FanPost

May 10th, Dodgers vs DBacks - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 8:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN ARI C.Billingsley vs R.Lopez LAN 54.13% 55.80%

 

Notes:  Both Vegas and the Simulator both give the slight edge to the Dodgers in this game, making this game nearly a toss up.  Vegas also has the Over/Under at over 10 runs, so the betting public is expecting a high scoring game.  What do you think?  Get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 ARI 4-3   51 LAN 8-5   101 ARI 10-3
2 ARI 3-2   52 ARI 8-7   102 LAN 11-1
3 ARI 5-4   53 LAN 6-0   103 LAN 10-0
4 LAN 4-3   54 LAN 8-1   104 ARI 10-2
5 LAN 3-2   55 ARI 6-1   105 LAN 11-5
6 ARI 2-1   56 ARI 7-2   106 ARI 10-5
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 8-6   107 LAN 11-6
8 LAN 5-4   58 LAN 9-3   108 ARI 8-0
9 LAN 5-3   59 LAN 9-4   109 ARI 10-6
10 LAN 2-1   60 ARI 4-0   110 ARI 10-9
11 ARI 6-5   61 LAN 7-0   111 LAN 12-2
12 LAN 5-2   62 LAN 9-2   112 ARI 11-4
13 ARI 4-2   63 ARI 8-3   113 ARI 10-1
14 LAN 3-1   64 ARI 8-5   114 LAN 12-4
15 ARI 5-3   65 LAN 8-7   115 ARI 10-7
16 LAN 6-3   66 LAN 9-1   116 LAN 10-8
17 LAN 4-1   67 LAN 9-5   117 LAN 11-7
18 LAN 6-4   68 ARI 8-4   118 LAN 11-0
19 LAN 6-2   69 ARI 8-2   119 ARI 11-3
20 LAN 6-5   70 ARI 5-0   120 LAN 13-3
21 ARI 3-1   71 ARI 7-1   121 LAN 10-9
22 LAN 5-1   72 ARI 8-6   122 ARI 11-2
23 ARI 5-2   73 LAN 8-0   123 ARI 11-5
24 ARI 4-1   74 LAN 10-3   124 LAN 12-1
25 LAN 6-1   75 LAN 10-2   125 LAN 12-5
26 ARI 7-6   76 LAN 9-6   126 ARI 10-8
27 ARI 6-4   77 ARI 9-3   127 ARI 9-0
28 LAN 7-2   78 LAN 10-4   128 ARI 11-6
29 LAN 7-4   79 ARI 6-0   129 LAN 13-2
30 ARI 6-3   80 ARI 9-4   130 LAN 12-6
31 LAN 7-3   81 LAN 10-1   131 ARI 11-1
32 LAN 7-5   82 ARI 9-8   132 LAN 11-8
33 ARI 1-0   83 LAN 9-7   133 LAN 12-7
34 LAN 2-0   84 ARI 9-5   134 ARI 10-0
35 LAN 7-6   85 ARI 8-1   135 LAN 13-1
36 ARI 5-1   86 LAN 10-5   136 LAN 13-4
37 ARI 6-2   87 LAN 9-0   137 ARI 12-4
38 LAN 3-0   88 LAN 11-2   138 ARI 12-3
39 LAN 4-0   89 ARI 9-2   139 LAN 13-5
40 LAN 7-1   90 LAN 11-3   140 ARI 12-2
41 LAN 8-3   91 LAN 9-8   141 LAN 12-0
42 LAN 1-0   92 ARI 9-7   142 LAN 11-9
43 LAN 8-2   93 LAN 11-4   143 ARI 11-7
44 LAN 8-4   94 ARI 9-6   144 ARI 11-8
45 ARI 7-4   95 LAN 10-6   145 ARI 11-10
46 LAN 5-0   96 ARI 9-1   146 LAN 14-2
47 ARI 7-5   97 ARI 7-0   147 LAN 14-5
48 ARI 7-3   98 LAN 10-7   148 LAN 14-4
49 ARI 3-0   99 ARI 10-4   149 ARI 13-3
50 ARI 2-0   100 LAN 12-3   150 LAN 11-10
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