Dodgers Rotation Coming Up One Short
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:00 PM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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PrintThe Dodgers have the best record in baseball in May, at 17-7, and a big reason why has been their pitching. John Ely has come out of nowhere to stabilize the starting rotation, a much needed boost with Vicente Padilla missing more than a month. The top four of Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and John Ely have combined for 20 starts in May with a 2.78 ERA, and the club has won 15 of the 20 games. Those four have pitched a total of 16 quality starts this month.
However, the fifth starter spot has been a problem. In four starts, Carlos Monasterios, Charlie Haeger, and Ramon Ortiz have combined to pitch just 11 1/3 innings with an 11.12 ERA. I removed the top four starters for each National League team in May (defined as the four pitchers with the most starts on the team), and the Dodgers have had the worst performance out of the back end of their rotation:
| NL "5th Starters" in May | |||
| Team | Starts | IP/GS | ERA |
| Atl | 3 | 5.44 | 2.76 |
| NY | 7 | 5.19 | 3.47 |
| SD | 5 | 5.67 | 3.49 |
| ChC | 5 | 6.40 | 3.66 |
| Phi | 4 | 6.42 | 3.86 |
| Col | 7 | 5.86 | 4.17 |
| Mil | 4 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| StL | 5 | 5.20 | 4.85 |
| Cin | 5 | 6.20 | 4.94 |
| SF | 4 | 5.67 | 5.16 |
| Fla | 5 | 5.67 | 5.40 |
| Pit | 6 | 4.94 | 5.46 |
| Was | 5 | 5.20 | 6.23 |
| Ari | 4 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Hou | 5 | 5.20 | 7.62 |
| LA | 4 | 2.83 | 11.12 |
| NL Totals | 78 | 5.34 | 4.97 |
Even without Haeger's forgettable five-run, no-out start, the Dodger fifth starters are at or near the bottom of the league in ERA (7.15) and innings per start (3.78). The Dodgers have managed to win two of the four games started by the "fifth starter" spot, so all is not lost. However, it's hard to imagine winning half of your games with such dismal performances out of the final spot in the rotation.
Carlos Monasterios starts tonight, and in the midst of 16 games in 16 days the fifth spot will come up at least two more times before Padilla is ready to return. Haeger might be ready to return next week; perhaps he can regain his form from the first week of the season. Per today's Albuquerque Isotopes game notes, Scott Elbert was scratched from tonight's scheduled start, so perhaps he might take the fifth starter reins and run with them. Whomever takes the ball, it would be nice to have performances that resemble a real major league starter out of that fifth spot.
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- Elbert and McDonald not delivering the goods in AAA
- McCourt’s lack of funds meaning we didn’t pick up another arm in free agency such as Garland, Washburn, etc. who may have sucked but surely not been as sucky
McDonald has pitched better in ABQ this year than Ely did
If anything, the only reason he’s not getting called up now is the hamstring issue.
by Michael White on May 28, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
In fairness, Ely found his groove right before he got promoted. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have been outstanding if he remained there.
by silverwidow on May 28, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Most, myself included, would have been rightfully pissed if the Dodgers had paid for yet another starter, whether it be Garland, Washburn, or whomever. I had no problem heading into the spring with McDonald, Elbert, Haeger, and the NRIs fighting it out for the number five spot.
Now, if you want to mention the bizarre need to rid themselves of Eric Stults, I’m willing to listen :)
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
With our history of using 6,7,8 different SPs, how can you count of those four and a scrum for the 5th spot?
Kershaw is 22, Billz was ignored in Sept-October, Kuroda is a 35 year old who took one off the noggin and Padilla is a 2009 DFA who was shot in the leg.
The lineup and the pen were super coming into the year. We coulda added a fifth guy like a Garland($5.3mil), Washburn(unemployed), Millwood (basically $9mil/1yr),Wolf (arb$10mil?) and then let McDonald, Elbert, etc come up when someone inevitably went down…pretty much what happened.
I would argue Kuroda, Billz, Kershaw have been best case scenario so far. One more SP injury and this very good 2010 team (beyond SPs) finds its last season with Manny and all the seasoned pieces in jeopardy.
What’s the fear? That we have a $94-97mil payroll this year?
“Rightfully pissed”? Only if you can could count on a full season from those four and you can’t.
Payroll constraints were behind this not logic IMO.
