FanPost

Ides of May, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SD C.Kershaw vs K.Correia LAN 54.75% 53.17%

 

Notes:  Big mid-May win for the Dodgers on Friday.  The pitching matchups for the series become a little more favorable for the Dodgers but the two remaining games are likely to be thrillers like last night's game.  Both Vegas and the simulator have the Dodgers as slight favorites to pull within three games of the Padres.  Vegas has the Over/Under at 6-1/2 runs.  The simulator says to take the under.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 2-1   51 SD 7-1   101 SD 10-4
2 SD 3-2   52 SD 7-3   102 LAN 12-2
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 8-0   103 SD 11-2
4 SD 1-0   54 SD 7-6   104 LAN 11-4
5 LAN 3-2   55 SD 7-4   105 SD 11-3
6 LAN 1-0   56 LAN 7-5   106 SD 9-6
7 LAN 3-1   57 LAN 8-3   107 SD 9-8
8 LAN 2-0   58 SD 7-0   108 LAN 10-6
9 SD 4-3   59 SD 7-5   109 LAN 12-1
10 LAN 3-0   60 SD 8-1   110 SD 10-5
11 SD 3-1   61 LAN 7-6   111 LAN 12-0
12 LAN 4-2   62 LAN 9-1   112 LAN 9-8
13 LAN 4-3   63 LAN 9-2   113 SD 11-0
14 SD 2-0   64 SD 8-2   114 LAN 12-3
15 LAN 4-1   65 SD 8-3   115 SD 9-7
16 SD 4-2   66 LAN 8-4   116 LAN 11-5
17 LAN 4-0   67 LAN 9-0   117 SD 12-1
18 SD 5-4   68 LAN 9-3   118 SD 12-2
19 SD 4-1   69 SD 8-4   119 SD 11-1
20 SD 3-0   70 LAN 8-5   120 SD 11-5
21 LAN 5-2   71 SD 9-2   121 LAN 13-1
22 LAN 5-1   72 SD 8-5   122 LAN 12-4
23 LAN 5-3   73 SD 8-0   123 SD 11-4
24 SD 5-2   74 LAN 9-4   124 SD 10-6
25 LAN 5-4   75 LAN 10-1   125 SD 10-7
26 LAN 5-0   76 LAN 10-2   126 LAN 13-0
27 SD 5-3   77 SD 8-7   127 LAN 10-7
28 SD 4-0   78 LAN 8-6   128 SD 12-3
29 SD 5-1   79 SD 9-1   129 LAN 11-6
30 LAN 6-1   80 LAN 10-0   130 LAN 13-4
31 LAN 6-0   81 SD 9-3   131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 6-2   82 LAN 10-3   132 SD 12-0
33 SD 6-5   83 LAN 8-7   133 SD 10-9
34 LAN 6-3   84 SD 9-0   134 LAN 11-7
35 SD 6-3   85 LAN 9-5   135 SD 12-4
36 SD 5-0   86 SD 8-6   136 LAN 10-8
37 SD 6-2   87 LAN 11-1   137 SD 12-5
38 LAN 6-4   88 LAN 11-2   138 LAN 13-3
39 SD 6-1   89 SD 9-4   139 LAN 12-5
40 LAN 7-1   90 SD 10-2   140 LAN 14-1
41 LAN 7-2   91 LAN 10-4   141 SD 10-8
42 LAN 7-0   92 LAN 9-6   142 LAN 12-6
43 SD 6-4   93 LAN 11-0   143 SD 11-6
44 LAN 6-5   94 SD 10-1   144 LAN 13-5
45 LAN 7-3   95 LAN 11-3   145 SD 13-2
46 SD 6-0   96 SD 9-5   146 LAN 14-2
47 LAN 7-4   97 LAN 10-5   147 LAN 10-9
48 LAN 8-1   98 SD 10-0   148 SD 13-0
49 SD 7-2   99 SD 10-3   149 SD 13-3
50 LAN 8-2   100 LAN 9-7   150 LAN 14-0
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