odds:
W L W% AvgW AvgL Division Wild Card Playoffs
Dodgers 17 17 .507 81.7 80.3 15.37968 6.72454 22.10422
Maybe I’m a homer, but I’d take those odds in Vegas if they were offered.
by CarolinaDodger on May 14, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
PECOTA is broke this year
and last year. But very very broke this pre-season as they put out some awful numbers and then kept making modifications which fixed one team but then broke another and this kept on for a few more iterations until most people stopped looking. I would go by Vegas odds or SportsClubStats before I would use Pecota for playoff odds.
I am trying so hard not to get too excited about this series because of the well documented struggles at any stadium in California south of Dodger Stadium. Well, I am pumped and really am not in the mood for a big let down.
My problem is I refuse to see this as a big series despite all evidence pointing to the contrary. While it’s nice to think of “catching” San Diego [dear god] head-to-head, it’s just as likely to occur when they have their inevitable losing streak. It just doesn’t feel like a big series to me. /Eric Karros
Our numbers will be there in the end :)
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
And we’ll be drinking a pina colada at trader vic’s…
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
The San Diego Union-Tribune
still lists Wade LeBlanc starting on Saturday, which I heard on the last Dodger broadcast as well. He’s still on the roster.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
also in both teams’ game notes from the last few days, was LeBlanc starting Saturday Sunday
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
LeBlanc
has been solid since being promoted. Kind of pitcher that off the top of my head will give the Dodgers fits.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Yesterday
was the first day with no new front page content on TBLA since Sunday, February 28, snapping a 73-day streak of new content. Should have moved Phil’s minor-league report (FanPost) to the front page!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I could have posted the series preview yesterday when I finished it, instead of scheduling it to publish this morning. If I knew a record was in jeopardy…
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
If you think this is bad, you should have seen it before I proof read it!
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Puzzled
I can’t say I follow the Padres at all, especially as we haven’t played them yet this year. But if individually, according to Michael’s report, everyone except Scott Hairston has been mediocre or worse so far this year, how is it they’re doing so well? This is separate from the expectation that they’re playing above their real level and will descend in time. If nobody much has been playing well, how has the team been been winning? Are we just missing the good pitchers, or what?
Pitching I guess. Garland has been lucky, but to date his ERA is sub 2.00; which will get it done. Correia has pitched well, Latos was lights out last night. The bullpen has been good too with Bell and Gregerson.
I wouldn’t call AGon mediocre either, just not hitting at the same clip he did last year. Headley has gotten fortunate with BABIP, ditto for Torrealba.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Also Everth Cabrerra is their starting SS
but he’s on the DL, so Haiston has been awful while filling in, but he’s not the normal guy.
This team could actually start hitting better when the pitching starts to normalize as Banks, AGon, Caberra all have the capacity to be better.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Starting pitching
Here are the Padres’ starters this season:
Chris Young: 1 start, 6 IP, 0.00 ERA
Tim Stauffer: 1 start, 5 IP, 0.00 ERA
Wade LeBlanc: 5 starts, 5.6 IP/start, 1.61 ERA
Jon Garland: 7 starts, 6.0 IP/start, 1.71 ERA
Clayton Richard: 7 starts, 6.0 IP/start, 3.21 ERA
Mat Latos: 7 starts, 6.2 IP/start, 3.32 ERA
Kevin Correia: 6 starts, 5.7 IP/start, 3.97 ERA
Total: 34 starts, 5.89 IP/start, 2.65 ERA
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
That kind of pitching will get in you first place
if you don’t have the Giant offense holding you down.
Stauffer is now out with appendicitis.
Chris Young is still out
Glad we are missing Latos
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That ceiling is high
but I think he will replace Peavy just fine.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Richard is one of the pitchers obtained from the White Sox for Peavy.
Adam Russell in in SD’s pen right now. LA has John Ely. The NL West thanks Kenny Williams.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 14, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
True
Kenny has sent quite a few pitchers NL West way. You can also thank him for the Diamondbacks getting Dan Haren since Carter was one of the key pieces in the deal to Oakland.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I think SD has a juiced gun. So you might see Kershaw up to 95 tomorrow. He has also hit 97 there in the past.
He has hit
103 there in the past! (Eric has a great picture of this somewhere, but I can’t find it.)
“That gun is juiced,” Broxton said after being credited with a 103-mph fastball. “It’s just a number.”
