FanPost

May 27th, Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cubs using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN CHN J.Ely vs T.Lilly CHN 54.55% 49.54%

 

Notes:  John Ely, the owner of an unsustainable FIP of 1.81 takes to the mound for the Dodgers.  Ely's FIP is deflated due to the fact that he has yet to give up a HR and his xFIP checks in at a much more reasonable (but still awesome) 3.24.  Obviously, the betting public does not buy into Ely-Mania yet as they think it is nothing more than a passing fad, something that will be shortly forgotten and lost in the annals of history, much like the shows Dancing With Stars or American Idol.  Tomorrow will our goose lay a golden egg or not?  Get your game score guesses in along with the bonus point question below.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 CHN 3-2   51 LAN 8-2   101 CHN 9-0
2 CHN 4-3   52 CHN 7-1   102 LAN 9-7
3 CHN 2-1   53 LAN 8-3   103 CHN 10-5
4 LAN 3-2   54 CHN 7-5   104 LAN 10-6
5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 8-1   105 CHN 11-3
6 LAN 4-3   56 LAN 7-0   106 CHN 9-7
7 LAN 3-1   57 CHN 6-0   107 CHN 11-2
8 CHN 5-4   58 LAN 7-6   108 LAN 9-8
9 LAN 4-2   59 LAN 8-4   109 CHN 11-4
10 CHN 3-1   60 CHN 8-2   110 LAN 12-2
11 CHN 4-2   61 LAN 9-2   111 LAN 11-0
12 CHN 1-0   62 CHN 8-3   112 CHN 10-6
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 8-5   113 LAN 12-4
14 CHN 4-1   64 CHN 8-4   114 LAN 10-7
15 CHN 5-3   65 LAN 9-3   115 LAN 12-3
16 LAN 5-3   66 LAN 9-1   116 LAN 11-5
17 LAN 5-4   67 CHN 8-1   117 CHN 10-0
18 LAN 5-2   68 CHN 8-5   118 LAN 12-1
19 CHN 5-2   69 CHN 8-7   119 CHN 11-5
20 LAN 2-0   70 LAN 8-0   120 CHN 11-1
21 LAN 1-0   71 CHN 7-0   121 LAN 11-6
22 LAN 3-0   72 CHN 9-3   122 CHN 10-7
23 CHN 2-0   73 LAN 9-4   123 CHN 12-3
24 CHN 6-5   74 LAN 8-6   124 CHN 12-2
25 LAN 5-1   75 CHN 9-2   125 LAN 12-5
26 LAN 6-3   76 CHN 8-6   126 CHN 10-9
27 CHN 3-0   77 LAN 9-5   127 LAN 13-3
28 CHN 6-3   78 LAN 10-2   128 CHN 11-0
29 CHN 5-1   79 CHN 9-4   129 LAN 13-2
30 LAN 6-2   80 LAN 10-3   130 LAN 10-8
31 LAN 6-4   81 LAN 10-1   131 LAN 13-1
32 LAN 4-0   82 LAN 9-0   132 LAN 11-8
33 LAN 6-5   83 LAN 8-7   133 CHN 12-1
34 CHN 6-4   84 LAN 9-6   134 CHN 11-6
35 LAN 6-1   85 CHN 9-1   135 CHN 10-8
36 CHN 6-2   86 LAN 10-4   136 LAN 12-0
37 CHN 4-0   87 CHN 8-0   137 CHN 12-4
38 LAN 5-0   88 CHN 9-5   138 LAN 11-7
39 CHN 6-1   89 LAN 11-2   139 CHN 12-5
40 LAN 7-2   90 LAN 11-3   140 CHN 11-7
41 LAN 7-3   91 CHN 10-2   141 LAN 12-6
42 LAN 7-4   92 CHN 9-6   142 LAN 13-5
43 LAN 7-1   93 CHN 10-3   143 LAN 10-9
44 CHN 7-6   94 CHN 10-4   144 LAN 13-4
45 CHN 7-4   95 LAN 10-5   145 CHN 13-2
46 CHN 7-2   96 CHN 9-8   146 LAN 14-1
47 CHN 7-3   97 LAN 11-1   147 CHN 12-0
48 CHN 5-0   98 CHN 10-1   148 CHN 12-6
49 LAN 6-0   99 LAN 11-4   149 LAN 12-7
50 LAN 7-5   100 LAN 10-0   150 CHN 13-4
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