FanPost

May 5th, Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Brewers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
MIL LAN D.Davis vs C.Billingsley LAN 64.66% 63.88%

 

Notes:  Things can't get much worse than this for the Dodgers.  The Dodgers got blown out in a game in which they were heavy-heavy favorites.  They will wake up Wednesday to once again being rather large favorites.  Who knows what to expect with this team.  Expect the unexpected.  With that being said... get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 MIL 4-0   101 MIL 8-0
2 LAN 4-3   52 MIL 7-5   102 LAN 10-6
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 8-7   103 MIL 10-2
4 LAN 5-4   54 MIL 7-2   104 LAN 12-1
5 LAN 4-2   55 LAN 7-0   105 LAN 11-0
6 LAN 3-1   56 MIL 7-6   106 MIL 10-1
7 MIL 3-2   57 LAN 8-5   107 LAN 10-7
8 MIL 4-3   58 LAN 8-4   108 MIL 10-5
9 LAN 5-2   59 MIL 5-0   109 LAN 11-5
10 LAN 5-3   60 LAN 9-2   110 MIL 10-6
11 LAN 4-1   61 LAN 9-1   111 LAN 12-3
12 MIL 2-1   62 MIL 7-1   112 LAN 12-2
13 LAN 6-5   63 MIL 8-3   113 LAN 10-9
14 LAN 1-0   64 LAN 9-3   114 LAN 11-6
15 MIL 4-2   65 LAN 8-0   115 LAN 12-4
16 LAN 3-0   66 MIL 8-4   116 MIL 9-0
17 LAN 5-1   67 LAN 8-6   117 MIL 11-3
18 LAN 2-0   68 LAN 9-4   118 MIL 11-4
19 MIL 5-4   69 MIL 8-6   119 MIL 10-7
20 LAN 6-3   70 MIL 8-5   120 MIL 11-2
21 MIL 3-1   71 MIL 8-2   121 LAN 13-2
22 MIL 5-3   72 MIL 6-0   122 MIL 11-5
23 LAN 6-2   73 LAN 10-2   123 LAN 10-8
24 LAN 6-4   74 MIL 8-7   124 MIL 11-6
25 LAN 4-0   75 LAN 10-1   125 MIL 10-9
26 LAN 6-1   76 MIL 8-1   126 MIL 10-8
27 MIL 5-2   77 MIL 9-2   127 LAN 12-5
28 MIL 4-1   78 LAN 10-3   128 LAN 13-3
29 LAN 7-6   79 MIL 9-3   129 MIL 10-0
30 LAN 5-0   80 LAN 9-0   130 LAN 12-0
31 MIL 6-4   81 MIL 9-4   131 LAN 13-1
32 LAN 7-2   82 LAN 9-8   132 LAN 13-4
33 MIL 6-5   83 MIL 9-5   133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 7-4   84 LAN 10-4   134 MIL 12-4
35 LAN 7-3   85 LAN 9-5   135 MIL 11-1
36 MIL 1-0   86 LAN 11-2   136 MIL 11-7
37 MIL 6-3   87 LAN 9-6   137 LAN 14-2
38 LAN 7-1   88 MIL 7-0   138 MIL 12-5
39 MIL 2-0   89 MIL 9-6   139 MIL 12-3
40 LAN 6-0   90 LAN 11-1   140 LAN 11-8
41 MIL 5-1   91 LAN 11-3   141 LAN 12-6
42 MIL 6-2   92 LAN 10-0   142 MIL 12-2
43 LAN 7-5   93 LAN 9-7   143 LAN 11-10
44 MIL 3-0   94 MIL 10-4   144 LAN 13-0
45 LAN 8-2   95 LAN 10-5   145 MIL 12-1
46 LAN 8-3   96 MIL 9-1   146 LAN 14-3
47 LAN 8-1   97 LAN 11-4   147 MIL 11-8
48 MIL 7-4   98 MIL 10-3   148 MIL 11-9
49 MIL 6-1   99 MIL 9-8   149 MIL 11-0
50 MIL 7-3   100 MIL 9-7   150 LAN 14-1
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