June 1st, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jun 1, 2010 12:12 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:00 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| ARI | LAN | D.Haren vs J.Ely | LAN | 55.16% | 65.16% |
Notes: Vegas makes the Dodgers a slight favorite with John Ely on the mound, while the simulator goes all in on the Dodgers. The simulator is obviously weighting more recent performance much heavier than the Vegas oddsmakers on this one. Let's see who is right. Get your game score guesses in and remember to answer the bonus question(s) for five extra points if you get all of them correct. See below for bonus point question(s).
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 3-2 | 51 ARI 7-4 | 101 ARI 9-6 | ||
| 2 LAN 2-1 | 52 ARI 6-1 | 102 ARI 10-2 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 | 53 ARI 7-3 | 103 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-1 | 54 LAN 9-1 | 104 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 5 LAN 4-2 | 55 LAN 8-4 | 105 ARI 9-7 | ||
| 6 LAN 4-1 | 56 LAN 9-2 | 106 ARI 10-3 | ||
| 7 LAN 1-0 | 57 ARI 7-5 | 107 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 8 LAN 5-4 | 58 ARI 7-2 | 108 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 9 LAN 2-0 | 59 LAN 9-3 | 109 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 10 ARI 3-2 | 60 ARI 5-0 | 110 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 11 LAN 3-0 | 61 LAN 9-0 | 111 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 12 LAN 5-2 | 62 ARI 7-6 | 112 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 13 ARI 2-1 | 63 ARI 7-1 | 113 ARI 10-5 | ||
| 14 LAN 5-1 | 64 LAN 10-1 | 114 ARI 9-0 | ||
| 15 ARI 4-3 | 65 LAN 8-5 | 115 ARI 10-1 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 | 66 LAN 8-7 | 116 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 17 LAN 4-0 | 67 ARI 8-3 | 117 ARI 9-8 | ||
| 18 ARI 4-2 | 68 LAN 10-2 | 118 ARI 10-6 | ||
| 19 ARI 3-1 | 69 LAN 9-4 | 119 ARI 11-2 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-0 | 70 ARI 6-0 | 120 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 21 LAN 6-3 | 71 LAN 10-0 | 121 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 22 LAN 6-2 | 72 ARI 8-4 | 122 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 23 LAN 6-1 | 73 LAN 10-3 | 123 ARI 11-3 | ||
| 24 LAN 6-5 | 74 ARI 8-2 | 124 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 25 ARI 5-4 | 75 ARI 8-5 | 125 ARI 11-4 | ||
| 26 ARI 5-3 | 76 LAN 8-6 | 126 ARI 10-0 | ||
| 27 ARI 4-1 | 77 ARI 8-1 | 127 ARI 10-7 | ||
| 28 ARI 1-0 | 78 LAN 11-2 | 128 ARI 11-1 | ||
| 29 ARI 5-2 | 79 LAN 11-1 | 129 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-4 | 80 ARI 9-3 | 130 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-0 | 81 ARI 8-6 | 131 ARI 11-5 | ||
| 32 ARI 2-0 | 82 LAN 9-5 | 132 LAN 14-2 | ||
| 33 LAN 7-1 | 83 ARI 9-4 | 133 ARI 12-2 | ||
| 34 LAN 7-2 | 84 LAN 9-6 | 134 ARI 12-3 | ||
| 35 ARI 3-0 | 85 ARI 7-0 | 135 ARI 10-8 | ||
| 36 ARI 6-3 | 86 LAN 10-4 | 136 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 37 LAN 7-0 | 87 LAN 11-3 | 137 ARI 11-6 | ||
| 38 LAN 7-3 | 88 LAN 11-0 | 138 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-4 | 89 ARI 9-2 | 139 LAN 15-1 | ||
| 40 ARI 5-1 | 90 ARI 8-7 | 140 LAN 14-0 | ||
| 41 LAN 8-2 | 91 LAN 12-1 | 141 ARI 11-0 | ||
| 42 LAN 8-1 | 92 ARI 9-5 | 142 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 43 ARI 6-4 | 93 LAN 11-4 | 143 ARI 12-1 | ||
| 44 ARI 6-5 | 94 LAN 12-3 | 144 LAN 15-2 | ||
| 45 ARI 6-2 | 95 ARI 9-1 | 145 LAN 14-3 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-6 | 96 LAN 9-8 | 146 LAN 15-3 | ||
| 47 ARI 4-0 | 97 LAN 12-2 | 147 ARI 12-4 | ||
| 48 LAN 8-3 | 98 LAN 10-5 | 148 ARI 12-5 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-5 | 99 ARI 8-0 | 149 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 50 LAN 8-0 | 100 ARI 10-4 | 150 ARI 10-9 |
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Bonus Question
Tuesday is John Ely Day. Please pick an over or under on each of the five following questions. A guess with all five picks correct will earn you an extra five points in the contest.
An answer might look like…
Over,Under,Under,Over,Under
OR
O,U,U,O,U
1. John Ely walks allowed: 1.5
2. John Ely game whip: 1.15
3. John Ely ground balls allowed: 7.5
4. John Ely total pitches: 100.5
5. John Ely hits allowed: 5.5
Current Leaderboard
1. Michael White 36
2. kinbote 35
3. fritts 29
4. MammothDodger 27
5. Boulder Dodger 16
6t. delias man 4
6t. Phil Gurnee 4
6t. Xeifrank 4
6t. Humma Kavula 4
6t. keithc13 4
11. David Young 2
= Kids Table =
12t. Eric Stephen 1
12t. bucknellbruin 1
12t. underdog
Welcome underdog
1. No talking with your mouth full
2. You must ask permission before leaving the table
3. No horseplay of any kind allowed (eg. black olives on fingertips, loosening salt shaker top, pulling out chair just as ES sits down)
I have a few rolls in my pocket that I’m bringing with me
by Eric Stephen on Jun 1, 2010 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
#22 LAN 6-2
Under, over, over, under, over
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
65.16% !?!?!?!?
Does the simulator mistakenly think balks are contagious?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
haha, it’s just that the simulator is heavily weighted towards FIP. This pitching matchup is the “perfect storm” of good FIP (2.01) vs bad FIP (4.52). Of course Ely’s is heavily regressed. It’s a one size fits all model, back fitted over the 2005-2009 seasons such that the model does the best vs Vegas odds in the past. xFip-wise the two are even this year.
24 LAN 6-5
The Dodgers actually have a 1/1 R/RBI ratio tonight.
Ely: O,U,U,O,O
1. John Ely walks allowed: 1.5
2. John Ely game whip: 1.15
3. John Ely ground balls allowed: 7.5
4. John Ely total pitches: 100.5
5. John Ely hits allowed: 5.5
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#10 ARI 3 -2
1. John Ely walks allowed: 1.5
2. John Ely game whip: 1.15
3. John Ely ground balls allowed: 7.5
4. John Ely total pitches: 100.5
5. John Ely hits allowed: 5.5
O
O
U
U
O
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Bonus Question
1. John Ely walks allowed: 1.5 (2 Over)
2. John Ely game whip: 1.15 (0.93 Under)
3. John Ely ground balls allowed: 7.5 (8 Over)
4. John Ely total pitches: 100.5 (92 Under)
5. John Ely hits allowed: 5.5 (2 Under)
OUOUU
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