Is Kershaw already declining?
by Phil Gurnee on May 4, 2010 10:10 PM PDT
in Dodgers Game Recaps
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Wonderkid Clayton Kershaw was klobbered tonight under an assault of walks, HBP, fly ball doubles, and one massive home run by Prince. He ended up giving up seven earned runs in the second inning and had to rely on Ramon Ortiz to finish the 2nd inning. His inning went like this:
- C. Hart walked
- G. Zaun hit by pitch, C. Hart to second
- A. Escobar singled to shallow left, C. Hart scored, G. Zaun to second
- C. Narveson struck out looking
- R. Weeks singled to shallow left, G. Zaun to third, A. Escobar to second
- C. Gomez hit by pitch, G. Zaun scored, A. Escobar to third, R. Weeks to second
- R. Braun doubled to left, A. Escobar, R. Weeks and C. Gomez scored
- P. Fielder homered to deep right center, R. Braun scored
In his brief history he had never given up more then five runs in an inning. In his brief history he had never given up more then four runs in a Chavez Ravine start. Let us hope he never tops the numbers for this game.
His best part of the night was getting six straight swing and misses from Braun and Fielder with runners on 1st and 2nd. It was all downhill after that, as he couldn't find the strike zone, or when he did, they made him pay. Not like they hit him hard, Fielder was the only one who tagged him but because he had so many runners on base via the walk or HBP the bloops killed him, so he deserved this fate.
The Dodger ofense wasn't particularly effective either, driving in three runs against Naverson without the benefit of a base hit. Two sacrifice flies and a ground ball. Woo Hoo. Kemp hit a line drive ground rule double and that is the only ball I can remember being hit hard against him. The offense finally broke through with some hard hit shots in the eighth against Manny Parra, capped by a three run bomb to center field by James Loney who is putting those Dodger Stadium blues to bed.
Charlie Haeger provided some solid long relief knuckleballing his way to four innings of one run ball as he tries to prove he belongs in a major league bullpen. Going to be very curious who stays and who goes this Friday when Weaver is activated.
So the three game winning streak is over, we are still in last place, and now we are relying on Billingsley once again to provide relief.
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If you look at Kershaw's xFIP
last year it was 3.90 compared with a 3.07 ERA, so his huge season was built around some luck with the real low HR/FB numbers….this year he’s around a 4.78 xFIP. I don’t think he’s regressing, it’s just growing pains, the kid is only 22 years old
He is only 22
so we don’t know if he’ll turn into Randy Johnson or Oliver Perez, unless the TANSTAAPP folks are correct. But it is quite alarming that his walk rate has climbed since 2008.
Thats the part that scares me. He’s still young, but this is his 3rd year in the bigs. With his stuff and experience, he should be able to throw strikes and post at least an average to a little below average walk rate. What he has done this year just isnt acceptable for someone with his pedigree and stuff.
by UCLADodger32 on May 4, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I blame Rick Honeycutt. Someone get Leo Mazzone on the phone. Honeycutt may be doing a great job, what do I know, but someone has to take the fall.
Not a bad idea
Mazzone will teach a changeup, Honeycutt teaches a cutter.
by StolenMonkey86 on May 5, 2010 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I honestly don’t thing that Clayton is a smart person. There’s something missing upstairs.
Its like he wakes up in a new world every time he goes out there … and I don’t just mean to start the game – its every inning.
by shooterm1 on May 4, 2010 10:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Are you joking?