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Can I take this pic to court
As evidence that the occifer’s gun wasn’t calibrated when he wrote me that ticket?
PitchFX
Has that pitch as 102.6 mph! Wasn’t too off there.
Andruw Jones
I just consulted the handy-dandy Payroll Worksheet to check this, but did we only get 50% of salary paid back from Texas, or does it extend out over the length of the buyout?
only from Texas in 2009. Anything else he makes from another team, he keeps.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
73%
12% he gets traded to the Dodgers for DeJesus
15% he gets traded to the Angels
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Once SD is out of contention, just bringing pack a prospect might be enough. They won’t offer him arb for next year, will they? There is a 2011 option in his contract according to Cot’s:
$6.75M mutual option ($0.6M buyout if club declines, $0.3M buyout if player declines)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 14, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe SD will not be out of contention
other then last year they always seemed to play better then expected. Kyle Blanks is one guy who might get it going offensively. The bullpen is loaded with quality arms.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
But they have to fall out eventually
because I do not see how they keep Adrian past the deadline. Unless they come up with $$ for a new deal.
I love when great athletes do not succeed with championships
And i am loving all of this LeBron talk today on the radio, internet etc.
I haven’t listened to the radio or done much reading yet, but I bet it is insane. Twitter blew up last night when the Cavs lost.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
You kinda get the sense he’s frustrated playing with nobody around him. I don’t follow the NBA, but I don’t like any of his supporting players.
I have missed most of the playoffs, but he was complete garbage last night.
My twitter = @neufaustcan
At the time I thought it was a great trade
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
That’s why there wasn’t a post yesterday. Too much tragedy. I couldn’t concentrate.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I hearing LeBron to the Bulls or Clippers. My gut says his MJ fandom is such that he feels the need to carry on his legacy.
His best two basketball locations are Bulls or Clippers, but I think it ends up being between Cleveland and New York. I have long thought he would re-sign with the Cavs, but the last week has been shocking and gut-punching enough to give me a lot of doubt.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Adam Morrison's going back to Charlotte next year?
I doubt it, though I doubt he’s back with the Lakers, too. ;-) But yeah, LeBron should be careful what he wishes for.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I can't see the Clippers
If he leaves Cleveland, he’s going to a team where he thinks he can win. Winning requires ownership that knows how to assemble a supporting cast, and Sterling has demonstrated that he doesn’t know how to do that.
by MartinGreen on May 14, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Cast is already there in LAC. No further movement by Sterling is required at this point.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
You got the right city just the wrong team. Bynum and Odom for James in a sign and trade deal. Can you imagine James, Bryant, and Gasol together that team would be unstoppable.
That would (a) never happen, and (b) never work
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
The salaries match up on espn trade machine. Cleveland gets to reload with what some call a franchise center (I have my questions about him, since he can never stay healthy) and a very versatile forward in Odom. And, I think that James would fit in nicely he would not have to be the man he could be #2 behind Kobe and be coached by Phil. The pressure would not be on him it would be on Kobe and Pau. So he could run the 1,2, or 3. resign fisher or brown and he have got a team that would win over the 72 games of the Bulls.
I love when people point out that any center can’t stay healthy. Ever notice how no centers can stay healthy? Maybe it has something to do with them being 7 feet tall and working a job where it requires them to jump up and down on hardwood every night.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Seriously.. nobody realizes that these men are mutants! How many normal people are 7 feet tall with size 20 shoes. It is just natural that they would physically breakdown, and even perish at an early age, etc.
Robert Parrish and Nate Thurmund laugh at you puny minions
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
As does Kareem
and the multitude of other Giants who were able to withstand the rigors of court and play game after game.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Unless Kareem in his prime is available, then it doesn’t make sense to run of Bynum because “he can never stay healthy.”
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
You are delusional
Lebron will be signing someplace where he will be the man. He has been the man since he became a teenager, and that’s not changing anytime soon.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
and there will always be pressure on Lebron until he wins a title, no matter where he ends up.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
And, this would take a lot of pressure off of him. He has proven that he is more Magic than MJ. If he wants to win this would be the best spot for him.
You underestimate the ego of Kobe Bean Bryant. He has enough trouble getting the ball to the big men on the Lakers. Good luck having him willingly defer to Lebron.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I really think that he would play with LeBron because he would know that it is still his team. You don’t think that if Buss and Mitch and Phil came to Kobe to say hey we have a chance to get LeBron would you be ok with this he would say no. I don’t want to play with him? He would take a lot of pressure off of Kobe and allow him to not have to carry the team all the time. And, he would be able to score even easier than before.
For those same reasons, Lebron will not be signing here. He will either stay in Cleveland, or go somewhere else, but LBJ will be the top dog wherever he decides to play.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I looked up “delusionalr” in the dictionary and it said “example: vadodger”.
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Ego's can not co-exist
if they could then James would simply hook up with Wade in Miami.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
LBJ is not joining another superstar. Especially not Kobe.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Come on Mike
LeBron would be signing a contract for the long term, he’d be a fool to put his future with DTS.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
To be clear, I think there is exactly 0% chance that LBJ signs with the Clippers and there are several arguments against it (with DTS being the glaring problem.) But the lack of talent around excuse is not the reason (as it wouldn’t be true) and of all the problems DTS has had, spending money has not been one of them these past 6 years and signing LBJ to a max deal would only add to that.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
So they are going to go after somebody. Who do you want? I want Bosh but he does not really fit in with this roster.
I expect them to go after everyone, get no one
and build a stupid team. Because that is what we do.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
he doesn't fit
because BG is here? The guy who missed the whole year when he took a knee to his knee. Yeah I’m really confident this guy can hold up banging with the big boys in real games.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
In that case, Toronto would do a sign and trade for you this minute if you were willing to unload Griffin for Bosh. Would you do it?
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes
I’ll take bird in hand, I’m not a big fan of NBA players who miss a complete year to injury. David Robinson is the only one I can think of off hand who came back to be a super star. The Clippers can’t afford for BG to be just good he has to be great, Bosh is great. So yes.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I would hesitate to call David Robinson a superstar after he missed 76 games in 1997, although he was very good and averaged 21 & 10 his first year back.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Who do I want at max money? James or Wade.
Everybody else would be overpaying. What I would try to do? Trade Baron to NYK for Eddy Curry. Trade rights to 2012 Minny draft pick for Rubio. Build young team around Griff, EJ and Rubio and preserve cap space. Next offseason when everybody has blown their load this offseason overpaying for the likes of Rudy Gay or Amare, sign Carmelo. Hope Rubio and Griffin are the real deal, if so I’ve put together a team that can compete for a title.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I saw that. I’m about ready to turn this Clipper ship into all Euro’s. Rumor is, Sofo is coming over to join the Clips, maybe the Clips can sign Childress as well to play the 3 and then trade for Rubio. Oh, and then sign Dirk so he can play with fellow german Kaman.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd be much more interested in signing Childress
for our three spot then hoping the 2nd rate 3’s in the draft could be any better then what Thornton was giving us.
Rubio, Gordon, Childres, Griffin, Kaman, Jordan would be a nice start.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
For some reason, I don’t actually believe that’s true. I’ll look into it….
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Completely agree. I don’t understand this irrational belief that a guy drafted at 8 is going to be a starting quality SF in the NBA.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
It is to our benefit
the longer he plays in Europe while under Minny control. We still own their 2012 draft pick which will no longer be protected.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
As a Clipper trade
best ever even if the draft pick never works out. Marko Jaric still makes me laugh that Minny wanted him so badly.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the owner say
his wife and said he if can pull that in, he must be something special
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I always liked the Tyson Chandler and Brian Skinner for Elton Brand trade. The Clippers did well in that deal IMO
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Elton Bland
Yeah that has to be the best, especially because he left and gave us BG, and didn’t hogtie us with that Philly contract.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
2nd best year ever as a Clipper fan
Opening night against the Supersonics was so sweet.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
In a fantasy league in 1997-98, I traded a washed up Mitch Richmond for Latrell Sprewell.
I always thought that was the greatest trade ever, and unfortunately I was proven right about a week later, when Latrell choked PJ :(
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I mean, they have to be. Rubio is not playing for them and they already have a small army of other point guards. The final nail in the coffin is if Minnesota wins the draft lottery (2nd worst record last season.) Naturally they will take yet another PG in Wall.
I think Minny would take that 2012 first round draft pick back from the Clippers for Rubio and not even flinch.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
The only problem is that DTS is the owner and unless he cleans up his image of being a slumlord I don’t think that a lot of people will want to play for him. And, they don’t have a GM right now in place to make any of those moves.
