FanPost

May 6th, Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Brewers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 10:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
MIL LAN D.Bush vs J.Ely LAN 54.95% 57.82%

 

Notes:  Big favorite lose.  Big favorite lose.  Small favorite ?.  Do you see a pattern here?  I sure do.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 51 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 101 LAN 9-0
2 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 52 MIL 8-3 &nbsp 102 LAN 11-2
3 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 53 MIL 8-4 &nbsp 103 MIL 8-0
4 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 54 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 104 MIL 10-1
5 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 55 MIL 3-0 &nbsp 105 MIL 11-4
6 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 56 MIL 2-0 &nbsp 106 MIL 10-7
7 MIL 4-3 &nbsp 57 MIL 1-0 &nbsp 107 LAN 10-6
8 MIL 3-2 &nbsp 58 MIL 8-7 &nbsp 108 MIL 11-3
9 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 59 MIL 8-6 &nbsp 109 LAN 11-4
10 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 60 MIL 8-5 &nbsp 110 MIL 11-5
11 MIL 5-4 &nbsp 61 MIL 4-0 &nbsp 111 MIL 10-8
12 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 62 MIL 8-2 &nbsp 112 LAN 10-8
13 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 63 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 113 MIL 11-2
14 MIL 5-3 &nbsp 64 MIL 7-1 &nbsp 114 LAN 11-5
15 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 65 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 115 LAN 11-6
16 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 66 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 116 LAN 11-1
17 MIL 4-2 &nbsp 67 MIL 5-0 &nbsp 117 MIL 10-9
18 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 68 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 118 MIL 11-6
19 MIL 6-5 &nbsp 69 MIL 9-4 &nbsp 119 MIL 9-0
20 MIL 6-4 &nbsp 70 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 120 LAN 12-4
21 MIL 2-1 &nbsp 71 MIL 9-3 &nbsp 121 MIL 11-7
22 MIL 3-1 &nbsp 72 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 122 LAN 12-2
23 MIL 5-2 &nbsp 73 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 123 LAN 10-0
24 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 74 MIL 9-5 &nbsp 124 MIL 12-4
25 MIL 6-3 &nbsp 75 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 125 LAN 12-3
26 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 76 MIL 8-1 &nbsp 126 MIL 11-1
27 MIL 4-1 &nbsp 77 MIL 9-2 &nbsp 127 MIL 12-3
28 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 78 MIL 9-6 &nbsp 128 LAN 12-1
29 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 79 MIL 6-0 &nbsp 129 LAN 11-7
30 MIL 6-2 &nbsp 80 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 130 MIL 12-5
31 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 81 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 131 MIL 11-8
32 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 82 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 132 LAN 11-10
33 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 83 MIL 9-7 &nbsp 133 MIL 12-2
34 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 84 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 134 LAN 12-5
35 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 85 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 135 MIL 10-0
36 MIL 5-1 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 136 LAN 11-8
37 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 87 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 137 LAN 13-4
38 MIL 7-6 &nbsp 88 MIL 9-1 &nbsp 138 LAN 11-0
39 MIL 7-5 &nbsp 89 MIL 9-8 &nbsp 139 MIL 12-1
40 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 90 MIL 10-2 &nbsp 140 MIL 12-6
41 MIL 7-4 &nbsp 91 MIL 10-3 &nbsp 141 LAN 13-2
42 MIL 7-3 &nbsp 92 MIL 7-0 &nbsp 142 MIL 11-9
43 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 93 MIL 10-4 &nbsp 143 LAN 12-6
44 MIL 7-2 &nbsp 94 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 144 LAN 11-9
45 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 95 MIL 10-5 &nbsp 145 MIL 11-10
46 MIL 6-1 &nbsp 96 LAN 10-9 &nbsp 146 MIL 12-7
47 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 97 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 147 MIL 13-4
48 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 98 LAN 10-7 &nbsp 148 MIL 13-5
49 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 99 MIL 10-6 &nbsp 149 LAN 13-3
50 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 100 LAN 11-3 &nbsp 150 LAN 12-7
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