FanPost

June 2nd, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ARI LAN E.Jackson vs C.Monasterios LAN 58.68% 55.22%

 

Notes:  I am a little surprised that Vegas is making the Dodgers such large favorites to win Wednesday's game.  Vegas tacks on an extra 3.5% win probability above what the simulator thinks.  Vegas has the over/under right around 8.4 runs while the simulator has it at 8.8 runs.  Get your game score guesses in early as we have a 12:10 AM starting time.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 ARI 1-0   101 ARI 9-8
2 LAN 3-2   52 ARI 8-3   102 ARI 10-1
3 LAN 5-4   53 LAN 5-0   103 LAN 10-9
4 LAN 2-1   54 LAN 8-3   104 LAN 9-0
5 LAN 4-2   55 LAN 8-4   105 ARI 11-2
6 ARI 4-3   56 LAN 7-1   106 LAN 11-4
7 ARI 3-2   57 LAN 8-2   107 LAN 10-7
8 LAN 6-5   58 ARI 8-4   108 LAN 11-3
9 LAN 5-3   59 ARI 8-5   109 ARI 11-4
10 LAN 3-1   60 ARI 8-2   110 ARI 9-0
11 LAN 5-2   61 ARI 5-0   111 LAN 11-5
12 ARI 4-2   62 ARI 8-6   112 ARI 10-7
13 ARI 5-4   63 LAN 8-6   113 ARI 11-5
14 ARI 5-3   64 LAN 6-0   114 LAN 11-6
15 ARI 3-1   65 LAN 9-3   115 ARI 11-6
16 ARI 2-1   66 ARI 8-1   116 LAN 12-3
17 LAN 4-1   67 LAN 8-1   117 ARI 11-1
18 LAN 6-3   68 ARI 6-0   118 ARI 12-2
19 ARI 5-2   69 ARI 8-7   119 ARI 10-0
20 LAN 6-4   70 ARI 9-2   120 ARI 12-3
21 ARI 4-1   71 ARI 9-4   121 LAN 11-1
22 LAN 7-6   72 ARI 9-3   122 LAN 10-8
23 ARI 6-3   73 LAN 9-2   123 LAN 12-2
24 ARI 6-4   74 LAN 9-4   124 LAN 10-0
25 ARI 6-5   75 LAN 9-8   125 LAN 12-4
26 LAN 5-1   76 LAN 9-6   126 ARI 10-8
27 LAN 1-0   77 ARI 9-5   127 ARI 12-4
28 LAN 6-2   78 ARI 9-6   128 LAN 12-1
29 ARI 5-1   79 LAN 7-0   129 ARI 11-7
30 ARI 6-2   80 LAN 9-5   130 LAN 11-7
31 LAN 7-4   81 ARI 9-1   131 ARI 12-5
32 LAN 2-0   82 LAN 10-3   132 ARI 10-9
33 ARI 7-4   83 ARI 7-0   133 LAN 11-8
34 LAN 3-0   84 LAN 10-2   134 ARI 11-8
35 LAN 7-5   85 LAN 9-1   135 ARI 12-6
36 LAN 7-3   86 ARI 10-4   136 LAN 11-0
37 ARI 7-3   87 ARI 10-3   137 LAN 12-5
38 LAN 6-1   88 ARI 8-0   138 ARI 12-1
39 ARI 6-1   89 LAN 9-7   139 LAN 13-3
40 LAN 7-2   90 ARI 10-2   140 LAN 11-9
41 ARI 7-5   91 ARI 9-7   141 ARI 11-0
42 ARI 7-2   92 LAN 10-5   142 LAN 11-10
43 ARI 3-0   93 ARI 10-5   143 LAN 13-4
44 LAN 4-0   94 LAN 10-4   144 LAN 13-5
45 ARI 7-6   95 LAN 8-0   145 LAN 12-6
46 ARI 2-0   96 LAN 10-6   146 ARI 13-2
47 LAN 8-7   97 LAN 10-1   147 LAN 12-7
48 ARI 4-0   98 LAN 11-2   148 ARI 13-4
49 ARI 7-1   99 ARI 11-3   149 ARI 13-3
50 LAN 8-5   100 ARI 10-6   150 LAN 13-1
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