FanPost

May 17th, Astros vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Astros and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 10:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
HOU LAN W.Rodriguez vs J.Ely LAN 61.39% 54.81%

 

Notes:  The Dodgers, head home to battle an Astros team that has had a rough beginning to their season, having won seven games in a row.  There is a rather large descrepancy between the Vegas odds and the simulator on Monday's game.  Vegas gives the Dodgers an extra 6.5% chance of winning this game.  I think a lot of this is based on the emotion of the Dodgers riding a long win streak and perhaps the public not realizing that Wandy Rodriguez is a pretty decent pitcher.  Rodriguez has been a little unlucky having given up a BABIP of .351 on the young season.  Last year Rodriguez was a 4.0 WAR pitcher.  Broxton and Guo are doubtful for this game.  Get you game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 HOU 7-1   101 LAN 9-7
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 7-5   102 HOU 10-5
3 LAN 4-3   53 HOU 6-0   103 LAN 11-1
4 HOU 3-2   54 LAN 8-2   104 HOU 11-3
5 HOU 2-1   55 HOU 7-6   105 LAN 11-4
6 HOU 4-3   56 LAN 8-1   106 HOU 10-6
7 LAN 3-1   57 HOU 8-3   107 HOU 9-8
8 LAN 5-4   58 HOU 8-2   108 LAN 12-2
9 LAN 1-0   59 LAN 7-0   109 HOU 10-0
10 LAN 4-2   60 LAN 8-3   110 HOU 11-2
11 HOU 3-1   61 HOU 8-1   111 LAN 11-5
12 HOU 4-2   62 HOU 8-4   112 LAN 11-0
13 LAN 4-1   63 HOU 7-0   113 LAN 10-6
14 HOU 1-0   64 LAN 8-4   114 HOU 11-4
15 LAN 2-0   65 HOU 8-5   115 LAN 10-9
16 LAN 5-3   66 LAN 8-7   116 HOU 11-1
17 HOU 5-4   67 LAN 8-5   117 HOU 11-5
18 HOU 4-1   68 LAN 9-2   118 LAN 12-1
19 HOU 5-3   69 LAN 8-0   119 HOU 12-2
20 LAN 5-2   70 HOU 9-2   120 LAN 12-4
21 LAN 3-0   71 LAN 9-3   121 HOU 11-0
22 HOU 2-0   72 LAN 9-1   122 HOU 11-6
23 HOU 5-2   73 HOU 9-3   123 LAN 10-7
24 LAN 6-5   74 HOU 8-6   124 HOU 10-7
25 LAN 5-1   75 LAN 8-6   125 HOU 12-4
26 HOU 3-0   76 LAN 9-4   126 HOU 12-3
27 LAN 4-0   77 HOU 8-7   127 HOU 10-8
28 HOU 5-1   78 HOU 8-0   128 HOU 12-1
29 HOU 6-3   79 HOU 9-1   129 LAN 10-8
30 HOU 4-0   80 HOU 9-4   130 HOU 12-5
31 LAN 6-3   81 LAN 9-0   131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 6-2   82 HOU 9-5   132 LAN 11-6
33 HOU 6-2   83 HOU 10-2   133 LAN 13-1
34 LAN 6-4   84 LAN 10-3   134 LAN 12-0
35 HOU 6-4   85 LAN 10-1   135 LAN 12-5
36 LAN 6-1   86 HOU 10-3   136 HOU 13-2
37 HOU 6-5   87 LAN 9-5   137 HOU 10-9
38 LAN 5-0   88 LAN 10-2   138 LAN 12-3
39 HOU 6-1   89 HOU 9-6   139 HOU 11-7
40 HOU 5-0   90 LAN 10-4   140 LAN 13-3
41 LAN 7-6   91 LAN 9-6   141 LAN 11-7
42 LAN 7-2   92 HOU 9-7   142 LAN 13-4
43 LAN 7-3   93 HOU 9-0   143 HOU 12-0
44 HOU 7-2   94 HOU 10-1   144 HOU 13-3
45 LAN 7-1   95 HOU 10-4   145 HOU 11-9
46 HOU 7-3   96 LAN 10-5   146 LAN 12-6
47 LAN 6-0   97 LAN 9-8   147 HOU 13-4
48 LAN 7-4   98 LAN 10-0   148 HOU 11-8
49 HOU 7-4   99 LAN 11-2   149 HOU 12-6
50 HOU 7-5   100 LAN 11-3   150 LAN 14-2
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