No but many
don’t want to play 2nd rate in a city. And that is what it is.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
The Clips will always be second rate..
but if there was ever a chance to change that. Kobe is getting old, Phil is not staying forever…
Yes I am
I’m going to be the guy who lives to 150 who was already born. Fuck Rob Lowe
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I think that may be true for guys like LBJ
who can basically pick whatever team he wants. Most every other free agent will follow the money.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Curry has an $11.2 MM option
Just a hunch, but I’m guessing he exercises it.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Spending money is not the problem
playing for DTS is the problem when you have a choice. As a player you cannot control the owner and DTS background including his handling of Dunleavy this year still show a man who will get in his own way.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
LBJ goes to the Clips and starts a new relationship with new head coach Phil Jackson!
by Julio Nievas on May 14, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Phil hates DTS
and would never coach for him. I’m not sure if non Clipper fans realize just how big a scum bag DTS is.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
On the Clipper board, someone made the argument that CHI is a no-win spot for LBJ. If he wins there, its expected and after all its what Michael did. If he doesn’t win as much as MJ, it will be his legacy.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
And all they had was owner who was bilked by someone
After 22 home games, attendance at Citi Field is down 6,852 fans a game, the largest decline by number in Major League Baseball. That translates to an average of 31,892 fans at games this season compared with 38,744 last season.
In 2009, the Dodgers ended up with a per game tickets sold average of 46,440, currently they are second in the NL, averaging 43,749 (in 16 home games). However, expect that number to rise as their big promotions (bobbleheads) start during the next home stand plus in June you have the Angels and Yankees coming. I would expect the Dodgers to challenge the Phillies (who lead the NL but have sold just over 20,000 tickets overall than the Dodgers.
Again, I will always dispute anyone who says the product on the field affects the Dodger attendance, sure it does to a certain extent but not as much as other places. And certainly while pricing has affected some sales, with the largest stadium in baseball, they have enough low priced options to keep the numbers high.
One more thing
In 2008, their last year in Shea, the Mets averaged 51,165 tickets sold per game.
Which means they are now selling almost 20,000 less tickets per game than they did just 2 years ago. I don’t care how much more you are selling the tickets for, that has to be a huge hit in their revenues.
by bhsportsguy on May 14, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Revenue from tickets is probably about the same; one of the problems with the new stadium is that the ticket prices went way up.
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
But you lose the 10-20 per game in concessions
and other on-site revenue.
My point is that people complain that the McCourts raised ticket prices, but it did not affect his total sales, he knew he had an under-priced product and he priced it accordingly.
The Mets thought they were the Yankees and lost.
by bhsportsguy on May 14, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Note the “Revenue from tickets” caveat in my comment.
I agree that the non-ticket revenue is important, and probably a higher number. But you can’t get that without the ticket revenue. In other words, a $ of ticket revenue is more important than a $ of non-ticket revenue because the ticket $ can generate other $.
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree
I just think the Mets should have done a lot more studies on this because even if the revenue is up 10% (from Shea to Citi) their overall numbers are probably a lot less than that.
by bhsportsguy on May 14, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
He did have an under priced product
but I think he went to far. Laker tickets can almost 100% of the time be sold in the after market for at least the amount you paid for them. Dodger tickets other then the premium events can usually be purchased in after markets for less then the original cost.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
But the key is he already sold those tickets
Now, will it affect next year’s sales. We’ll see.
by bhsportsguy on May 14, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I haven't been keeping up
but I’ve heard announcers say that MLB attendance is a problem this year. I had no idea the Mets have dropped so much. Do you think it is the cost of the product now?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Its probably a couple of things
I say this all the time but I think I will do a post on this over the weekend.
by bhsportsguy on May 14, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Jameson Taillon is said to be the best high school pitcher ever. The Nats are going to have a tough choice because this guy is basically a Strasburg clone.
Here's an exercise
Every year doesn’t produce “the best ________________ ever”
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Look for another SI “Chosen One” cover soon.
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
For scouts it does
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Wrong link. Which incidentally leads to former Dodger pick Kyle Blair.
by silverwidow on May 14, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
No, no hes not. Not even freaking close. Comparing Harper to Taillon is like comparing Joe Mauer to Latos. They arent in the same stratosphere.
by UCLADodger32 on May 14, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Is Rob Rasmussen
A 2nd or 3rd round pick
by bhsportsguy on May 14, 2010 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
hopefully 2. His size might hurt him and drop him a round, but he has big league stuff.
by UCLADodger32 on May 14, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Other attendance observations
Eric, this may amuse you or not.