PS, I love your work here Eric.
I wouldn’t have minded another starter, if there was one to be had, like a top of the rotation guy. And I was on the record preferring Garland to Padilla because of his consistency. But I don’t see much of a difference between Washburn and the rest and what we already have/had.
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You realize Jarrod Washburn sucks right?
by Michael White on May 28, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Why doesn't McCourt get credit for Ely?
Isn’t it possible that Chicago would have given LAD lesser prospects if they agreed to take on more of Pierre’s salary? McCourt was willing to dish out $40MM to rid the team of JP, and it returned one of the 4 pitchers in the artcile above.
Obvious answer is that McCourt gets credit for nothing and blame for everything. That would make some sense if the team he owns is perenially in the basement in the standings (like the Raiders or Clippers) but that’s not the case.
by Michael White on May 28, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought McCourt only dished out 10.5 million to get rid of him.
by silverwidow on May 28, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I think I've seen lots of credit given to Colletti,
which is indirectly to McCourt as well, for being able to get the Chisox to take on $8M of Pierre’s contract AND get a couple of pitchers who might be of value, Ely and Link.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I give McCourt credit for a lot
Or McCourt/Colletti, because I’m not always sure where the credit goes. The team has gotten to the playoffs recently, which is a big step up.
The “Blame McCourt” calls come from other kinds of deals, where he sells young talent off cheap because he needs to fund his lifestyle. Or, where they don’t offer arbitration to guys who clearly won’t accept, because they don’t want to pay for additional draft choices (who would be great trade bait now, if, for instance, they wanted to put together a package for Roy Oswalt.)
by MartinGreen on May 28, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
You can't draft picks
Also, most teams do not want very young talent, they are looking for at least AA/AAA guys that can play now or maybe in a year or too.
And there again is no guarantee that Hudson would not have accepted arbitration and maybe force the Dodgers to trade him. Wolf’s case is different but in any case, even if he signs with Milwaukee, we are talking a supplemental and a 2nd Round pick that would not be trade bait until maybe 2012, if ever.
The scenarios that you present are very easy to believe but in reality, they is a lot more behind what happens.
Road Standing Ovation?
I didn’t notice this in the highlights, but it sounds like Ely got a nice ovation when he came out of yesterday’s game. That’s cool. Here’s a shot from the Dodgers:
Also in that link, Broxton’s bobblehead.
On the telecast
which I saw a bit of later last night, you can see a few fans behind the Dodger dugout tip their Cubs caps to Ely, right around this moment. It was a nice acknowledgment he got from the Wrigley crowd – good for them.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
too bad they didn't have the highlights
nice that he acknowledged the road crowd, unlike some pitching phenoms. cough cough Strasburg cough
Too bad they didn’t have a highlight of this. I would also like to see the highlight of Casey Blake getting fired up at the ump.
you're welcome
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
I think it's interesting they gave him the standing O
and that he acknowledge it, considering he’s a super die-hard Sox fan.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
I’m not looking forward to Elbert coming up. There’s no way he gets a start, he’ll be used as a LOOGY at best, and is probably gone for Haeger next week. It’s like whatever, you know.
could be
or your boy Troncoso could end up on the DL to create slack for Slacks.
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
My “boy” pitches June 8th. I’ll be watching. Don’t know about you. :)
by silverwidow on May 28, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Elbert seems like a bad choice for a LOOGY
Too much of a W.A.L. That’ll play more as a starter. For a guy who struggles with walking batters, how can you bring him in to face only 1 guy?
by Michael White on May 28, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder
after the Fontenot “triple”, if John Ely would have been able to look up into the stands and see his wheel-chair bound father sitting in the stands cheering him on, maybe he would have found a little something extra drawn from that inspiration, and Tyler Colvin’s bounder is right to James Loney instead of between the 1B and the line.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
it certainly would have been the subject of a future “This is Beyond Baseball” commercial on MLB Network and ESPN :)
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Harold Perrineau, who shot Ana Lucia & Libby, will sing national anthem and God Bless America next Thursday at Dodger Stadium
In that same game
E! News correspondents Guiliana Rancic, Ashlan Gorse, Jason Kennedy and Sal Masekela will throw out a ceremonial first pitch
I have heard of Sal because of the X Games, but have no idea who the other people are.
