FanPost

Mother's Day, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
COL LAN U.Jimenez vs C.Kershaw COL 54.55% 47.36%

 

Notes:  Vegas doesn't have much confidence in the up and down Kershaw this afternoon.  Instead they have all the confidence in the world in the pitcher who has been consistently good.  Can you blame em?  Get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 COL 7-4   101 LAN 10-4
2 LAN 3-2   52 LAN 7-0   102 COL 9-7
3 LAN 1-0   53 COL 8-2   103 LAN 11-2
4 COL 2-1   54 COL 7-5   104 LAN 11-3
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 7-4   105 LAN 9-8
6 COL 3-2   56 COL 8-1   106 COL 11-4
7 LAN 2-0   57 COL 8-0   107 LAN 11-1
8 LAN 3-1   58 COL 8-3   108 COL 9-8
9 COL 1-0   59 COL 8-4   109 COL 12-1
10 COL 3-1   60 LAN 7-5   110 COL 12-2
11 COL 2-0   61 COL 7-6   111 LAN 9-7
12 COL 4-3   62 LAN 8-1   112 COL 10-6
13 LAN 4-2   63 LAN 8-2   113 COL 13-1
14 LAN 3-0   64 COL 9-1   114 LAN 11-0
15 COL 4-2   65 LAN 8-3   115 LAN 10-5
16 LAN 5-4   66 COL 9-2   116 COL 11-5
17 COL 3-0   67 COL 9-3   117 LAN 12-1
18 COL 4-1   68 LAN 8-0   118 LAN 10-6
19 LAN 4-1   69 COL 8-5   119 COL 10-7
20 COL 4-0   70 LAN 8-7   120 COL 10-8
21 LAN 4-0   71 LAN 8-4   121 LAN 12-2
22 COL 5-2   72 COL 9-0   122 LAN 11-4
23 LAN 5-2   73 LAN 9-1   123 COL 12-3
24 COL 5-3   74 LAN 9-2   124 LAN 13-1
25 COL 5-1   75 LAN 8-5   125 COL 11-6
26 COL 5-4   76 COL 9-4   126 LAN 11-5
27 LAN 5-3   77 COL 10-1   127 COL 12-4
28 LAN 5-1   78 LAN 9-0   128 COL 12-0
29 COL 5-0   79 COL 8-6   129 LAN 12-4
30 LAN 6-5   80 COL 10-3   130 LAN 10-7
31 COL 6-1   81 LAN 9-3   131 LAN 12-0
32 COL 6-2   82 COL 9-5   132 COL 13-3
33 LAN 5-0   83 COL 10-2   133 COL 13-0
34 COL 6-3   84 COL 8-7   134 LAN 12-5
35 LAN 6-2   85 LAN 8-6   135 LAN 10-8
36 LAN 6-3   86 LAN 9-4   136 COL 14-1
37 LAN 6-1   87 COL 10-0   137 COL 13-2
38 COL 6-0   88 COL 10-4   138 LAN 13-2
39 LAN 6-4   89 LAN 10-2   139 LAN 10-9
40 LAN 6-0   90 LAN 10-1   140 COL 13-4
41 COL 6-4   91 LAN 10-0   141 LAN 12-3
42 COL 7-2   92 COL 11-1   142 COL 10-9
43 COL 6-5   93 COL 11-2   143 LAN 11-7
44 COL 7-1   94 LAN 9-5   144 COL 11-7
45 LAN 7-1   95 LAN 10-3   145 COL 12-5
46 COL 7-3   96 COL 10-5   146 COL 12-7
47 COL 7-0   97 COL 9-6   147 LAN 11-6
48 LAN 7-6   98 COL 11-3   148 COL 14-2
49 LAN 7-2   99 COL 11-0   149 COL 12-6
50 LAN 7-3   100 LAN 9-6   150 COL 11-8
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