Let’s be patient with Kershaw.
by Roberto Baly on May 4, 2010 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I honestly don’t thing that Clayton is a smart person.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on May 5, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Shooterm1, I Honestly Don't Think You're A Smart Person
by CanuckDodger on May 4, 2010 10:44 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I really think that CK
has good stuff. But I’m not sure he has the stuff to be a dominant pitcher in the major leagues. He walks way too many guys. Normally he doesn’t hit people so I will chalk that up to a bad night. His stuff is so good at times, we marvel at it and wonder how he ever gets hit. But I think, by now, he should be able to get most major leaguers out consistently. I know he is only 22, but this is not good (I am overstating the obvious). When will he be the dominant pitcher, night in and night out, that we expect? I want CK to be a Dodger legend and it bothers me when this shit happens. I hope he figures it out, because the Dodgers NEED him to be the guy for the next 15 years. I am rambling and I apologize for the rant. Just frustrated and want us to win. Go Blue
Dude did have the 8th best FIP in baseball last year. I get as frustrated as anyone with his control issues, but he does have dominant stuff and has shown it in the past. The run he went on in the second half of last year was pretty phenomenal except for pitch count issues. His biggest problem is location of his secondary pitches. He is throwing more slider and fewer curveballs, which was supposed to help his control, but it has had the opposite effect. Without a consistent breaking ball, hitters just sit fastball. Most of the time they still cant square it up because it gets on them so fast, but it does lead to foul balls, extended AB’s, etc. I just hope that this is a rut he is going through and he will turn it around like he did last year.
by UCLADodger32 on May 4, 2010 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Jon has a good post up about Kershaws last horrid start and what he did after…
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on May 4, 2010 10:59 PM PDT reply actions
I guess Kershaw is going to be pretty inconsistent if he has control problems
Once he learns to pitch, that’s going to be trouble.
Just playing devil's advocate here...
…but this almost makes me wish we had traded him at the deadline for Lee or Halladay…almost.
That's everybody
I’ve run out of sites I can go to without reading Dodger fans hammering members of our good young nucleus any time they have one bad game. Martin, Kemp, Loney, Billingsley, Broxton, and now Kershaw. If it isn’t the idiotic LA media, it’s some moron fan. Is there any such thing as loyalty any more.
Kershaw had a bad game. If everyone associated with the organization questions anything they can about his make-up, desire, whatever else they can dream up, maybe it will lead to him struggling more and then everyone can get their wish. He can be traded for something later on, or just sign with another team like all the rest I mention will do.
I won’t blame any of our young nucleus for leaving this organization when they get the chance. Long gone are the days of loyalty to this team and its players.
1) The title is a joke, the same as the preseason article by Dave Cameron on ESPN that Phil overreacted to without reading the column, and that an editor provided the title (not Cameron)
2) Other than the title, which again was a joke, there is nothing in Phil’s recap that hammers Kershaw, other than to report the fact that he didn’t have a bad game.
3) It’s not like this is Kershaw’s only bad game this season. His first start in Pittsburgh was bad, and the home opener wasn’t very good although he only gave up two runs. He has walked seven batters per nine innings this season, worst in baseball
Loyalty does not mean turning a blind eye to a bad performance
Ha, I guess I should stay away from inside jokes
I figured all long time readers would laugh at the title, was a little surprised to see the reaction.
“
If you don’t know me by now, I guess you will never never know me”
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I knew Kensai wouldn’t get it; he doesn’t have a sense of humor, but tries to hide that fact by adding :o
:)
Yeah
was a little surprised, but he only reads his whoring comments, not our content.
I understand the Penguinator being irritated as he wasn’t around a month ago, but as you said, there was nothing in the actual content to follow up the title so what the fuck is he whining about. I’ll have to ask him.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Conversely
Did it ever occur to you two that maybe you were the ones who didn’t get my comment?
:P
by Chad Moriyama on May 5, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
i gave a little snicker at the title
It is a little painful to think that someone we have such high hopes for this season and into the future is struggling out of the gate, but my faith is not broken and next time his turn comes up I expect to see CK circa Oct 8, 2009, in and out of trouble but with dominant stuff in the zone.
Maybe you should have flashed back to 2009 and said “Clayton Kershaw is Not Our Guy”.
by MammothDodger on May 5, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I should have
but I still think many new members would not have gotten the inside joke
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
don’t care.
one of the first things I did when I got here was read some of the archives. If the newer (have to say it that way as I have been here less than a year) members do not want to learn about how TBLA functions then ban them and they can go rant on some other blog.
by MammothDodger on May 5, 2010 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
sorry or whatever
I was fussing more at the fan or fans who were hammering Kershaw in the comments section. But, yea, I didn’t get the joke.