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I've heard of none of them
but I have heard of Sal’s father.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I know who she is now…I have seen her, and I do hate her, FWIW
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
and Barry Williams (Greg Brady) will do the deed on 70s Night next Friday.
Awesome.
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
My Town - Growing up Brady on Friday?
I would like to judge a Marcia Brady (last season, not early on – I’m not that creepy) lookalike contest.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Alex Gordon now playing LF and mashing in AAA
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/prospect-watch-alex-gordon/
.377/.518/.688 in around 100 ABs in AAA as a LF this year. After Manny’s gone I would love to take a chance on him, especially if he can play LF well enough (it’s not rocket science, he can). If we didn’t have Blake I would have wanted him for 3B as well.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
They sent him to the minors in his 4th season in the majors…doesn’t exactly show a lot of confidence in the guy. I’m not saying it would take nothing to get him, but he’s not the top prospect he once was, and Dayton Moore is an idiot, so I could see a swap of Elbert for Gordon or something along those lines.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
He has a source. (See the rec'd FanPosts.)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
No, Elbert!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder who has the
mystery injury du jour.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 28, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
But they don’t need Green. He doesn’t even play.
by Michael White on May 28, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
If they liked him so much
Why doesn’t he play more?
Maybe Colleti likes him and Torre doesn’t, but I don’t know why you guys are so certain that he is beloved. Wouldn’t the proof be in the PT.
by Michael White on May 28, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes! Very nice. Is he going to start?
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
I can’t recall from the other thread, are you actually friends with him?
Either way, I’ve liked Elbert for a long time, and I’m really hoping he succeeds and eventually becomes a starter with the team, though I fear he has no future here with Torre and Colletti here.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
I think the fear might be more tied to his performance then to Ned and Joe
If he performs he’ll have a job, if he sucks he won’t. Unless you think Joe will simply not use him even though he’s on the roster. If that happens then I’ll concede your point.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Kind of makes you a little sick to your stomach to see the Cardinals rip off five first inning runs at Wrigley Field against one of the Cubs better pitchers. Esp after what happened yesterday there.
vr, Xei
They got rolled by the Padres, though.
Gotta love baseball.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
As sick as Phillies fans watching their team lay goose eggs all week vs the Mets?
as Maddz says, that’s baseball for you. Cards were also beaten up by the lowly Astros.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Maybe we could trade them back Hoffman
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
This is kind of interesting
From Carson Cistulli at Fangraphs:
Matthew Carruth does these cool things for Lookout Landing where he looks at each pitcher’s basic repertoire and then grades it on the 20-80 scouting scale. The grades are determined by league percentiles in swinging strikes (K), strike rate (BB) and ground balls (GB) for each pitch. [I assume SP is speed in mph.]:Looks like the strike rate isn’t all that good on Kershaw’s breaking stuff. He also had this bullet point in his article:
Here’s what Kershaw’s looks like:Pitch % Sp K BB GB
FB 71% 94 80 60 60
CB 18% 73 45 20 60
SL 6% 82 65 35 20
Overall — — 75 35 50
Of starters with more than 20 IP, Kershaw is fourth — behind Tim Lincecum (13.5%), Brandon Morrow (13.0%), and Dan Haren (12.8%) — in swinging strike percentage (11.9%). His fastball, a pitch that league-wide gets swing-and-misses only about 7 percent of the time, is getting whiffs 11.8 percent of the time.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
There’s no way Kershaw only throws his slider 6% these days. It’s his #2 pitch according to data from brooksbaseball.net
I don't know where the data comes from
but the percentages on sliders and curves do seem flip-flopped.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Apparently former Trojans should not look to Pete Carroll as soft touch
Seahawks released LenDale White today.
wtf??
didn’t they just get him this offseason?
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
It's just a surprising move to me that they would get him then dump him
Isn’t he still a pretty good running option?
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
I guess he started drinking tequila again
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
Failed a drug test apparently
and will be suspended for games. Disappointing for one of my favorite Trojans.
ELBERT
Interesting, probably just for a cup of coffee.
Randy Winn would certainly make a better option then Garrett Anderson.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Maybe but
the Yankee outfield situation is pretty bad, so you have to wonder how bad he has been playing. And regardless, pinch-hitting is a pretty thankless role so whoever fills it, is going to look bad a lot of the time.
