May 28th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation
by Xeifrank on May 27, 2010 9:40 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 9:30 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | COL | C.Monasterios vs J.Francis | COL | 59.84% | 59.74% |
Notes: Once again Vegas and the simulator are in near perfect agreement as to the probability of the likely outcome of the first game of the series in Denver. The Rockies will be a firm but not overwhelming favorite. Jeff Francis has pitched well so far this year after coming back from a major injury that sidelined him for the entire 2009 season. Francis' 0.68 ERA is nowhere near sustainable nor is his 2.65 FIP. His early season xFIP checks in at a more reasonable 3.88, but that too will likely regress towards the higher career average of 4.52. Get your game score guesses in.
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 COL 4-3 | 51 COL 9-4 | 101 LAN 6-0 | ||
| 2 COL 5-4 | 52 LAN 8-4 | 102 COL 10-7 | ||
| 3 COL 3-2 | 53 LAN 8-6 | 103 COL 11-1 | ||
| 4 COL 6-5 | 54 LAN 7-2 | 104 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 5 LAN 4-3 | 55 LAN 8-7 | 105 COL 12-4 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 | 56 COL 9-3 | 106 COL 12-2 | ||
| 7 COL 4-2 | 57 COL 8-1 | 107 LAN 10-2 | ||
| 8 COL 5-3 | 58 COL 1-0 | 108 LAN 9-1 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-2 | 59 COL 9-2 | 109 COL 12-3 | ||
| 10 COL 2-1 | 60 LAN 8-3 | 110 LAN 7-0 | ||
| 11 COL 5-2 | 61 COL 6-0 | 111 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 12 LAN 5-3 | 62 COL 9-5 | 112 COL 11-6 | ||
| 13 COL 7-6 | 63 LAN 6-1 | 113 COL 10-0 | ||
| 14 COL 6-4 | 64 LAN 2-0 | 114 COL 10-8 | ||
| 15 LAN 6-5 | 65 COL 9-8 | 115 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 16 COL 6-3 | 66 COL 9-6 | 116 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 17 COL 3-1 | 67 LAN 8-2 | 117 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 18 LAN 4-2 | 68 COL 10-2 | 118 COL 12-5 | ||
| 19 COL 4-1 | 69 COL 10-4 | 119 COL 12-1 | ||
| 20 COL 6-2 | 70 COL 7-0 | 120 COL 11-7 | ||
| 21 LAN 6-4 | 71 LAN 3-0 | 121 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 22 COL 5-1 | 72 COL 9-1 | 122 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 23 LAN 5-2 | 73 COL 10-3 | 123 LAN 8-0 | ||
| 24 LAN 2-1 | 74 LAN 7-1 | 124 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 25 LAN 6-3 | 75 LAN 9-5 | 125 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 26 COL 7-3 | 76 LAN 1-0 | 126 COL 11-0 | ||
| 27 LAN 3-1 | 77 LAN 9-3 | 127 COL 13-3 | ||
| 28 COL 7-5 | 78 LAN 9-6 | 128 COL 12-6 | ||
| 29 COL 7-4 | 79 LAN 9-4 | 129 COL 13-2 | ||
| 30 COL 6-1 | 80 COL 9-7 | 130 LAN 10-1 | ||
| 31 COL 7-2 | 81 LAN 4-0 | 131 COL 11-10 | ||
| 32 LAN 7-6 | 82 LAN 9-7 | 132 COL 13-4 | ||
| 33 LAN 7-5 | 83 COL 8-0 | 133 COL 11-8 | ||
| 34 LAN 7-4 | 84 LAN 9-8 | 134 COL 13-5 | ||
| 35 COL 8-7 | 85 COL 10-5 | 135 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 36 LAN 4-1 | 86 LAN 5-0 | 136 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-2 | 87 LAN 9-2 | 137 COL 11-9 | ||
| 38 COL 7-1 | 88 COL 11-3 | 138 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 39 COL 8-2 | 89 COL 10-1 | 139 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-3 | 90 LAN 8-1 | 140 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 41 COL 8-3 | 91 COL 9-0 | 141 COL 14-2 | ||
| 42 COL 8-5 | 92 COL 11-2 | 142 COL 12-7 | ||
| 43 COL 8-4 | 93 COL 10-6 | 143 LAN 11-9 | ||
| 44 COL 3-0 | 94 COL 11-4 | 144 COL 13-1 | ||
| 45 COL 4-0 | 95 COL 10-9 | 145 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 46 COL 5-0 | 96 LAN 10-5 | 146 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 47 LAN 5-1 | 97 COL 11-5 | 147 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 48 COL 8-6 | 98 LAN 10-4 | 148 COL 14-3 | ||
| 49 LAN 8-5 | 99 LAN 10-3 | 149 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 50 COL 2-0 | 100 LAN 10-6 | 150 COL 14-4 |
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