FanPost

May 30th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN COL C.Kershaw vs J.Chacin COL 51.69% 49.76%

 

Notes:  Vegas and the simulator are in pretty good agreement that Sunday's game is a toss up for the most part.  Hopefully, the Dodgers win the coin toss and gain some ground on the Padres.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 COL 3-2   51 LAN 7-0   101 LAN 10-5
2 COL 2-1   52 COL 7-1   102 LAN 11-1
3 LAN 3-2   53 LAN 8-2   103 COL 9-7
4 COL 4-3   54 COL 7-5   104 LAN 9-7
5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 7-6   105 COL 11-1
6 LAN 3-1   56 LAN 8-1   106 COL 10-5
7 LAN 4-3   57 COL 6-0   107 COL 10-0
8 COL 5-4   58 LAN 8-3   108 LAN 11-3
9 LAN 4-2   59 COL 8-2   109 LAN 11-4
10 COL 1-0   60 COL 8-1   110 LAN 10-6
11 COL 3-1   61 COL 8-3   111 COL 11-4
12 COL 4-2   62 LAN 8-4   112 COL 11-5
13 LAN 4-1   63 COL 8-4   113 LAN 11-5
14 LAN 1-0   64 LAN 8-0   114 COL 12-2
15 LAN 2-0   65 COL 8-7   115 LAN 10-7
16 LAN 5-2   66 LAN 8-5   116 COL 10-6
17 LAN 5-3   67 LAN 9-2   117 COL 12-1
18 COL 4-1   68 COL 8-5   118 LAN 11-0
19 LAN 5-4   69 COL 7-0   119 LAN 12-2
20 LAN 3-0   70 LAN 9-1   120 COL 12-3
21 COL 2-0   71 LAN 8-6   121 COL 11-0
22 COL 5-3   72 COL 9-2   122 LAN 12-1
23 COL 5-2   73 LAN 9-3   123 COL 10-8
24 COL 6-5   74 COL 9-3   124 COL 10-7
25 LAN 5-1   75 COL 9-1   125 COL 12-4
26 COL 3-0   76 LAN 9-4   126 COL 12-5
27 LAN 4-0   77 COL 8-6   127 COL 11-6
28 LAN 6-3   78 COL 9-4   128 LAN 11-6
29 COL 5-1   79 COL 8-0   129 LAN 12-3
30 LAN 6-2   80 LAN 8-7   130 COL 10-9
31 LAN 6-4   81 LAN 9-0   131 LAN 12-0
32 LAN 6-1   82 LAN 10-2   132 LAN 12-4
33 LAN 5-0   83 COL 10-2   133 LAN 11-7
34 COL 6-3   84 COL 10-3   134 COL 12-0
35 COL 6-2   85 COL 9-5   135 COL 13-3
36 LAN 6-5   86 LAN 9-5   136 LAN 12-5
37 COL 4-0   87 LAN 10-3   137 COL 13-2
38 COL 6-4   88 COL 10-1   138 LAN 10-8
39 COL 6-1   89 LAN 9-6   139 LAN 13-1
40 LAN 7-2   90 LAN 10-1   140 LAN 13-2
41 LAN 6-0   91 COL 9-0   141 LAN 11-8
42 LAN 7-3   92 LAN 10-4   142 COL 14-3
43 COL 5-0   93 COL 9-6   143 LAN 13-3
44 COL 7-6   94 COL 9-8   144 COL 13-4
45 LAN 7-4   95 LAN 11-2   145 LAN 10-9
46 LAN 7-1   96 COL 11-2   146 COL 11-7
47 COL 7-2   97 COL 10-4   147 COL 13-1
48 COL 7-3   98 LAN 10-0   148 LAN 13-4
49 COL 7-4   99 LAN 9-8   149 COL 14-4
50 LAN 7-5   100 COL 11-3   150 COL 12-6
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