Don't really care about the pinch hitting
I simply hate having a guy on the bench who can only pinch hit. Winn can still run, and play some decent defense.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Alex Gordon
would be a good get, but several teams have inquired on him and have been told he’s not being traded.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I’m not sure if you read what I said earlier about that or you’re just bringing it up because you were thinking about it, but I think he would be a very nice replacement for Manny in LF next year, as he’s learning to play there now. He’s absolutely mashing in AAA, and I think he could still be an .800 OPS MLB player. It all depends on if the Royals are willing to trade him, which I guess they are not.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
Tulo
Tulo is seeing the ball incredibly well right now. To put it in perspective, his batting line since May 20 is .423/.500/1.077, which works out to a 1.577 OPS.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That makes me feel so much better about this series.
I’ll be in the corner, shaking.
Funny story — a guy at work was saying that “Tulo was on fire” while there were some wildfires going on in Southern California. It took me a full 15 minutes to realize he meant Tulowitzki and not some random place in CA called Tulo.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
Dempster defers $3m in this year’s salary to help give cubs flexibility to make moves: http://bit.ly/dvLzsB
Dylan Hernandez and Ken Gurnick both reporting this now
Elbert called-up, just arrived in Colorado
by RxApple on May 28, 2010 12:52 PM PDT reply actions
Dylan tweeted.
On Gurnick’s blog:
Left-handed pitcher Scott Elbert was in the Dodgers clubhouse at Coors Field Friday and will be activated, but the club has not confirmed the move or announced a corresponding roster move.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Dodgers lineup - RHB heavy
Furcal SS
Martin C
Ramirez LF
Kemp CF
Blake 3B
Belliard 1B
Johnson RF
Carroll 2B
Monasterios P
Revised Oswalt deal
DODGERS GET:
Roy Oswalt
ASTROS GET:
Rafael Furcal
Kyle Russell
Ethan Martin (this one hurts)
PTNBL (Garrett Gould)
Trade would go through most likely.
Girl Name would play SS in that scenerio
Unless Nick Green suddenly becomes an average hitter.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
oh- heh heh
Didn’t see Silverwidow’s post that you were responding to. Beat me to the punchline. nicely done!
LOL
Why would they want Furcal when they are rebuilding (sorry, thinking like a real GM would, not Wade), and that’s a hell of a lot to give up for just Oswalt. Gould is too valuable to give up with as a side dish to Martin.
While I agree the Astros would likely accept this, it wouldn’t make a shred of sense to the Dodgers.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
He is not someone they are looking to trade
by Eric Stephen on May 28, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I see where you are coming from, but it still doesn’t make any sense. There is no real salary the Dodgers can dump except for Sherrill, Padilla, or possibly Manny (and I guess to the same extent Furcal, but Manny isnt going anywhere and neither is Furcal), and both Sherrill and Padilla aren’t worth anything in a trade.
I’d rather keep Furcal and those 3 great (yes, I think all 3 are great prospects) prospects than have Oswalt. It creates a hole that can’t be easily filled for the season and hurts the farm pretty badly.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
I refuse to call Russell a great anything until he shows up in AA. It’s quite possible that he’s a .240 hitter there.
So fuck all of his stats because he hasn’t done anything at AA yet?
At this point I don’t care what his age is or what level he’s playing at, he’s dominated the last two years. I’m not putting him at Heyward status, I’m saying he proven to me he can do everything in terms of hitting, fielding, and base running. He deserves a shot to show what he can do at AA, and I think when he does he will still be able to hit for a high slugging percentage and still maintain a good OBP while keeping up his above average defense.
Russell deserves nothing but support right now.
Also, I don’t care if he hits .240 in AA if he has a .900 OPS and is an above average fielder.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
Disclaimer
Russell is one of my favorite prospects.
"You're the only woman to ever love me." "I never loved you." "I meant physically!"
Problem is
If he hits .240 in AA, odds are he’d hit all of .200 in the majors.
I think most of us are looking at Russell with some excitement, but the problem is the jump to AA has made meat of lots of guys who looked amazing before that. Simply a grain of salt issue.
Does anyone know of a bar in NYC
that always shows the Dodgers games? Not looking for ESPNZONE or a massive sportsbar, but actually a Dodger/LA bar.
Yeah
My local bar here always plays Dodger games for me and my wife. Not a Dodger bar unless you count the few of us that go, but it’s always on. It’s in Murray Hill.
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