FanPost

May 19th, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SD LAN J.Garland vs R.Ortiz LAN 54.13% 52.76%

Notes: The Dodgers will be going for their nth (macro) win in a row, where n > 0 and n < 100. Nothing can stop the Dodgers, not even Ramon Ortiz. First place is within the Dodgers' grasp. Padres bullpen is worn out and could use one of Jon Garland's pattened 6+ inning 3 runs given up games. Vegas over/under is around 8.3 runs. The simulator agrees with a likely 8 run combined output. Get your 10th win in a row game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 51 LAN 5-0 101 SD 9-8
2 LAN 4-3 52 SD 8-3 102 LAN 9-0
3 LAN 2-1 53 SD 8-2 103 SD 10-6
4 LAN 5-4 54 LAN 7-1 104 SD 11-3
5 SD 3-2 55 SD 8-4 105 SD 11-4
6 SD 4-3 56 SD 6-0 106 SD 11-2
7 LAN 4-2 57 LAN 8-7 107 LAN 11-1
8 SD 2-1 58 LAN 8-2 108 LAN 10-6
9 LAN 3-1 59 LAN 8-3 109 LAN 11-4
10 SD 4-2 60 LAN 6-0 110 LAN 10-7
11 SD 3-1 61 LAN 8-4 111 LAN 10-0
12 SD 5-4 62 SD 8-5 112 LAN 11-5
13 LAN 6-5 63 LAN 8-5 113 SD 10-7
14 LAN 5-3 64 SD 8-1 114 LAN 10-9
15 SD 5-3 65 SD 9-3 115 SD 10-0
16 LAN 4-1 66 SD 8-6 116 LAN 12-2
17 SD 4-1 67 LAN 8-1 117 LAN 11-6
18 SD 5-2 68 LAN 8-6 118 SD 11-5
19 LAN 5-2 69 SD 7-0 119 LAN 12-3
20 LAN 1-0 70 SD 9-2 120 SD 11-1
21 SD 6-4 71 LAN 9-3 121 SD 11-6
22 LAN 6-3 72 SD 8-7 122 LAN 10-8
23 SD 6-3 73 SD 9-4 123 SD 12-3
24 LAN 2-0 74 LAN 9-2 124 SD 10-8
25 SD 6-5 75 SD 9-5 125 SD 12-2
26 LAN 6-4 76 LAN 9-4 126 LAN 12-4
27 SD 5-1 77 SD 9-1 127 LAN 12-1
28 LAN 3-0 78 LAN 7-0 128 LAN 12-5
29 SD 6-2 79 LAN 10-3 129 SD 12-4
30 SD 3-0 80 LAN 9-1 130 LAN 11-0
31 LAN 6-2 81 SD 8-0 131 SD 11-0
32 LAN 5-1 82 LAN 9-6 132 SD 12-1
33 LAN 7-6 83 LAN 9-8 133 SD 12-5
34 SD 2-0 84 LAN 9-5 134 LAN 12-6
35 SD 1-0 85 SD 10-2 135 SD 10-9
36 SD 6-1 86 SD 9-6 136 SD 11-7
37 SD 7-2 87 LAN 8-0 137 LAN 13-3
38 SD 4-0 88 SD 10-3 138 LAN 13-2
39 LAN 4-0 89 LAN 10-2 139 LAN 11-7
40 SD 7-3 90 LAN 9-7 140 LAN 11-8
41 LAN 7-4 91 SD 10-1 141 SD 12-6
42 LAN 6-1 92 SD 10-5 142 LAN 13-1
43 SD 7-4 93 SD 9-7 143 SD 11-8
44 SD 7-5 94 SD 10-4 144 LAN 11-10
45 LAN 7-3 95 LAN 10-4 145 LAN 12-0
46 SD 5-0 96 SD 9-0 146 LAN 13-5
47 LAN 7-5 97 LAN 10-1 147 SD 13-3
48 SD 7-1 98 LAN 11-3 148 SD 13-2
49 LAN 7-2 99 LAN 10-5 149 SD 13-4
50 SD 7-6 100 LAN 11-2 150 LAN 13-4

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.