FanPost

June 3rd, Braves vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Braves and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 10:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ATL LAN K.Medlen vs H.Kuroda LAN 57.26% 58.01%

Notes: Vegas and the simulator are in very good agreement as to how heavy the Dodgers should be favored on Thursday. Both teams trail the Padres by one game for best record in the National League. Vegas has the over/under right around 8.1 runs, with the simulator recommending the "under". Get your game score guesses in.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 51 LAN 7-5 101 LAN 11-3
2 LAN 2-1 52 ATL 7-5 102 ATL 9-7
3 LAN 4-3 53 LAN 8-2 103 ATL 11-2
4 ATL 3-2 54 ATL 7-1 104 LAN 9-7
5 LAN 3-1 55 LAN 8-1 105 ATL 11-3
6 ATL 2-1 56 ATL 6-0 106 LAN 12-2
7 LAN 4-2 57 LAN 8-3 107 ATL 10-6
8 LAN 5-4 58 ATL 8-2 108 ATL 11-1
9 LAN 1-0 59 ATL 7-6 109 ATL 11-4
10 ATL 4-3 60 ATL 8-3 110 LAN 12-1
11 LAN 4-1 61 ATL 8-4 111 LAN 11-5
12 ATL 3-1 62 LAN 8-0 112 ATL 9-8
13 ATL 4-2 63 LAN 8-4 113 LAN 11-0
14 LAN 2-0 64 ATL 8-5 114 LAN 11-4
15 LAN 5-2 65 LAN 9-2 115 ATL 10-0
16 LAN 3-0 66 ATL 8-1 116 ATL 10-7
17 LAN 5-3 67 LAN 8-5 117 LAN 12-3
18 ATL 4-1 68 ATL 7-0 118 LAN 10-7
19 ATL 5-3 69 LAN 9-3 119 ATL 11-5
20 LAN 5-1 70 LAN 9-1 120 LAN 10-6
21 ATL 5-2 71 LAN 8-7 121 ATL 12-3
22 ATL 1-0 72 ATL 9-2 122 ATL 12-5
23 ATL 5-4 73 ATL 9-3 123 ATL 11-0
24 ATL 2-0 74 ATL 8-6 124 ATL 11-6
25 LAN 4-0 75 LAN 8-6 125 ATL 12-4
26 LAN 6-5 76 LAN 9-4 126 LAN 11-6
27 ATL 3-0 77 LAN 9-0 127 LAN 12-4
28 LAN 6-3 78 ATL 9-4 128 ATL 12-2
29 LAN 6-2 79 ATL 9-1 129 LAN 13-2
30 ATL 5-1 80 LAN 10-2 130 ATL 11-7
31 LAN 6-1 81 LAN 10-1 131 ATL 13-3
32 LAN 5-0 82 ATL 8-7 132 ATL 13-2
33 LAN 6-4 83 ATL 8-0 133 LAN 10-9
34 ATL 6-3 84 ATL 9-5 134 LAN 13-1
35 ATL 6-4 85 LAN 10-3 135 LAN 10-8
36 ATL 6-2 86 LAN 9-5 136 ATL 10-8
37 ATL 4-0 87 ATL 10-2 137 ATL 12-1
38 ATL 6-5 88 LAN 9-6 138 LAN 12-0
39 LAN 6-0 89 ATL 9-6 139 LAN 12-5
40 ATL 6-1 90 ATL 10-1 140 ATL 10-9
41 LAN 7-2 91 LAN 10-4 141 LAN 13-3
42 LAN 7-1 92 LAN 10-0 142 LAN 13-0
43 LAN 7-4 93 ATL 10-3 143 ATL 13-5
44 ATL 7-2 94 ATL 10-4 144 LAN 14-1
45 LAN 7-3 95 LAN 9-8 145 ATL 13-4
46 ATL 5-0 96 ATL 9-0 146 ATL 13-1
47 LAN 7-6 97 LAN 11-2 147 LAN 13-5
48 ATL 7-3 98 LAN 11-1 148 ATL 12-0
49 ATL 7-4 99 LAN 10-5 149 ATL 11-8
50 LAN 7-0 100 ATL 10-5 150 LAN 11-8

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.