FanPost

May 5th, Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Brewers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
MIL LAN D.Davis vs C.Billingsley LAN 64.66% 63.88%

 

Notes:  Things can't get much worse than this for the Dodgers.  The Dodgers got blown out in a game in which they were heavy-heavy favorites.  They will wake up Wednesday to once again being rather large favorites.  Who knows what to expect with this team.  Expect the unexpected.  With that being said... get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 51 MIL 4-0 &nbsp 101 MIL 8-0
2 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 52 MIL 7-5 &nbsp 102 LAN 10-6
3 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 53 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 103 MIL 10-2
4 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 54 MIL 7-2 &nbsp 104 LAN 12-1
5 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 55 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 105 LAN 11-0
6 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 56 MIL 7-6 &nbsp 106 MIL 10-1
7 MIL 3-2 &nbsp 57 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 107 LAN 10-7
8 MIL 4-3 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 108 MIL 10-5
9 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 59 MIL 5-0 &nbsp 109 LAN 11-5
10 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 60 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 110 MIL 10-6
11 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 61 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 111 LAN 12-3
12 MIL 2-1 &nbsp 62 MIL 7-1 &nbsp 112 LAN 12-2
13 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 63 MIL 8-3 &nbsp 113 LAN 10-9
14 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 64 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 114 LAN 11-6
15 MIL 4-2 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 115 LAN 12-4
16 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 66 MIL 8-4 &nbsp 116 MIL 9-0
17 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 67 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 117 MIL 11-3
18 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 68 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 118 MIL 11-4
19 MIL 5-4 &nbsp 69 MIL 8-6 &nbsp 119 MIL 10-7
20 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 70 MIL 8-5 &nbsp 120 MIL 11-2
21 MIL 3-1 &nbsp 71 MIL 8-2 &nbsp 121 LAN 13-2
22 MIL 5-3 &nbsp 72 MIL 6-0 &nbsp 122 MIL 11-5
23 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 73 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 123 LAN 10-8
24 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 74 MIL 8-7 &nbsp 124 MIL 11-6
25 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 75 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 125 MIL 10-9
26 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 76 MIL 8-1 &nbsp 126 MIL 10-8
27 MIL 5-2 &nbsp 77 MIL 9-2 &nbsp 127 LAN 12-5
28 MIL 4-1 &nbsp 78 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 128 LAN 13-3
29 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 79 MIL 9-3 &nbsp 129 MIL 10-0
30 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 80 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 130 LAN 12-0
31 MIL 6-4 &nbsp 81 MIL 9-4 &nbsp 131 LAN 13-1
32 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 82 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 132 LAN 13-4
33 MIL 6-5 &nbsp 83 MIL 9-5 &nbsp 133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 84 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 134 MIL 12-4
35 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 85 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 135 MIL 11-1
36 MIL 1-0 &nbsp 86 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 136 MIL 11-7
37 MIL 6-3 &nbsp 87 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 137 LAN 14-2
38 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 88 MIL 7-0 &nbsp 138 MIL 12-5
39 MIL 2-0 &nbsp 89 MIL 9-6 &nbsp 139 MIL 12-3
40 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 90 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 140 LAN 11-8
41 MIL 5-1 &nbsp 91 LAN 11-3 &nbsp 141 LAN 12-6
42 MIL 6-2 &nbsp 92 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 142 MIL 12-2
43 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 93 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 143 LAN 11-10
44 MIL 3-0 &nbsp 94 MIL 10-4 &nbsp 144 LAN 13-0
45 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 95 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 145 MIL 12-1
46 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 96 MIL 9-1 &nbsp 146 LAN 14-3
47 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 97 LAN 11-4 &nbsp 147 MIL 11-8
48 MIL 7-4 &nbsp 98 MIL 10-3 &nbsp 148 MIL 11-9
49 MIL 6-1 &nbsp 99 MIL 9-8 &nbsp 149 MIL 11-0
50 MIL 7-3 &nbsp 100 MIL 9-7 &nbsp 150 LAN 14-1
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