FanPost

May 29th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN COL H.Kuroda vs A.Cook COL 54.13% 51.76%

 

Notes:  Vegas has the Rockies as ever so slight favorites on Saturday.  The simulator agrees with Vegas but bumps the Rockies chances of winning down a few percent.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 COL 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 101 LAN 11-3
2 COL 4-3 &nbsp 52 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 102 LAN 11-2
3 COL 2-1 &nbsp 53 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 103 COL 10-6
4 COL 5-4 &nbsp 54 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 104 COL 11-3
5 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 55 COL 8-2 &nbsp 105 COL 11-4
6 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 56 COL 8-7 &nbsp 106 COL 11-1
7 COL 4-2 &nbsp 57 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 107 COL 11-2
8 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 58 COL 6-0 &nbsp 108 LAN 11-1
9 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 59 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 109 LAN 11-5
10 COL 3-1 &nbsp 60 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 110 LAN 10-6
11 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 61 COL 8-3 &nbsp 111 LAN 11-4
12 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 112 LAN 10-7
13 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 63 COL 8-4 &nbsp 113 LAN 11-6
14 COL 6-5 &nbsp 64 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 114 COL 10-0
15 COL 5-3 &nbsp 65 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 115 LAN 10-0
16 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 66 COL 8-5 &nbsp 116 COL 10-9
17 COL 5-2 &nbsp 67 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 117 COL 11-5
18 COL 4-1 &nbsp 68 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 118 COL 12-2
19 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 69 COL 8-1 &nbsp 119 COL 12-3
20 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 70 COL 8-6 &nbsp 120 LAN 12-4
21 COL 1-0 &nbsp 71 COL 9-3 &nbsp 121 COL 10-7
22 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 72 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 122 COL 11-6
23 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 73 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 123 COL 10-8
24 COL 5-1 &nbsp 74 COL 9-2 &nbsp 124 LAN 12-3
25 COL 6-3 &nbsp 75 COL 7-0 &nbsp 125 COL 12-4
26 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 76 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 126 LAN 10-8
27 COL 6-4 &nbsp 77 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 127 LAN 12-2
28 COL 2-0 &nbsp 78 COL 9-5 &nbsp 128 LAN 11-0
29 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 79 COL 9-4 &nbsp 129 LAN 12-1
30 COL 6-2 &nbsp 80 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 130 COL 11-7
31 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 81 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 131 LAN 10-9
32 COL 3-0 &nbsp 82 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 132 LAN 12-5
33 COL 7-6 &nbsp 83 COL 9-1 &nbsp 133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 134 COL 11-0
35 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 85 COL 9-8 &nbsp 135 COL 12-5
36 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 86 COL 10-3 &nbsp 136 LAN 12-6
37 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 87 COL 10-2 &nbsp 137 COL 12-1
38 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 88 COL 8-0 &nbsp 138 COL 13-3
39 COL 6-1 &nbsp 89 COL 9-6 &nbsp 139 COL 13-4
40 COL 4-0 &nbsp 90 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 140 LAN 13-2
41 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 91 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 141 LAN 13-1
42 COL 7-3 &nbsp 92 COL 10-1 &nbsp 142 COL 11-8
43 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 93 COL 9-7 &nbsp 143 COL 13-5
44 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 94 COL 10-4 &nbsp 144 LAN 13-3
45 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 95 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 145 LAN 11-8
46 COL 7-4 &nbsp 96 COL 10-5 &nbsp 146 COL 14-3
47 COL 7-5 &nbsp 97 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 147 COL 12-6
48 COL 7-2 &nbsp 98 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 148 COL 13-2
49 COL 5-0 &nbsp 99 COL 9-0 &nbsp 149 LAN 12-0
50 COL 7-1 &nbsp 100 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 150 COL 13-1
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