Nine Days Before We Worry About 5th Starter Again
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 11:45 AM PDT
in News
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PrintWe need a palette cleanser after last night's game left a bad taste in the mouths of Dodger fans everywhere. Some good news: with an off day Monday, the Dodger starting pitchers over the next eight games will likely be:
| Day | Date | Starter | Opp |
| today |
May 20 |
Clayton Kershaw |
SD |
| Fri | May 21 | Chad Billingsley | Det |
| Sat | May 22 | John Ely | Det |
| Sun | May 23 | Hiroki Kuroda | Det |
| Tue | May 25 | Clayton Kershaw | @Chi |
| Wed | May 26 | Chad Billingsley | @Chi |
| Thu | May 27 | John Ely | @Chi |
| Fri | May 28 | Hiroki Kuroda | @Col |
We don't have to worry about the fifth starter for nine days. Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscias Tragic Illness has an idea who should get that start:
So there’s only one right answer here, and it’s the answer Joe Torre dreads the most. You have to start Carlos Monasterios. The Rule 5 pick has been surprisingly effective as the team’s longman, not allowing more than one earned run in any of his twelve appearances. With the bullpen rounding back into form and Jeff Weaver back, Monasterios’ role as a reliever has lessened, and he already showed he could survive as an emergency starter, allowing one run in four innings against Pittsburgh.
I have to agree with Petriello here, but the good news is I can push that decision to the back of my mind for over a week.
More good news: the Dodgers have won nine of their last 10.
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London
Thank you London for making me laugh
by robotmadeofnails on May 20, 2010 11:48 AM PDT reply actions
Another example of why Bleacher Report sucks
This is an article called
“”http://bleacherreport.com/articles/394678-san-franciscos-search-for-a-new-general-manager" target="new">San Francisco Giants Search for a New General Manager"
It shows up on Google news. If you see that it is “news” and read the headline, you think, “Gosh! The Giants are searching for a new GM! Wow, that’s too bad, I like how sucky Sabean is,” etc. But the upshot is, you think that it is about what the headline implies. Instead it is basically an editorial about why the Giants should can Sabean and then offer Billy Beane a lot of money to make him their GM.
Sheezus.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Link again is
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
May 25th starts a run of 12 consecutive games
Two guys are starting three games, the guys who start the 25th and 26th, and three spots are starting two games. I don’t see committing to the fifth start for three of those starts making any sense whatsoever, so that spot must be skipped with the off day on Monday. I will be stunned if a fifth starter make the opening start of the road trip.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Yeah
Basically by skipping Monday, you limit havng to start the 5th starter to only 3 starts until the third week of June, when Padilla could be back.
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's target June 19 for Padilla
Thu 20-May Kershaw
Fri 21-May Billingsley
Sat 22-May Ely
Sun 23-May Kuroda
Mon 24-May OFF
Tue 25-May Kershaw
Wed 26-May Billingsley
Thu 27-May Ely
Fri 28-May Kuroda
Sat 29-May 5th starter
Sun 30-May Kershaw
Mon 31-May Billingsley
Tue 1-Jun Ely
Wed 2-Jun Kuroda
Thu 3-Jun 5th starter
Fri 4-Jun Kershaw
Sat 5-Jun Billingsley
Sun 6-Jun Ely
Mon 7-Jun Kuroda
Tue 8-Jun 5th starter
Wed 9-Jun Kershaw
Thu 10-Jun OFF
Fri 11-Jun Billingsley (5 days rest)
Sat 12-Jun Ely (5 days rest)
Sun 13-Jun Kuroda (5 days rest)
Mon 14-Jun OFF
Tue 15-Jun Kershaw (5 days rest)
Wed 16-Jun Billingsley
Thu 17-Jun Ely
Fri 18-Jun Kuroda
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow, I can't count
16 consecutive games. That means one guy start four times between the off days of 5/24 and 6/10, as illustrated in Eric’s comment below.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 20, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I would be ok with a combo 5th starter, Monk/Dreamweaver. And vice versa. Ortiz has undone his welcome. I’m not sure if I’m ready for chuck to pitch again. But if we have ro use a 5th starter, I don’t mind losing once every five days or so. I can live with that.
by Skunkburner on May 20, 2010 12:52 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
When Furcal is back he is likely a goner
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Hrm I get no sound with that clip?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I do.
I hear Dudley Moore loud and clear, well clear as that character allows him to be.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
It's an mp3 file
My Firefox on a PC is configured to open that with a QuickTime plug in. Works fine for me.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I messed up. That link/clip plays immediately. (Firefox on an Mac – comes with QuickTime built in, just automatic). I was confusing it with another, video link, I had clicked to earlier in the day. Video worked, no audio. Either that or my sound level was turned down to 0. ;-) Apologies for the confusion.
Holy cow, Braves win!
