FanPost

May 23rd, Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Tigers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 9:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
DET LAN R.Porcello vs H.Kuroda LAN 61.54% 60.56%

 

Notes: Another day and another Tigers/Dodgers game with the Dodgers having around a 60% win probability according to both Vegas and the simulator.  Get your game score guesses in as the Dodgers go for the sweep.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 DET 7-2   101 LAN 9-7
2 LAN 2-1   52 DET 7-4   102 DET 9-7
3 LAN 4-3   53 LAN 8-3   103 DET 10-1
4 DET 3-2   54 LAN 7-5   104 DET 10-5
5 LAN 1-0   55 DET 7-1   105 LAN 12-3
6 LAN 3-1   56 DET 6-0   106 LAN 10-6
7 DET 2-1   57 DET 7-5   107 LAN 11-4
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 8-0   108 LAN 12-1
9 LAN 4-1   59 LAN 8-4   109 DET 11-3
10 LAN 5-4   60 LAN 9-1   110 DET 9-8
11 LAN 2-0   61 DET 8-3   111 LAN 12-2
12 DET 4-3   62 DET 8-2   112 DET 10-7
13 DET 3-1   63 DET 7-6   113 DET 10-6
14 LAN 3-0   64 LAN 9-2   114 DET 11-4
15 DET 4-2   65 DET 8-4   115 LAN 11-5
16 LAN 5-2   66 LAN 8-5   116 DET 11-2
17 DET 1-0   67 DET 8-1   117 DET 11-5
18 LAN 4-0   68 LAN 9-3   118 DET 10-0
19 DET 2-0   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 12-4
20 LAN 5-3   70 DET 7-0   120 LAN 12-0
21 DET 4-1   71 LAN 9-0   121 LAN 13-3
22 LAN 5-1   72 DET 8-5   122 LAN 13-2
23 DET 5-3   73 LAN 9-4   123 LAN 13-1
24 DET 5-4   74 LAN 10-1   124 LAN 11-6
25 DET 5-2   75 LAN 8-6   125 DET 11-1
26 DET 3-0   76 LAN 10-2   126 LAN 10-9
27 LAN 6-5   77 DET 9-3   127 DET 11-6
28 LAN 5-0   78 DET 8-6   128 LAN 10-7
29 LAN 6-2   79 LAN 10-3   129 LAN 10-8
30 LAN 6-3   80 DET 9-2   130 DET 12-3
31 LAN 6-1   81 DET 9-4   131 DET 10-8
32 DET 5-1   82 DET 8-0   132 LAN 11-7
33 LAN 6-4   83 DET 9-5   133 DET 12-2
34 LAN 6-0   84 LAN 9-5   134 LAN 14-2
35 DET 4-0   85 LAN 10-0   135 LAN 13-4
36 DET 6-3   86 LAN 11-1   136 LAN 14-1
37 DET 6-4   87 DET 9-1   137 DET 11-7
38 DET 6-2   88 LAN 11-2   138 DET 12-4
39 LAN 7-1   89 DET 8-7   139 LAN 13-0
40 LAN 7-2   90 LAN 10-4   140 DET 11-0
41 DET 6-5   91 LAN 9-6   141 LAN 12-5
42 DET 6-1   92 DET 10-2   142 LAN 13-5
43 LAN 7-3   93 LAN 11-3   143 DET 12-5
44 DET 5-0   94 LAN 9-8   144 LAN 12-6
45 LAN 7-0   95 LAN 11-0   145 DET 12-1
46 LAN 7-6   96 DET 10-3   146 LAN 14-0
47 LAN 7-4   97 DET 9-6   147 LAN 11-10
48 LAN 8-1   98 LAN 10-5   148 DET 10-9
49 DET 7-3   99 DET 9-0   149 DET 13-4
50 LAN 8-2   100 DET 10-4   150 LAN 13-6
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker