FanPost

Mother's Day, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
COL LAN U.Jimenez vs C.Kershaw COL 54.55% 47.36%

 

Notes:  Vegas doesn't have much confidence in the up and down Kershaw this afternoon.  Instead they have all the confidence in the world in the pitcher who has been consistently good.  Can you blame em?  Get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 51 COL 7-4 &nbsp 101 LAN 10-4
2 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 52 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 102 COL 9-7
3 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 53 COL 8-2 &nbsp 103 LAN 11-2
4 COL 2-1 &nbsp 54 COL 7-5 &nbsp 104 LAN 11-3
5 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 55 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 105 LAN 9-8
6 COL 3-2 &nbsp 56 COL 8-1 &nbsp 106 COL 11-4
7 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 57 COL 8-0 &nbsp 107 LAN 11-1
8 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 58 COL 8-3 &nbsp 108 COL 9-8
9 COL 1-0 &nbsp 59 COL 8-4 &nbsp 109 COL 12-1
10 COL 3-1 &nbsp 60 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 110 COL 12-2
11 COL 2-0 &nbsp 61 COL 7-6 &nbsp 111 LAN 9-7
12 COL 4-3 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 112 COL 10-6
13 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 63 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 113 COL 13-1
14 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 64 COL 9-1 &nbsp 114 LAN 11-0
15 COL 4-2 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 115 LAN 10-5
16 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 66 COL 9-2 &nbsp 116 COL 11-5
17 COL 3-0 &nbsp 67 COL 9-3 &nbsp 117 LAN 12-1
18 COL 4-1 &nbsp 68 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 118 LAN 10-6
19 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 69 COL 8-5 &nbsp 119 COL 10-7
20 COL 4-0 &nbsp 70 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 120 COL 10-8
21 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 71 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 121 LAN 12-2
22 COL 5-2 &nbsp 72 COL 9-0 &nbsp 122 LAN 11-4
23 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 123 COL 12-3
24 COL 5-3 &nbsp 74 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 124 LAN 13-1
25 COL 5-1 &nbsp 75 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 125 COL 11-6
26 COL 5-4 &nbsp 76 COL 9-4 &nbsp 126 LAN 11-5
27 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 77 COL 10-1 &nbsp 127 COL 12-4
28 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 78 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 128 COL 12-0
29 COL 5-0 &nbsp 79 COL 8-6 &nbsp 129 LAN 12-4
30 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 80 COL 10-3 &nbsp 130 LAN 10-7
31 COL 6-1 &nbsp 81 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 131 LAN 12-0
32 COL 6-2 &nbsp 82 COL 9-5 &nbsp 132 COL 13-3
33 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 83 COL 10-2 &nbsp 133 COL 13-0
34 COL 6-3 &nbsp 84 COL 8-7 &nbsp 134 LAN 12-5
35 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 85 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 135 LAN 10-8
36 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 86 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 136 COL 14-1
37 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 87 COL 10-0 &nbsp 137 COL 13-2
38 COL 6-0 &nbsp 88 COL 10-4 &nbsp 138 LAN 13-2
39 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 89 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 139 LAN 10-9
40 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 90 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 140 COL 13-4
41 COL 6-4 &nbsp 91 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 141 LAN 12-3
42 COL 7-2 &nbsp 92 COL 11-1 &nbsp 142 COL 10-9
43 COL 6-5 &nbsp 93 COL 11-2 &nbsp 143 LAN 11-7
44 COL 7-1 &nbsp 94 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 144 COL 11-7
45 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 95 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 145 COL 12-5
46 COL 7-3 &nbsp 96 COL 10-5 &nbsp 146 COL 12-7
47 COL 7-0 &nbsp 97 COL 9-6 &nbsp 147 LAN 11-6
48 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 98 COL 11-3 &nbsp 148 COL 14-2
49 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 99 COL 11-0 &nbsp 149 COL 12-6
50 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 100 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 150 COL 11-8
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