Down 8-0 in the 2nd inning and down 9-3 in the B9th, they score 7 times and the final four on a pinch hit grand slam by Brooks Conrad. wow! I am impressed.
Ouch, nothing like seeing INF for Cordero’s ERA and WHIP in fantasy
by robotmadeofnails on May 20, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Brooks Conrad
Looking up his minor league record, he looks like a poor mans Dan Uggla.
Just saw the GS...
Did not look like a homer off the bat, and probably should have been caught. Crazy finish.
My twitter = @neufaustcan
Yea, it probably should have been caught. Conrad looked like he was expecting it to be a flyball out…surprised it was a home run almost.
by robotmadeofnails on May 20, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Why not start Weaver in the 5-hole as he has years of starting experience? Monk can then go long relief if need be. Please end the 2010 Ortiz era!
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:35 PM PDT reply actions
Ortiz has years of starting experience too
by Michael White on May 20, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
But Weav was okay in the role last year
and I’d trust him to give me five more then Ramon. I was willing to give Ramon a chance but ship has to have sailed.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I think this current version of Weaver was put on Earth to get right-handed batters out.
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
They have repeatedly say
they want to use Weaver as middle reliever (and for all I know, that is what Weaver wanted to do too)
Joe has also said repeatedly he would give Martin
more time off.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
When the quality of 5-hole starts is this poor I think he should reconsider where Weaver might be most useful. Though I see your point.
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
He also likes
GA, so clearly the man is insane.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
I am of the opinion t
that almost anyone in that role will be despised at some point of the season. Mainly because he will be a veteran and some believe a young player should be sitting on the bench for 1/2 the game before coming up and failing.
+1
Such is life in the NL. Someone’s gotta have the thankless role of coming off the bench once a day (or less) to face a tough relief pitcher, so it mine as well be an old geezer. Besides, as I’ve been saying since spring training, it’d be one thing if GA were taking up the job of the 4th outfielder, but as long as we have 4 capable guys already, you mine as well give XP as much playing time as possible at whatever level that can happen. Any time one of the four go down, he’s gotten the nod from Ned & Joe, so it’s not like he’s being buried or anything.
Bottom line- most NL teams have a guy whose one and only job is pinch hitter for the pitcher, and you want to spend it on someone whose best days are behind them, not in front of them.
Assuming nobody gets called up to start, the best option for the 3 starts is probably a Monk/Weaver combo for 5-6 innings.
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
As long as no Ortiz is involved.
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
He takes over the Monk (non)role for a few weeks
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Short of a trade I don’y think anybody in minors is ready to come up and start at this point. Weaver?monk is our best option. ( I am completely ignoring the Ely success)
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:48 PM PDT reply actions
Well, Ely stays
because Padilla isn’t ready yet. Ely is the solution for Padilla.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
I am thrilled about Ely and....
would love Padilla in the 5 spot.
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I am fully on board for ElyMania right now, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to be better than Padilla for the rest of this season.
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
You are absolutely right
I am just a lot too swept up in the Ely-train right now.
I, unlike many, was happy when they resigned Padilla.
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Right now there's no real 4 and 5 spots
Ely by all rights and purposes would be a great solution to the #5 conundrum if Padilla was back and healthy. Padilla will be 4 and Ely 5. Until Padilla’s back it’s more a case of who fills that mystery spot. Ely only solved one of the two spots.
If McDonald and Elbert had been pitching decently in AAA they would have been no brainer solution but they’ve kind of been blowing their chance.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Not like I have stats or other types of facts in my corner
But I believe JMac can give you some decent starts.
by Michael White on May 20, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Certainly nothing he has done
in his starts in LA last year or his AAA season this year, would lead you to that conclusion
He’s still got the stuff (at least that’s what I’m counting on.) Even from reading coolguy’s and Phil’s reports, it seems like he’s been a bit unlucky this year, plus some of his stats are dragged down by getting bombed earlier this year when he was already injured.
Even last year, he gave some good efforts in extra innings game(s) after he was converted to a reliever (where he excelled.)
by Michael White on May 20, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought he struggled his last couple outings. Even so, I be happy w/ JMac over ROrt any day.
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd rather watch JMac struggle in Dodger blue than Ortease
by runningwiththedevil on May 20, 2010 1:58 PM PDT reply actions
Where minor leaguers go
to work on things, better to fail there where it doesn’t matter.
Look, not every prospect pans out, the Dodgers have been fortunate to have the players they have, some are going to peak at AA/AAA and never make that jump.
McDonald, Elbert and Lindblom may at best be relievers. That is what their trial by fire in AAA is about, if they don’t improve, they may be labelled as just middle guys.
In a park that may be harder to pitch than in Dodgers stadium.
All I’m saying is that you can’t assume that just because McDonald is struggling in ABQ means he will with the Dodgers.
It can
if the extreme hitting environments affect how pitchers approach batters.
