June 27th, Yankees vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jun 27, 2010 1:03 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:45 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| NYA | LAN | A.Pettitte vs C.Kershaw | LAN | 50.74% | 58.18% |
Notes: My guess is that the true probability should lie somewhere in the middle of the vegas and simulator numbers. Pettitte has been very lucky FIP and xFIP wise, while Kershaw has only been lucky xFIP wise. Disclaimer: I have the same lineups from Saturday's game programmed in for Sunday's game. Shouldn't be a huge difference unless one of the top players from either team rests. Get your game score guesses in below. We are still on the 5-3-1 scoring system. The correct team must win to get points and the final score must fall within the Top 150 list. Good luck!
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 2-1 | 51 NYA 7-4 | 101 NYA 9-7 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 LAN 8-1 | 102 NYA 10-5 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 | 53 NYA 6-0 | 103 NYA 11-2 | ||
| 4 LAN 1-0 | 54 NYA 7-5 | 104 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 5 NYA 2-1 | 55 LAN 8-2 | 105 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 6 NYA 3-2 | 56 LAN 8-3 | 106 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 7 LAN 3-1 | 57 LAN 7-5 | 107 NYA 11-1 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-2 | 58 LAN 8-0 | 108 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 9 LAN 2-0 | 59 NYA 7-6 | 109 NYA 10-6 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-1 | 60 NYA 8-3 | 110 NYA 10-0 | ||
| 11 NYA 3-1 | 61 NYA 8-2 | 111 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 12 LAN 3-0 | 62 NYA 8-1 | 112 NYA 11-3 | ||
| 13 LAN 5-4 | 63 NYA 7-0 | 113 NYA 11-4 | ||
| 14 NYA 4-3 | 64 NYA 8-4 | 114 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 15 NYA 4-2 | 65 LAN 9-1 | 115 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 16 NYA 1-0 | 66 LAN 8-4 | 116 NYA 9-8 | ||
| 17 LAN 5-2 | 67 LAN 9-2 | 117 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 18 NYA 4-1 | 68 NYA 8-5 | 118 NYA 12-2 | ||
| 19 NYA 2-0 | 69 LAN 8-5 | 119 NYA 10-7 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-3 | 70 LAN 9-3 | 120 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 21 LAN 4-0 | 71 NYA 9-3 | 121 NYA 11-5 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-1 | 72 LAN 8-7 | 122 NYA 12-3 | ||
| 23 NYA 5-3 | 73 NYA 9-2 | 123 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 24 NYA 5-2 | 74 NYA 8-6 | 124 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 25 NYA 3-0 | 75 LAN 9-0 | 125 NYA 11-0 | ||
| 26 NYA 5-4 | 76 NYA 9-1 | 126 NYA 12-4 | ||
| 27 LAN 5-0 | 77 LAN 9-4 | 127 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 28 LAN 6-5 | 78 LAN 8-6 | 128 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-3 | 79 NYA 9-4 | 129 NYA 12-1 | ||
| 30 NYA 5-1 | 80 LAN 10-1 | 130 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-2 | 81 LAN 10-2 | 131 NYA 12-5 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-1 | 82 NYA 8-0 | 132 NYA 10-8 | ||
| 33 NYA 6-3 | 83 NYA 9-5 | 133 NYA 11-6 | ||
| 34 NYA 6-2 | 84 LAN 10-0 | 134 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-4 | 85 NYA 10-3 | 135 NYA 12-0 | ||
| 36 NYA 4-0 | 86 LAN 9-5 | 136 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-0 | 87 NYA 8-7 | 137 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 38 NYA 6-4 | 88 LAN 11-2 | 138 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-1 | 89 NYA 9-0 | 139 NYA 13-2 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-2 | 90 LAN 10-3 | 140 NYA 13-3 | ||
| 41 NYA 6-1 | 91 NYA 10-2 | 141 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 42 NYA 6-5 | 92 NYA 10-4 | 142 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 43 NYA 5-0 | 93 LAN 9-6 | 143 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-4 | 94 LAN 9-8 | 144 NYA 11-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-3 | 95 NYA 9-6 | 145 NYA 10-9 | ||
| 46 NYA 7-2 | 96 LAN 10-4 | 146 NYA 13-4 | ||
| 47 NYA 7-3 | 97 LAN 11-1 | 147 NYA 13-0 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-6 | 98 NYA 10-1 | 148 LAN 11-10 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-0 | 99 LAN 11-3 | 149 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 50 NYA 7-1 | 100 LAN 9-7 | 150 LAN 14-2 |
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Current Leaderboard
1. kinbote 41
2. Michael White 36
3. MammothDodger 30
4. fritts 29
5. Boulder Dodger 16
6. delias man 14
7t. Phil Gurnee 11
7t. bucknellbruin 11
9. Humma Kavula 10
10t. Xeifrank 8
10t. David Young 8
12t. keithc13 5
12t. DannyDodger 5
14. matthewmafa 3
15. Eric Stephen 2
= Kids Table =
16. underdog 1
16. dolger14 1
The only ones I could think that may rest
are Casey and Manny… but Torre wants to beat his old team, so I think they will play.
Is this your first post back? If so, welcome back :)
I’ll go with #29
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 27, 2010 2:03 AM PDT reply actions
#17
5-2 LAN
Welcome back, Xei! I feel normal again. Getting one of the scores I am positive is not the correct one aout of the way for everyone else.
crap
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Jun 27, 2010 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions
#8 LAN 4-2
And a very respectful welcome back xeifrank!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#74 NYA 8-6 sadly hits
5-3-1 points go to…
5 – matthewmafa #38 NYA 6-4
3 – Humma Kavula #34 NYA 6-2
1 – Xeifrank #33 NYA 6-3
Please feel free to check my work.
not questioning at all
just a question. If no one hits, how is it determined who gets points?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 27, 2010 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions
If nobody hits the correct final score, then points are given to the three people who are closest to the actual score number (while picking the winning team and having the final score fall within the top 150 scores). And by score number, I mean where the final score falls in the top 150 list.
Example:
Final score NYA wins 8-6 with score #74 from the list.
Someone who picked score #73 which is NYA 9-2 would be closer than the person who picked NYA to win by the score of 8-5, which is score #68 on the list.
The top three people closest to the score in the list are awarded 5-3-1 points. If nobody picked the winning team to win, then no points are given out. If the score falls outside of the top 150, then no points are given out. If only one person picked the correct team to win then they get 5 points, nobody else gets anything. If there is a two way tie for first, I will give both people 5 points and the next person(s) 1 point. If two people tie for second place, I will give out 5-3-3. If two people tie for first and two people tie for third, I will give out 5-5-1-1 etc…
Hope it is not too confusing. Before I didn’t do the 5-3-1, only gave one point to the closest. The new system puts a little more oomph in the leaderboard.
ok, thanks
Not complicating, just needed it explained. Thanks Xei
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 27, 2010 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions
A simulator...really...really now...A simulator for baseball...really
I just know I could find so many things wrongs with your logic I don’t even want to begin down that road.
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