FanPost

May 29th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN COL H.Kuroda vs A.Cook COL 54.13% 51.76%

 

Notes:  Vegas has the Rockies as ever so slight favorites on Saturday.  The simulator agrees with Vegas but bumps the Rockies chances of winning down a few percent.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 COL 3-2   51 LAN 7-1   101 LAN 11-3
2 COL 4-3   52 LAN 8-3   102 LAN 11-2
3 COL 2-1   53 LAN 5-0   103 COL 10-6
4 COL 5-4   54 LAN 8-2   104 COL 11-3
5 LAN 3-2   55 COL 8-2   105 COL 11-4
6 LAN 4-3   56 COL 8-7   106 COL 11-1
7 COL 4-2   57 LAN 6-0   107 COL 11-2
8 LAN 2-1   58 COL 6-0   108 LAN 11-1
9 LAN 4-2   59 LAN 8-4   109 LAN 11-5
10 COL 3-1   60 LAN 8-5   110 LAN 10-6
11 LAN 5-4   61 COL 8-3   111 LAN 11-4
12 LAN 3-1   62 LAN 8-6   112 LAN 10-7
13 LAN 5-3   63 COL 8-4   113 LAN 11-6
14 COL 6-5   64 LAN 8-1   114 COL 10-0
15 COL 5-3   65 LAN 9-3   115 LAN 10-0
16 LAN 5-2   66 COL 8-5   116 COL 10-9
17 COL 5-2   67 LAN 8-7   117 COL 11-5
18 COL 4-1   68 LAN 9-2   118 COL 12-2
19 LAN 4-1   69 COL 8-1   119 COL 12-3
20 LAN 6-3   70 COL 8-6   120 LAN 12-4
21 COL 1-0   71 COL 9-3   121 COL 10-7
22 LAN 6-4   72 LAN 9-4   122 COL 11-6
23 LAN 6-5   73 LAN 7-0   123 COL 10-8
24 COL 5-1   74 COL 9-2   124 LAN 12-3
25 COL 6-3   75 COL 7-0   125 COL 12-4
26 LAN 5-1   76 LAN 9-5   126 LAN 10-8
27 COL 6-4   77 LAN 9-1   127 LAN 12-2
28 COL 2-0   78 COL 9-5   128 LAN 11-0
29 LAN 6-2   79 COL 9-4   129 LAN 12-1
30 COL 6-2   80 LAN 10-3   130 COL 11-7
31 LAN 2-0   81 LAN 10-2   131 LAN 10-9
32 COL 3-0   82 LAN 8-0   132 LAN 12-5
33 COL 7-6   83 COL 9-1   133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 1-0   84 LAN 9-6   134 COL 11-0
35 LAN 6-1   85 COL 9-8   135 COL 12-5
36 LAN 7-4   86 COL 10-3   136 LAN 12-6
37 LAN 3-0   87 COL 10-2   137 COL 12-1
38 LAN 7-3   88 COL 8-0   138 COL 13-3
39 COL 6-1   89 COL 9-6   139 COL 13-4
40 COL 4-0   90 LAN 9-7   140 LAN 13-2
41 LAN 7-2   91 LAN 10-4   141 LAN 13-1
42 COL 7-3   92 COL 10-1   142 COL 11-8
43 LAN 7-5   93 COL 9-7   143 COL 13-5
44 LAN 7-6   94 COL 10-4   144 LAN 13-3
45 LAN 4-0   95 LAN 10-1   145 LAN 11-8
46 COL 7-4   96 COL 10-5   146 COL 14-3
47 COL 7-5   97 LAN 9-0   147 COL 12-6
48 COL 7-2   98 LAN 9-8   148 COL 13-2
49 COL 5-0   99 COL 9-0   149 LAN 12-0
50 COL 7-1   100 LAN 10-5   150 COL 13-1
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