FanPost

Ides of May, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SD C.Kershaw vs K.Correia LAN 54.75% 53.17%

 

Notes:  Big mid-May win for the Dodgers on Friday.  The pitching matchups for the series become a little more favorable for the Dodgers but the two remaining games are likely to be thrillers like last night's game.  Both Vegas and the simulator have the Dodgers as slight favorites to pull within three games of the Padres.  Vegas has the Over/Under at 6-1/2 runs.  The simulator says to take the under.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 2-1 &nbsp 51 SD 7-1 &nbsp 101 SD 10-4
2 SD 3-2 &nbsp 52 SD 7-3 &nbsp 102 LAN 12-2
3 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 53 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 103 SD 11-2
4 SD 1-0 &nbsp 54 SD 7-6 &nbsp 104 LAN 11-4
5 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 55 SD 7-4 &nbsp 105 SD 11-3
6 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 56 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 106 SD 9-6
7 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 57 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 107 SD 9-8
8 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 58 SD 7-0 &nbsp 108 LAN 10-6
9 SD 4-3 &nbsp 59 SD 7-5 &nbsp 109 LAN 12-1
10 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 60 SD 8-1 &nbsp 110 SD 10-5
11 SD 3-1 &nbsp 61 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 111 LAN 12-0
12 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 62 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 112 LAN 9-8
13 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 63 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 113 SD 11-0
14 SD 2-0 &nbsp 64 SD 8-2 &nbsp 114 LAN 12-3
15 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 65 SD 8-3 &nbsp 115 SD 9-7
16 SD 4-2 &nbsp 66 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 116 LAN 11-5
17 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 67 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 117 SD 12-1
18 SD 5-4 &nbsp 68 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 118 SD 12-2
19 SD 4-1 &nbsp 69 SD 8-4 &nbsp 119 SD 11-1
20 SD 3-0 &nbsp 70 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 120 SD 11-5
21 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 71 SD 9-2 &nbsp 121 LAN 13-1
22 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 72 SD 8-5 &nbsp 122 LAN 12-4
23 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 73 SD 8-0 &nbsp 123 SD 11-4
24 SD 5-2 &nbsp 74 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 124 SD 10-6
25 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 75 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 125 SD 10-7
26 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 76 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 126 LAN 13-0
27 SD 5-3 &nbsp 77 SD 8-7 &nbsp 127 LAN 10-7
28 SD 4-0 &nbsp 78 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 128 SD 12-3
29 SD 5-1 &nbsp 79 SD 9-1 &nbsp 129 LAN 11-6
30 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 80 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 130 LAN 13-4
31 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 81 SD 9-3 &nbsp 131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 82 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 132 SD 12-0
33 SD 6-5 &nbsp 83 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 133 SD 10-9
34 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 84 SD 9-0 &nbsp 134 LAN 11-7
35 SD 6-3 &nbsp 85 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 135 SD 12-4
36 SD 5-0 &nbsp 86 SD 8-6 &nbsp 136 LAN 10-8
37 SD 6-2 &nbsp 87 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 137 SD 12-5
38 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 88 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 138 LAN 13-3
39 SD 6-1 &nbsp 89 SD 9-4 &nbsp 139 LAN 12-5
40 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 90 SD 10-2 &nbsp 140 LAN 14-1
41 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 91 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 141 SD 10-8
42 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 92 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 142 LAN 12-6
43 SD 6-4 &nbsp 93 LAN 11-0 &nbsp 143 SD 11-6
44 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 94 SD 10-1 &nbsp 144 LAN 13-5
45 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 95 LAN 11-3 &nbsp 145 SD 13-2
46 SD 6-0 &nbsp 96 SD 9-5 &nbsp 146 LAN 14-2
47 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 97 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 147 LAN 10-9
48 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 98 SD 10-0 &nbsp 148 SD 13-0
49 SD 7-2 &nbsp 99 SD 10-3 &nbsp 149 SD 13-3
50 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 100 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 150 LAN 14-0
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