I just get tired of so many Dodger sites that talk worse about Dodger players than any Giants fan ever could.
Any way, I’ll go back to the background where I belong.
That's everybody
I’ve run out of sites I can go to without reading Dodger fans hammering members of our good young nucleus any time they have one bad game. Martin, Kemp, Loney, Billingsley, Broxton, and now Kershaw. If it isn’t the idiotic LA media, it’s some moron fan. Is there any such thing as loyalty any more.
Kershaw had a bad game. If everyone associated with the organization questions anything they can about his make-up, desire, whatever else they can dream up, maybe it will lead to him struggling more and then everyone can get their wish. He can be traded for something later on, or just sign with another team like all the rest I mention will do.
I won’t blame any of our young nucleus for leaving this organization when they get the chance. Long gone are the days of loyalty to this team and its players.
WTF
are you whining about. Other then the title which was a joke there is nothing in the recap hammering on our young players. Nothing or am I supposed to write a recap and ignore the fact the starting pitcher gave up the most runs in his career at home in one inning?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Lighten up. It was a tongue in cheek joke. I am offended that you would question Phil’s loyalty to the Dodgers. Unless, of course, the Penguinator’s double post was a joke as well…
and on the 93rd postseason of the National Hockey League, the Slovakian-hockeygod Zeus commanded from high atop Mount Figueroa..."RELEASE THE MEAT TRAIN!" And it was good.
by DodgerBlueBalls on May 5, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
If you saw me pitch
you’d think I was really dumb.
I really don't think it's the end of the world.
if you have a pitcher that gives hree quality starts and then one horrible one. It’s just hard to watch when the Dodgers are down 10 zip. I’m still looking forward to Kershaws next start.
I just wish I didn't already own him on my fantasy team.
I bet you can buy Clayton cheap from all these chicken littles.
At least you'll get a complete game shutout tonight
by Michael White on May 5, 2010 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm really really considering
making a move to try and get Billingsley from the manager who owns him.
I wish
I had benched Kershaw and started Fielder instead of the opposite.
Seriously, this was one bad game. If anything, Kershaw just had no control of his curve and change, so hitters looked like they were sitting fastball.
Good thing I had Oswalt and Lincecum pitching too.
by robotmadeofnails on May 5, 2010 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s easy to play fantasy baseball the day after the games are played :)
by Michael White on May 5, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions
And so it begins…
:-)
and on the 93rd postseason of the National Hockey League, the Slovakian-hockeygod Zeus commanded from high atop Mount Figueroa..."RELEASE THE MEAT TRAIN!" And it was good.
by DodgerBlueBalls on May 5, 2010 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, Saturday is looking more and more like a bullpen game. On the 25-man roster, the choices are three guys who all pitched last night:
Monasterios: 31 pitches
Haeger: 67 pitches
Ortiz the Elder: 28 pitches
Torre said he wouldn’t bring Kershaw (57 pitches) back on Saturday on 3-days rest, although I would consider it because McDonald can pitch Sunday on full rest :)
Is Elbert available?
I know he’s been sucking in AAA, but all you would have to do is let Elbert start on Saturday and then option him after the game, which will allow the Dodgers to activate Weaver.
I would not start Kershaw on short rest either.
by Michael White on May 5, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Where can you find reading material on things such as options, rule 5 players, etc.? Would it be in the official MLB rules?
Dave and Eric have an unhealthy knowledge
of that information, are you sure you want to join that company?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/info/cba.jsp
Has a PDF of the collective bargaining agreement, and the joint drug agreement. Lots of great stuff in there.
I gotta think Ortiz or Haeger get DFA’d on Friday when Weaver is activated, with the survivor teaming with Monasterios for Saturday’s game.
Of course, Sherrill might magically develop a sore elbow or some sort of malady in the next couple of days, too.
