May 16th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 10:15 PM)

Notes:  The Dodgers have impressively taken the first two games of the series and now look to Chad Billingsley to help provide the sweep and pull within two games of the Padres.  Both Vegas and the simulator have this game close to being a toss up.  Vegas has the Dodgers as slim favorites, while the simulator has the Padres as slim favorites.  Vegas has the Over/Under at 7-1/2 runs and the simulator once again says to take the under.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores