FanPost

May 8th, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
COL LAN J.Chacin vs C.Haeger LAN 52.61% 54.92%

 

Notes:  Manny is back.  I can't even remember the last time the Dodgers lost when Manny was playing.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 LAN 8-7   101 LAN 10-9
2 LAN 3-2   52 COL 7-1   102 LAN 11-2
3 LAN 5-4   53 COL 8-3   103 COL 9-0
4 LAN 2-1   54 COL 8-4   104 COL 11-4
5 COL 3-2   55 COL 8-2   105 COL 11-3
6 COL 4-3   56 LAN 8-2   106 LAN 10-6
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 8-3   107 LAN 11-3
8 LAN 3-1   58 COL 8-5   108 LAN 10-7
9 LAN 6-5   59 COL 5-0   109 COL 11-2
10 COL 5-4   60 LAN 6-0   110 COL 10-7
11 LAN 5-3   61 LAN 8-4   111 LAN 11-1
12 COL 2-1   62 LAN 8-5   112 COL 11-1
13 COL 4-2   63 COL 6-0   113 COL 11-5
14 LAN 5-2   64 LAN 8-6   114 LAN 10-0
15 LAN 4-1   65 LAN 8-1   115 LAN 11-4
16 COL 5-3   66 COL 8-1   116 COL 12-4
17 COL 3-1   67 COL 8-6   117 COL 11-6
18 COL 5-2   68 LAN 9-2   118 LAN 11-6
19 LAN 6-3   69 COL 8-7   119 COL 12-3
20 LAN 6-4   70 COL 9-4   120 LAN 11-5
21 LAN 1-0   71 LAN 9-3   121 COL 10-8
22 COL 6-4   72 LAN 7-0   122 LAN 12-4
23 COL 4-1   73 COL 9-2   123 LAN 10-8
24 COL 6-3   74 COL 9-3   124 COL 10-0
25 COL 6-5   75 LAN 9-4   125 LAN 11-7
26 LAN 7-6   76 COL 9-5   126 COL 11-7
27 LAN 5-1   77 COL 7-0   127 COL 12-2
28 LAN 3-0   78 LAN 8-0   128 LAN 12-2
29 LAN 6-2   79 COL 9-1   129 LAN 12-3
30 COL 6-2   80 LAN 9-6   130 LAN 11-0
31 LAN 2-0   81 LAN 9-8   131 COL 10-9
32 COL 5-1   82 COL 9-6   132 COL 12-5
33 COL 7-4   83 LAN 9-5   133 COL 12-6
34 LAN 4-0   84 LAN 9-1   134 COL 13-3
35 COL 7-5   85 COL 10-3   135 LAN 12-5
36 LAN 6-1   86 LAN 10-3   136 LAN 12-1
37 LAN 7-4   87 COL 10-5   137 LAN 13-3
38 COL 7-3   88 LAN 10-2   138 COL 11-0
39 COL 2-0   89 COL 10-4   139 COL 12-1
40 COL 6-1   90 LAN 9-7   140 COL 12-7
41 COL 1-0   91 COL 8-0   141 LAN 11-8
42 LAN 7-2   92 COL 9-7   142 COL 13-2
43 LAN 7-3   93 LAN 10-1   143 COL 11-8
44 LAN 7-5   94 COL 10-2   144 COL 13-4
45 COL 3-0   95 LAN 10-4   145 LAN 13-4
46 COL 7-2   96 COL 9-8   146 LAN 13-2
47 COL 7-6   97 COL 10-6   147 LAN 12-7
48 LAN 5-0   98 COL 10-1   148 LAN 12-6
49 COL 4-0   99 LAN 9-0   149 COL 12-0
50 LAN 7-1   100 LAN 10-5   150 LAN 11-10
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