FanPost

May 22nd, Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Tigers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
DET LAN A.Galarraga vs J.Ely LAN 58.85% 62.78%

Notes: First place feels good. Let's be selfish and not share it with anyone else. Time to put both the Giants and Padres into the rear view mirror. Objects in the baseball rear view mirror look rather large, especially when they play third base for the Giants. Vegas likes the Dodgers chances again on Saturday. The simulator likes them even more. Vegas Over/Under is around 8.1 runs - the under looks good again. Get your game score guesses in. There's still a few chairs left at the kids table.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 51 LAN 7-5 101 LAN 11-0
2 LAN 2-1 52 DET 7-4 102 DET 10-4
3 LAN 4-3 53 DET 7-2 103 DET 10-5
4 LAN 3-1 54 DET 7-5 104 DET 9-7
5 DET 3-2 55 DET 5-0 105 LAN 11-5
6 LAN 4-2 56 LAN 8-4 106 DET 9-8
7 LAN 5-4 57 DET 7-6 107 LAN 12-1
8 DET 2-1 58 LAN 9-2 108 DET 10-1
9 LAN 4-1 59 LAN 8-0 109 LAN 12-3
10 LAN 1-0 60 LAN 9-3 110 LAN 10-6
11 DET 4-3 61 LAN 8-5 111 DET 11-4
12 LAN 5-2 62 DET 7-1 112 DET 9-0
13 LAN 2-0 63 DET 8-2 113 DET 10-6
14 DET 3-1 64 DET 8-4 114 DET 11-3
15 DET 4-2 65 LAN 9-1 115 LAN 13-2
16 LAN 3-0 66 DET 6-0 116 LAN 10-7
17 LAN 5-3 67 LAN 8-7 117 LAN 12-0
18 LAN 5-1 68 DET 8-3 118 DET 10-7
19 DET 5-4 69 LAN 9-0 119 LAN 10-9
20 LAN 6-5 70 DET 8-5 120 LAN 11-6
21 LAN 4-0 71 LAN 9-4 121 LAN 12-4
22 DET 5-3 72 LAN 10-1 122 LAN 13-1
23 LAN 6-2 73 LAN 10-2 123 DET 11-5
24 LAN 6-3 74 DET 8-1 124 DET 11-2
25 DET 4-1 75 LAN 10-3 125 LAN 12-5
26 LAN 6-1 76 LAN 8-6 126 DET 10-0
27 DET 5-2 77 DET 7-0 127 DET 11-6
28 DET 1-0 78 DET 8-6 128 LAN 13-3
29 LAN 5-0 79 LAN 9-5 129 LAN 14-2
30 DET 2-0 80 DET 8-7 130 DET 11-1
31 LAN 6-4 81 LAN 10-4 131 DET 10-8
32 DET 6-4 82 LAN 10-0 132 LAN 13-4
33 DET 6-3 83 DET 9-2 133 LAN 11-8
34 DET 3-0 84 DET 9-4 134 LAN 13-0
35 LAN 7-2 85 LAN 11-2 135 DET 10-9
36 LAN 6-0 86 DET 9-3 136 LAN 10-8
37 DET 5-1 87 DET 8-0 137 LAN 12-6
38 LAN 7-1 88 LAN 9-8 138 DET 12-2
39 DET 6-5 89 LAN 9-6 139 DET 12-4
40 LAN 7-4 90 LAN 11-1 140 DET 12-5
41 LAN 7-3 91 DET 9-5 141 LAN 14-3
42 DET 6-2 92 DET 9-1 142 LAN 13-5
43 LAN 7-6 93 LAN 11-3 143 LAN 11-7
44 DET 4-0 94 DET 9-6 144 DET 11-7
45 LAN 7-0 95 LAN 10-5 145 LAN 14-0
46 DET 6-1 96 LAN 11-4 146 DET 12-1
47 LAN 8-1 97 LAN 9-7 147 DET 12-3
48 LAN 8-2 98 LAN 12-2 148 LAN 14-1
49 DET 7-3 99 DET 10-3 149 DET 11-0
50 LAN 8-3 100 DET 10-2 150 DET 11-9

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.