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
BB/PA in Albequerque
James McDonald: 10.6%
John Ely: 10.1%
by Michael White on May 20, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually it does
Park Factors. Not as big of an effect as doubles, triples and HRs in many cases, but it does have an effect. I use to think the same thing, so I won’t come down hard on ye.
Ok I'll trust you guys. You know more than me.
I don’t completely understand that chart, but it looks like, Chase, and Citizens bank had low walk numbers. Or is it the opposite?
But I have seen some terrible starts by him in DR AZ and ABQ since November, and the common theme is that the ball is up. I am not buying into park factors for this particular pitcher this time.
Yeah, that’s fine. I have no idea on the pitchers you guys are talking about. Just chiming in that parks do have an effect on walks.
looking at 09 Petco had the highest walk rate and Citizens Bank had one of the lowest. I get that one season is a small sample but, we are looking at very small samples. I understand the point, that my comment isn’t correct. I don’t think it matters here though.
Aren't those pretty raw stats?
Too raw to make the conclusion that parks affect walks? It’s a simple home vs. road comparison without other effects neutralized. Effects such as Citi Field being Oliver Perez’s home park.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
That’s not how PF work. Oliver walks in home park and Oliver walks in away park(s). Unless I am not understanding your question.
I’m going to trust that you are correct. Because I understand the logic behind it. Even though I don’t really see it in the numbers. But is the PF for walks even remotely significant enough to evaluate a pitcher. Even over a career let alone a single season?
I really don’t know the answer to that. Walks are effected by the park, but not nearly as much as things like doubles, triples and HRs as mentioned earlier. Your best argument is that they don’t matter a whole lot. It is the same thing with strike-outs. Some of the reasons for the effect might be different, but some are the same.
Alright. I think you have peaked my interest though. I’m going to look into PF a little more now. Thanks
Cool
Here is an article from old friend Tom Meagher on the park effects at Dodger Stadium. The study is 5 years old, but it is an interesting read nonetheless and from a former Dodger blogger.
vr, Xei
With ABQ this year
James McDonald: FIP 4.70
John Ely: FIP 4.51
Considering at least 1 start for JMac occured when he was actually hurt, these two pitched about the same this year in ABQ. Maybe, ABQ is just a very difficult place to pitch. Or maybe all of pitching prospects starting sucking all at the same time in AAA.
magill
on fire 5 innigns 3 hits 0 runs 2 BB 6 Ks
35 innings on the season with 46 Ks
webster had a bad outing as he went 3 inings 2 hits 2 runs 4 walks 2 Ks… and his GB to FB ratio is terrifying…
oh ya
and just another day for sands…. 2 for 3 with a homer and a walk..
songco 2 doubles and a triple
Sands and Songco
Underdog’s two favorite position player prospects right now!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Let’s send Sands down to Rookie ball and see him really dominate.
by kinbote on May 20, 2010 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Simi Valley kid representing!! haha
I have very big hopes for him. I’m hoping he will take over from the Weaver brothers as the best Simi Valley MLB player ever :D
Haha
I went to highschool in Simi Valley. It’s all about the Weaver bros.
by Tommy Told Me To Bleed Blue on May 20, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Na
Simi High Pioneer….I graduated in 00. Damn! I feel like an old man.
by Tommy Told Me To Bleed Blue on May 20, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't make me hurt you
;-)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Liked the line about...
pitching at Dodgers Stadium compared to Jacksonville is farther apart than it is on a map.
My twitter = @neufaustcan
No inside info
but I think he will play. I get the feeling he was scratched last night because the incident happened so close to game time. They had to check him out as a precaution, and couldn’t do so without scratching him from the lineup.
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
#6 best organization in baseball having a typical day
Down 3-1 in B9th. Maybe by 6th best organization in baseball, they mean they sell the 6th most cappucinos(sp?) in baseball.
by Xeifrank on May 20, 2010 3:05 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Mariners should win by a fraction of a run! :)
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Griffey with the walk off single. And just two days ago USSM had a huge rant asking that he be released from the team.
So GA will win it for the Dodgers tonight
in similar fashion, to follow suit?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Averaging over that span about
Six innings plus half an out per start. No more can’t get an out in the 7th crap!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Fuck yeah!
Lol, I noticed the same thing with the .2 more than averaging 6 innings a start.
He has looked very good recently, and I really think it will continue. He said that he was trying to get a lot of groundball outs and it just wasn’t working for him, and I’m glad he realized that and is doing what he does best, power pitching! Though it would be nice to see him striking out a few more, though not at the cost of a few more pitches an inning.
While home at lunch I noticed the fantasy guys on MLB Network recommended to not start Billingsley for this weekend as he faces a tougher offense in the Tigers. I held in my rage. :)
by Eric Stephen on May 20, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL
While I don’t doubt the tigers have a pretty good offense, I wouldn’t sit Billingsley against anyone…I just don’t get the LA anti-bias…so saddening.
Did they say "And he'll have Dodger clowns backing him up"?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
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