FanPost

May 6th, Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Brewers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 10:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
MIL LAN D.Bush vs J.Ely LAN 54.95% 57.82%

 

Notes:  Big favorite lose.  Big favorite lose.  Small favorite ?.  Do you see a pattern here?  I sure do.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 LAN 8-2   101 LAN 9-0
2 LAN 3-2   52 MIL 8-3   102 LAN 11-2
3 LAN 5-4   53 MIL 8-4   103 MIL 8-0
4 LAN 4-2   54 LAN 8-6   104 MIL 10-1
5 LAN 2-1   55 MIL 3-0   105 MIL 11-4
6 LAN 6-5   56 MIL 2-0   106 MIL 10-7
7 MIL 4-3   57 MIL 1-0   107 LAN 10-6
8 MIL 3-2   58 MIL 8-7   108 MIL 11-3
9 LAN 5-3   59 MIL 8-6   109 LAN 11-4
10 LAN 3-1   60 MIL 8-5   110 MIL 11-5
11 MIL 5-4   61 MIL 4-0   111 MIL 10-8
12 LAN 5-2   62 MIL 8-2   112 LAN 10-8
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 8-1   113 MIL 11-2
14 MIL 5-3   64 MIL 7-1   114 LAN 11-5
15 LAN 7-6   65 LAN 9-3   115 LAN 11-6
16 LAN 6-4   66 LAN 6-0   116 LAN 11-1
17 MIL 4-2   67 MIL 5-0   117 MIL 10-9
18 LAN 6-3   68 LAN 9-2   118 MIL 11-6
19 MIL 6-5   69 MIL 9-4   119 MIL 9-0
20 MIL 6-4   70 LAN 9-8   120 LAN 12-4
21 MIL 2-1   71 MIL 9-3   121 MIL 11-7
22 MIL 3-1   72 LAN 9-5   122 LAN 12-2
23 MIL 5-2   73 LAN 7-0   123 LAN 10-0
24 LAN 6-2   74 MIL 9-5   124 MIL 12-4
25 MIL 6-3   75 LAN 9-4   125 LAN 12-3
26 LAN 5-1   76 MIL 8-1   126 MIL 11-1
27 MIL 4-1   77 MIL 9-2   127 MIL 12-3
28 LAN 7-5   78 MIL 9-6   128 LAN 12-1
29 LAN 7-4   79 MIL 6-0   129 LAN 11-7
30 MIL 6-2   80 LAN 9-6   130 MIL 12-5
31 LAN 7-3   81 LAN 9-1   131 MIL 11-8
32 LAN 3-0   82 LAN 10-2   132 LAN 11-10
33 LAN 6-1   83 MIL 9-7   133 MIL 12-2
34 LAN 8-7   84 LAN 8-0   134 LAN 12-5
35 LAN 1-0   85 LAN 10-4   135 MIL 10-0
36 MIL 5-1   86 LAN 10-3   136 LAN 11-8
37 LAN 7-2   87 LAN 9-7   137 LAN 13-4
38 MIL 7-6   88 MIL 9-1   138 LAN 11-0
39 MIL 7-5   89 MIL 9-8   139 MIL 12-1
40 LAN 2-0   90 MIL 10-2   140 MIL 12-6
41 MIL 7-4   91 MIL 10-3   141 LAN 13-2
42 MIL 7-3   92 MIL 7-0   142 MIL 11-9
43 LAN 4-0   93 MIL 10-4   143 LAN 12-6
44 MIL 7-2   94 LAN 10-1   144 LAN 11-9
45 LAN 7-1   95 MIL 10-5   145 MIL 11-10
46 MIL 6-1   96 LAN 10-9   146 MIL 12-7
47 LAN 5-0   97 LAN 10-5   147 MIL 13-4
48 LAN 8-5   98 LAN 10-7   148 MIL 13-5
49 LAN 8-3   99 MIL 10-6   149 LAN 13-3
50 LAN 8-4   100 LAN 11-3   150 LAN 12-7
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