FanPost

May 27th, Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cubs using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN CHN J.Ely vs T.Lilly CHN 54.55% 49.54%

 

Notes:  John Ely, the owner of an unsustainable FIP of 1.81 takes to the mound for the Dodgers.  Ely's FIP is deflated due to the fact that he has yet to give up a HR and his xFIP checks in at a much more reasonable (but still awesome) 3.24.  Obviously, the betting public does not buy into Ely-Mania yet as they think it is nothing more than a passing fad, something that will be shortly forgotten and lost in the annals of history, much like the shows Dancing With Stars or American Idol.  Tomorrow will our goose lay a golden egg or not?  Get your game score guesses in along with the bonus point question below.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 CHN 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 101 CHN 9-0
2 CHN 4-3 &nbsp 52 CHN 7-1 &nbsp 102 LAN 9-7
3 CHN 2-1 &nbsp 53 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 103 CHN 10-5
4 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 54 CHN 7-5 &nbsp 104 LAN 10-6
5 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 55 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 105 CHN 11-3
6 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 56 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 106 CHN 9-7
7 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 57 CHN 6-0 &nbsp 107 CHN 11-2
8 CHN 5-4 &nbsp 58 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 108 LAN 9-8
9 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 59 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 109 CHN 11-4
10 CHN 3-1 &nbsp 60 CHN 8-2 &nbsp 110 LAN 12-2
11 CHN 4-2 &nbsp 61 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 111 LAN 11-0
12 CHN 1-0 &nbsp 62 CHN 8-3 &nbsp 112 CHN 10-6
13 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 63 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 113 LAN 12-4
14 CHN 4-1 &nbsp 64 CHN 8-4 &nbsp 114 LAN 10-7
15 CHN 5-3 &nbsp 65 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 115 LAN 12-3
16 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 66 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 116 LAN 11-5
17 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 67 CHN 8-1 &nbsp 117 CHN 10-0
18 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 68 CHN 8-5 &nbsp 118 LAN 12-1
19 CHN 5-2 &nbsp 69 CHN 8-7 &nbsp 119 CHN 11-5
20 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 70 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 120 CHN 11-1
21 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 71 CHN 7-0 &nbsp 121 LAN 11-6
22 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 72 CHN 9-3 &nbsp 122 CHN 10-7
23 CHN 2-0 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 123 CHN 12-3
24 CHN 6-5 &nbsp 74 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 124 CHN 12-2
25 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 75 CHN 9-2 &nbsp 125 LAN 12-5
26 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 76 CHN 8-6 &nbsp 126 CHN 10-9
27 CHN 3-0 &nbsp 77 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 127 LAN 13-3
28 CHN 6-3 &nbsp 78 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 128 CHN 11-0
29 CHN 5-1 &nbsp 79 CHN 9-4 &nbsp 129 LAN 13-2
30 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 80 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 130 LAN 10-8
31 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 81 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 131 LAN 13-1
32 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 82 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 132 LAN 11-8
33 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 83 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 133 CHN 12-1
34 CHN 6-4 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 134 CHN 11-6
35 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 85 CHN 9-1 &nbsp 135 CHN 10-8
36 CHN 6-2 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 136 LAN 12-0
37 CHN 4-0 &nbsp 87 CHN 8-0 &nbsp 137 CHN 12-4
38 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 88 CHN 9-5 &nbsp 138 LAN 11-7
39 CHN 6-1 &nbsp 89 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 139 CHN 12-5
40 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 90 LAN 11-3 &nbsp 140 CHN 11-7
41 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 91 CHN 10-2 &nbsp 141 LAN 12-6
42 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 92 CHN 9-6 &nbsp 142 LAN 13-5
43 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 93 CHN 10-3 &nbsp 143 LAN 10-9
44 CHN 7-6 &nbsp 94 CHN 10-4 &nbsp 144 LAN 13-4
45 CHN 7-4 &nbsp 95 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 145 CHN 13-2
46 CHN 7-2 &nbsp 96 CHN 9-8 &nbsp 146 LAN 14-1
47 CHN 7-3 &nbsp 97 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 147 CHN 12-0
48 CHN 5-0 &nbsp 98 CHN 10-1 &nbsp 148 CHN 12-6
49 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 99 LAN 11-4 &nbsp 149 LAN 12-7
50 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 100 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 150 CHN 13-4
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker