FanPost

May 31st, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ARI LAN R.Lopez vs C.Billingsley LAN 63.50% 69.24%

 

Notes:  Vegas has the Dodgers as solid favorite, while the simulator tacks on another 6% to the Dodgers win probability.  Vegas has the over/under at around 8.3 runs.  Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 8-4   101 ARI 9-1
2 LAN 4-3   52 LAN 8-0   102 LAN 11-5
3 LAN 2-1   53 ARI 7-4   103 LAN 12-4
4 LAN 3-1   54 LAN 9-3   104 ARI 9-7
5 LAN 4-2   55 ARI 7-3   105 ARI 8-0
6 LAN 5-4   56 LAN 8-5   106 LAN 13-2
7 LAN 4-1   57 ARI 6-1   107 LAN 10-7
8 LAN 5-2   58 ARI 4-0   108 ARI 7-0
9 ARI 3-2   59 ARI 7-5   109 ARI 10-4
10 LAN 5-3   60 LAN 10-2   110 ARI 10-3
11 LAN 3-0   61 ARI 7-6   111 LAN 11-6
12 ARI 4-3   62 LAN 8-7   112 LAN 13-1
13 LAN 2-0   63 ARI 7-2   113 LAN 13-3
14 LAN 1-0   64 LAN 9-4   114 LAN 12-5
15 ARI 2-1   65 LAN 9-0   115 ARI 10-2
16 LAN 5-1   66 LAN 10-1   116 ARI 10-5
17 LAN 6-5   67 LAN 10-3   117 ARI 9-8
18 LAN 6-3   68 LAN 8-6   118 LAN 10-9
19 LAN 4-0   69 LAN 10-4   119 ARI 10-1
20 LAN 6-2   70 LAN 10-0   120 ARI 10-6
21 LAN 6-1   71 ARI 7-1   121 LAN 13-0
22 ARI 4-2   72 ARI 8-4   122 ARI 11-4
23 ARI 5-4   73 ARI 8-3   123 LAN 10-8
24 LAN 5-0   74 ARI 5-0   124 ARI 11-3
25 ARI 3-1   75 ARI 8-5   125 LAN 12-6
26 LAN 6-4   76 LAN 9-5   126 LAN 13-4
27 ARI 5-3   77 ARI 8-2   127 LAN 14-2
28 LAN 7-1   78 ARI 8-6   128 ARI 10-7
29 LAN 7-2   79 LAN 11-1   129 LAN 14-1
30 LAN 6-0   80 LAN 11-3   130 LAN 13-5
31 ARI 5-2   81 ARI 8-7   131 LAN 11-7
32 LAN 7-3   82 LAN 11-2   132 LAN 14-3
33 LAN 7-4   83 ARI 6-0   133 ARI 9-0
34 ARI 4-1   84 LAN 9-6   134 ARI 11-2
35 LAN 7-6   85 LAN 10-5   135 ARI 11-5
36 ARI 1-0   86 ARI 9-3   136 ARI 10-8
37 ARI 6-4   87 ARI 9-5   137 LAN 14-4
38 ARI 6-5   88 LAN 12-1   138 ARI 10-9
39 ARI 6-3   89 LAN 9-8   139 LAN 14-5
40 LAN 8-2   90 ARI 9-2   140 ARI 11-1
41 ARI 2-0   91 LAN 11-4   141 LAN 14-0
42 LAN 7-0   92 ARI 8-1   142 ARI 10-0
43 LAN 8-1   93 ARI 9-4   143 ARI 11-6
44 LAN 8-3   94 LAN 12-2   144 LAN 15-1
45 LAN 7-5   95 LAN 11-0   145 LAN 11-9
46 ARI 6-2   96 LAN 12-3   146 LAN 12-7
47 ARI 5-1   97 LAN 9-7   147 ARI 11-7
48 ARI 3-0   98 ARI 9-6   148 LAN 13-6
49 LAN 9-2   99 LAN 12-0   149 LAN 11-8
50 LAN 9-1   100 LAN 10-6   150 LAN 15-0
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