In 2003, the Padres last year at Qualcomm, they averaged 25.203 per game.
In 2010, their seventh season at Petco, they are currently averaging 22,051.
But the revenue has to double
because Petco is an expensive ticket.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I loved
this article title from the Times Dodger blog
Even though I am very cautious about our pitching matchup tonight but very optimistic with the offense I am still holding to every hope of a sweep(please, please, please). Just wondering, will Weaver be the long reliever if Ortiz goes down in flames?
Wow - I hope at least he got a set of steak knives
First Prize is the NBA Title, second prize, your fired.
Not shocking; i was in disbelief that they quit in the last 90 seconds, not even fouling down 9.
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
so does LeBron get to pick his new coach, wherever that will be?
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on May 14, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
He just hasn’t been fired yet. They are still “evaluating”
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
going to vegas tonight
Should I put money on the Dodgers?
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on May 14, 2010 11:23 AM PDT reply actions
wasnt gonna do anything big. maybe $20. just thought ortiz would skew the odds, but its petco so who knows what will happen
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on May 14, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course you should in that case.
I love betting on baseball in Vegas. Bet all underdogs that you see value in. The Dodgers certainly qualify. Don’t bet favorites.
by Michael White on May 14, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd bet on the over right now for games won
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I’d put it on a blonde at Sapphire or Olympic Gardens.
by KellyStephen on May 14, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey guys,
I asked this yesterday. Anyone know any great BBQ in Pasadena?
by robotmadeofnails on May 14, 2010 12:04 PM PDT reply actions
Amazing cricket
I know nobody here cares, but the most amazing cricket game just finished in St. Lucia in the West indies. The World Twenty20 tournament is being played there – this is the bastardized form of the game that takes less time than a baseball game (about 2.5 hours) but can be really exciting. This was the second semifinal , between Australia, the powerhouse of cricket, and Pakistan, who excel at this form of the game. Pakistan, batting first, built up a huge score, of 191 (second highest in the tournament). Australia got off to a poor start, and stayed pretty mediocre almost right the way through, until about 80% of their innings was done. Then, with only lower-order batsmen left, they picked up velocity. Right at the end, in their last “over” (normally 14 or so runs would be the most you could hope for), the last batter got 22 runs, with 3 “home run” equivalents (each counting 6 runs for hitting the ball out of the park) and they won the game on the second-to-last ball. Now they play a resurgent England in the final on Sunday.
I had to follow all this just via the BBC text blog. Until a few days ago they were broadcasting the live BBC radio feed by mistake – it’s not supposed to be available outside the UK. Unfortunately they caught it and stopped it.
Whew!
Watching it how? I know there are expensive paid subscription websites to get international cricket. Or have they found another way? With the Final coming up on Sunday, I’d love to know. The West Indies team got knocked out a couple of days ago – is that what got them pissed? Guyana’s a big component, and some of the games were being played there too. I can’t see why they’d care too much about Australia. In fact, apparently so many people are annoyed with Australia’s dominance that most of the spectators at the match today (local West Indians) were apparently cheering for Pakistan – even some (east) Indians! (Who were knocked out earlier.)
Indians cheering for Pakistan
maybe hope for the world after all. Never quite grasped the hatred until a good Pakistani friend saw an Indian and I watched his eyes grow dark even though he had never met the person. Mind you, this was a very intelligent man but the culture of hatred was so encompassing he could not get past it.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I could not figure out how these Indian guys were from Guyana. I had to go do some research on that it was all from the slave trade/sugar plantations in the old days. Wiki tells me Guyana population is 40%+ east indians.
Throughout the West Indies, especially Trinidad and Jamaica. (The writer V.S. Naipual, for example.) When slavery and the slave trade was ended in the British Empire (1833, I believe), plantation owners looked to other parts of the British Empire, namely India, for indentured workers. It wasn’t much better than slavery. The workers basically sold themselves for less-than-subsistence wages, and until they could buy themselves out, which was never-never, they were bound to the plantation, the company store, etc. This carried right up into the 20th century.
He takes a break from being a pompous, overbearing jerk
and produces the kind of column he is much better at writing. Features my daughter’s alma mater. Now excuse me for a moment, there is something in my eye.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
That is the stuff that Bill is good at
Now we know where your hard earned money went:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I have spent a small fortune on education
Good thing I only have one kid.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I am probably wrong but I don't recall this being a problem
Until the sequel to Eric’s favorite baseball movie.
