FanPost

May 8th, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
COL LAN J.Chacin vs C.Haeger LAN 52.61% 54.92%

 

Notes:  Manny is back.  I can't even remember the last time the Dodgers lost when Manny was playing.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 51 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 101 LAN 10-9
2 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 52 COL 7-1 &nbsp 102 LAN 11-2
3 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 53 COL 8-3 &nbsp 103 COL 9-0
4 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 54 COL 8-4 &nbsp 104 COL 11-4
5 COL 3-2 &nbsp 55 COL 8-2 &nbsp 105 COL 11-3
6 COL 4-3 &nbsp 56 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 106 LAN 10-6
7 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 57 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 107 LAN 11-3
8 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 58 COL 8-5 &nbsp 108 LAN 10-7
9 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 59 COL 5-0 &nbsp 109 COL 11-2
10 COL 5-4 &nbsp 60 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 110 COL 10-7
11 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 61 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 111 LAN 11-1
12 COL 2-1 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 112 COL 11-1
13 COL 4-2 &nbsp 63 COL 6-0 &nbsp 113 COL 11-5
14 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 64 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 114 LAN 10-0
15 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 115 LAN 11-4
16 COL 5-3 &nbsp 66 COL 8-1 &nbsp 116 COL 12-4
17 COL 3-1 &nbsp 67 COL 8-6 &nbsp 117 COL 11-6
18 COL 5-2 &nbsp 68 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 118 LAN 11-6
19 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 69 COL 8-7 &nbsp 119 COL 12-3
20 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 70 COL 9-4 &nbsp 120 LAN 11-5
21 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 71 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 121 COL 10-8
22 COL 6-4 &nbsp 72 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 122 LAN 12-4
23 COL 4-1 &nbsp 73 COL 9-2 &nbsp 123 LAN 10-8
24 COL 6-3 &nbsp 74 COL 9-3 &nbsp 124 COL 10-0
25 COL 6-5 &nbsp 75 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 125 LAN 11-7
26 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 76 COL 9-5 &nbsp 126 COL 11-7
27 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 77 COL 7-0 &nbsp 127 COL 12-2
28 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 78 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 128 LAN 12-2
29 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 79 COL 9-1 &nbsp 129 LAN 12-3
30 COL 6-2 &nbsp 80 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 130 LAN 11-0
31 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 81 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 131 COL 10-9
32 COL 5-1 &nbsp 82 COL 9-6 &nbsp 132 COL 12-5
33 COL 7-4 &nbsp 83 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 133 COL 12-6
34 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 134 COL 13-3
35 COL 7-5 &nbsp 85 COL 10-3 &nbsp 135 LAN 12-5
36 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 136 LAN 12-1
37 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 87 COL 10-5 &nbsp 137 LAN 13-3
38 COL 7-3 &nbsp 88 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 138 COL 11-0
39 COL 2-0 &nbsp 89 COL 10-4 &nbsp 139 COL 12-1
40 COL 6-1 &nbsp 90 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 140 COL 12-7
41 COL 1-0 &nbsp 91 COL 8-0 &nbsp 141 LAN 11-8
42 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 92 COL 9-7 &nbsp 142 COL 13-2
43 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 93 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 143 COL 11-8
44 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 94 COL 10-2 &nbsp 144 COL 13-4
45 COL 3-0 &nbsp 95 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 145 LAN 13-4
46 COL 7-2 &nbsp 96 COL 9-8 &nbsp 146 LAN 13-2
47 COL 7-6 &nbsp 97 COL 10-6 &nbsp 147 LAN 12-7
48 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 98 COL 10-1 &nbsp 148 LAN 12-6
49 COL 4-0 &nbsp 99 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 149 COL 12-0
50 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 100 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 150 LAN 11-10
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