I'm thinking that might happen
when I asked Joe what George was doing to solve his mechanical issues, he said he’s already done them and now they just have to hope he’s okay when the takes the mound.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
If the DFA occurs...
I’m rooting for Ortiz to hit the trails…
and on the 93rd postseason of the National Hockey League, the Slovakian-hockeygod Zeus commanded from high atop Mount Figueroa..."RELEASE THE MEAT TRAIN!" And it was good.
by DodgerBlueBalls on May 5, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Well I don't get the feeling that Clayton is real bright either
he’s from Texas
he loves George Bush
hes’ from Texas
But being bright and being a great pitcher have nothing to do with one another. Fellow Texan Roger Clemens was a stupid ass and he had quite a career. If it wasn’t for baseball his life would have led him to the back of a pickup.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I don't know how bright he is
but he grew up in old money Highland Park which kind of explains a fondness for Bush.
To put last night's start in perspective
Last night, Kershaw allowed seven runs
In Kershaw’s previous five starts at home, he allowed seven runs
On the plus side
James Loney’s three run bomb to center field was beautiful to hear and see.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I’m surprised there were enough fans left to hear the cheers. It was the 8th right? Down by a lot in the 8th. I don’t think I’d stay for that if I was a season ticket holder.
by Dodgerblue8188 on May 5, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
50,000 last night
and enough were left that the place sounded loud when he hit it. My seats used to be next to the bullpen and when awesome things happened it sounded loud but not crazy loud, I’ve noticed in the Press Box that even slight cheers sound very loud. When the crowd goes crazy it is crazy load there. That is what makes me want to get up and shout, but instead I have to bite my hand.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
It also hurt the statistic for games the Dodgers win when they hit a 3-run homer. But in all seriousness, I’m glad he hit a big one.
by StolenMonkey86 on May 5, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Statistics are made to be skewed
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on May 5, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Loney now has a slug% of .468
I’ll have to check but I’m betting that is the highest it has been since his 2007 season.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
For those of us who felt that 2010 was Loney's make or break year as a Dodger
that is very, very welcome. Good on ya, Loney!
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
I think if Loney continues to do well this year
we can give him like two maybe three years, it’d be a grave error to give him more than 5 with such a shoddy playing history.
by Seanny Rotten on May 5, 2010 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not suggesting that anyone should be signing long-term deals with the guy
But heading into 2010, my attitude — and that of some others — was this:
1) Loney should be given 700 PA as the Dodgers 1B this year, no matter what happens
2) If he repeats 2009 or shows only marginal improvement, look to replace him this coming offseason
3) If he breaks out in 2010 and shows himself to be the player he may be capable of being, then stick with him for the near future
We can decide what to do about Loney’s FA years at a later date.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
I concur wholeheartedly
The problem is the Dodgers are a bit too reluctant to lock up their young talent (Kemp, Ethier, Bills, etc.).
It’s truly going to kill me if Kemp goes to the Yankees his first FA eligible year. So far, with the way the McCourts run the team it’s looking that way.
by Seanny Rotten on May 5, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ll say this, the Kid’s 47.25 ERA last night did not help my struggling fantasy team.
by Little Blue Bicycle on May 5, 2010 9:16 AM PDT reply actions
yours and mine both. Unfortunately I made a last minute change to put him in my rotation.
by Dodgerblue8188 on May 5, 2010 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Almost dropped him and then thought, no, it’s the Brewers!
by Little Blue Bicycle on May 5, 2010 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Koufax
I wonder what the comments among fans were during the early years when Koufax was struggling. He walked a lot and then became one of the best. I think we just have set the bar too high for Kershaw. He’s had 1 full season so we expect him to win 18-20 games when in reality it might just take another 2-3 years to become the guy that will be a true ACE.
by Dodgerblue8188 on May 5, 2010 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. Very few pitchers start out like Felix or Tim
by robotmadeofnails on May 5, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Problem is
in Koufax’s day you could afford to have patience because he was always going to be under team control. Since we brought up Kershaw so young our team control does not extend into what might be his most productive years. For us to get value from Clayton he has to be great early, and that is a tough expectation but it is what it is.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That was more of an “oh crap” I’m bummed that makes sense
by robotmadeofnails on May 5, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed but now you’re talking about two different things. One, getting value for him as a Dodger. Two, getting better as the years go by. I wasn’t really refering to him giving us the best value money can buy. I was just making a point to the others that seem to think he should be an All Star ACE.