Wasn’t Mackey Sasser before Major League II?
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I remember Sasser having that problem
just read about it this morning on rotowire. How bizarre. Salty was the main man in the Teixeira trade but they did much better with the other parts of the deal in Andrus and Feliz. Even Harrison is in the rotation. Probably the best prospect for stud trade since the Colon / Sizemore, Philips deal.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Right, the throw in
as I recall Philips was the big fish at the time
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Unless he Haeger’s it, I suspect Ortiz will pitch again in 5 days
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Could be one of those things
where Ortiz struggles, Haeger bails him out so they give Haeger one last shot, he pulls a Bob Walk to lead the team to the World Series.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I have good tickets that night
was hoping before Torre mixed it up a bit that it was going to be Kershaw… oh well.
Torre mixed it up a bit
and I was happy to get a Kershaw start for a game I had tickets for. Unfortunately, it was the Brewers game. Oof.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Is anyone going to Tuesday's game?
The Ethier Bobble-head game. I’m definitely looking forward to it, I’m just not sure who is pitching. Can anyone tell me who is?
Furcal not yet official
Game notes just released, and it seems like the Dodgers are waiting until the last minute to make the corresponding move again:
Shortstop Rafael Furcal is expected to be reinstated from the disabled list prior to tonight’s game after being sidelined with a strained left hamstring since the first game of the April 27 doubleheader at New York
FWIW, the game notes also list Ely Monday and Kuroda Tuesday (for lvdown)
Is Nick Green in the house
I am sure Ned does not like the idea losing any player (since they would have to DFA Green).
I don’t think DeWitt is going anywhere.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
DeWitt: .278 / .375 / .344 / .719
and improving in May. He’s not headed anywhere.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Nick Green is far more likely to be DFA’d than DeWitt getting optioned
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
What would be the point?
In 15 days you end up facing the same Nick Green question anyway. (Did I miss something? Is Belliard nursing a injury that is affecting his play and/or availability?)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Belliard was battling a groin injury last weekend, but he also started Tuesday and went 2 for 4 with a double, a walk, and 3 RBI
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I would handicap the odds like this:
Green DFA 75%
Belliard DL 20%
DeWitt optioned 5%
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
and I think I’m being overly liberal with the 5% chance for DeWitt getting optioned (I think it’s 0%)
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
The game notes are not what made it insane. You are severely underestimating how much the organization likes Blake DeWitt.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you’re underestimating how much they like Carroll. There is no doubt in my mind that Carroll as the everyday 2nd baseman would be fine by management.
You're right
how silly of me.
Starts at 2B
DeWitt 26
Carroll 4
Before Furcal went on DL…
Starts at 2B
DeWitt 14
Carroll 4
If anything Carroll’s time at SS has eliminated the need for Nick Green.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh
and before Kensai does a Fan Post with an animated GIF of Carroll’s (lack of) range, I was speaking that in the organization’s eyes Carroll did a good enough job at SS to make Green redundant.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Don’t know if that helps your point. DeWitt, as long as he was in the majors, was going to start almost everyday. They didn’t want him on the bench.
But now that Carroll has gotten extended playing time and has done pretty well (Ned loves batting average, remember), they would probably feel more comfortable with handing him an everyday job. Not only that but Carroll’s defense at 2nd is better than DeWitt’s in everyone’s opinion, I’m sure.
I would handicap it like this
Green DFA 99%
Silverwidow finding another Strasburg 99%
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 14, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Ely Monday
Sounds like a TV series private detective. Is it time for private detective TV dramas to make a comeback?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Furthermore
There are profiles of 13 batters in the Dodger game notes.
Furcal is one of the 13.
Nick Green is not.
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
He did have all of 2 PA and 4 defensive innings so far!
by Eric Stephen on May 14, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Though I have to say
Joe was talking about Green having started all those games for Boston as if that meant something.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Well that could explain
Why guys like Angel Berroa and Mark Hendrickson still are in the majors. MLB experience is something front offices across baseball does look at very carefully.
I'll welcome back Rafy
but I thought Carroll did a bangup job during his absence for a guy who has barely played SS. Reminded me of when the Angels made Eckstien the starting SS even though he had only been a 2nd baseman upto that point.
I’ll not say a mean thing about Carroll the rest of the month.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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