## May 25th, Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cubs using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 7:45 AM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN CHN C.Kershaw vs R.Dempster CHN 50.98% 50.98%

Notes:  For the first time this season, the Dodgers vegas odds and simulator odds are in perfect agreement to two decimal places.  Both vegas and the simulator have this game as a toss up.  Does it mean a close game?  Does it mean an extra inning game?  I don't know, but on paper this should be a very close pitching duel - unless of course the wind is blowing out, then all bets are off.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 CHN 3-2 51 LAN 7-5 101 LAN 9-8 2 CHN 2-1 52 CHN 6-0 102 LAN 11-1 3 CHN 4-3 53 LAN 7-6 103 CHN 10-5 4 LAN 3-2 54 LAN 8-1 104 CHN 11-2 5 LAN 2-1 55 CHN 7-5 105 CHN 11-1 6 LAN 3-1 56 LAN 7-0 106 LAN 11-4 7 LAN 4-3 57 LAN 8-2 107 LAN 11-5 8 CHN 5-4 58 CHN 8-2 108 CHN 9-7 9 LAN 4-2 59 CHN 8-3 109 LAN 10-6 10 CHN 4-2 60 LAN 8-3 110 CHN 10-0 11 CHN 3-1 61 LAN 8-4 111 CHN 11-4 12 CHN 1-0 62 CHN 8-4 112 LAN 10-7 13 LAN 4-1 63 CHN 8-1 113 LAN 11-0 14 CHN 4-1 64 LAN 8-5 114 CHN 10-6 15 LAN 1-0 65 CHN 8-5 115 CHN 11-3 16 CHN 5-2 66 CHN 7-0 116 LAN 12-4 17 LAN 2-0 67 CHN 8-7 117 LAN 12-1 18 LAN 5-3 68 LAN 9-2 118 LAN 12-2 19 LAN 5-4 69 LAN 8-0 119 LAN 12-3 20 CHN 5-3 70 LAN 9-3 120 CHN 12-2 21 LAN 5-2 71 LAN 9-1 121 CHN 10-9 22 LAN 3-0 72 CHN 9-3 122 LAN 11-6 23 CHN 6-5 73 CHN 9-2 123 CHN 10-7 24 CHN 2-0 74 LAN 8-6 124 CHN 11-5 25 CHN 3-0 75 CHN 8-6 125 LAN 10-8 26 LAN 5-1 76 LAN 9-4 126 CHN 11-6 27 CHN 5-1 77 CHN 8-0 127 CHN 12-1 28 CHN 6-3 78 CHN 9-4 128 CHN 11-0 29 LAN 4-0 79 LAN 9-0 129 CHN 12-3 30 LAN 6-3 80 LAN 10-2 130 LAN 12-5 31 LAN 6-4 81 LAN 8-7 131 LAN 12-0 32 CHN 6-2 82 LAN 10-3 132 LAN 13-2 33 LAN 6-2 83 CHN 9-1 133 CHN 10-8 34 CHN 6-4 84 LAN 9-5 134 LAN 13-1 35 CHN 4-0 85 LAN 9-6 135 LAN 10-9 36 LAN 6-5 86 LAN 10-1 136 LAN 11-7 37 LAN 6-1 87 CHN 9-5 137 CHN 12-4 38 CHN 6-1 88 CHN 10-3 138 LAN 13-3 39 LAN 5-0 89 CHN 10-2 139 CHN 12-5 40 LAN 7-2 90 CHN 9-6 140 LAN 13-0 41 CHN 7-6 91 LAN 10-0 141 CHN 13-1 42 CHN 7-3 92 CHN 9-0 142 LAN 13-5 43 LAN 7-4 93 CHN 10-4 143 CHN 11-7 44 CHN 5-0 94 CHN 10-1 144 LAN 13-4 45 LAN 7-3 95 LAN 10-4 145 CHN 12-6 46 CHN 7-4 96 LAN 9-7 146 CHN 13-4 47 CHN 7-2 97 LAN 10-5 147 CHN 13-2 48 LAN 7-1 98 LAN 11-3 148 LAN 11-8 49 LAN 6-0 99 CHN 9-8 149 LAN 12-6 50 CHN 7-1 100 LAN 11-2 150 LAN 14-3

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