Keep in mind we did get a great pitcher in Kershaw last year. He was a reason we won the division. So we got a great pitcher for what 300k?
It probably won’t matter anyway because the owner will just let him slip away to Boston or NY his contract year.
by Dodgerblue8188 on May 5, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
With how this team is put together
he kind of does have to be an ace doesn’t he? I mean we are not going to be players if Clayton is not our best pitcher unless Chad really does do a reversal and bounces all the way back. That expectation might be unrealistic but it was founded on his progress last year.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Personally I don’t think we’ll be players unless Kershaw is just as good if not better than in 2009, Billingsley goes back to his pre 2008 All Star form and Kuroda at least pitches how he did in 2008. That would leave 3 good playoff pitchers which could win a 5 game series but mean we’d still be in trouble during a 7 game series. Most teams are probably in the same situation though. Not a lot of teams have much depth after number 3 in there rotation. Depth that can win playoff games at least. Too bad Padilla couldn’t have just been a .500 pitcher this year.
by Dodgerblue8188 on May 5, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
The Yanks
did just fine w/ a 3 man rotation last year. The Phils arguably got sunk because they did NOT have a 3 man rotation last year and weren’t able to start CLee more.
by Seanny Rotten on May 5, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed...
…but another problem is that the media coverage today is exponentially beyond what it was back then. Koufax gives up 7 runs in the 2nd and gets yanked? You may have listened to it on radio, and then read about it in the morning paper(s). Then it’s over and you wait for his next start. No talk radio after the game or the next day, no internet coverage with instant analysis, and certainly no blogsphere for the discussion. It’s all taken away any kind of patience one may have for a 22 year old who is still learning to pitch at the highest level.
Everyone needs to sit back and take a breath and assume he’ll do better in his next start. One shit game does not a trend make.
by KellyStephen on May 5, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
and I agree with you. If he comes back next game and pitches 6 innings of 2 or less runs walking no more than 1-2 batters and striking out his normal 1 per inning it will say a lot on him growing as a major leaguer. Everybody has bad games.
by Dodgerblue8188 on May 5, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Aw man
Koufax! What a disgrace! At 22 he led the league in wild pitches, and was at SIX bb/9IP.
And as you all know, he never, ever turned it around. Once you don’t have control you’re cooked.
by Seanny Rotten on May 5, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
NFSUT
Recommended reading
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/5/5/1459228/fullpitch-com-interviews-gm-fred
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Also
Jon Weisman with the numbers after Kershaws previous worst start in 2009
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-thoughts/post/_/id/4643/this-is-not-a-prediction-just-an-observation
That should leave us feeling positive.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Ernie Harwell HOF Induction speech:
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/Ernie_Harwell_HOF_Induction.shtml
Good stuff!
For great links like this
make a fan shot otherwise it will get buried never to be found or read.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Just finished the interview from the post above.
I really want to see a championship here soon. I was only 9 when we won in October…I want to know what it feels like as an adult
by robotmadeofnails on May 5, 2010 10:49 AM PDT reply actions
I don't want my nucleus to get any smaller
There are four player on this team I hope stay for over 5 more years:Kemp, Ethier, Brox and Kershaw. Even after last night. If somehow the Dodgers trade Kershaw, they will have no Ace prospect in sight.
I’ve seen several top line pitchers get bombed in the first few innings, so I’m not worried at all about CK.
No need to worry
Kershaw isn’t going anywhere.
by Eric Stephen on May 5, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
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