FanPost

June 29th, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 12:05 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SF J.Ely vs M.Cain SF 59.18% 53.59%

 

Notes:  Vegas is a little more confident in a Giants win Tuesday than the simulator, as the Vegas crowd believes that Ely's magic has worn off.  Get your game score AND special "John Ely Day" over/under guesses in.  For an extra ten points, get all of the correct five over/under questions correct.

1. Pitches thrown: 92.5

2. Hit allowed: 5.5

3. Strikeouts: 4.5

4. Ely walks allowed minus total number of HRs in the game: 1.5

5. Ely ground balls allowed minus fly balls allowed: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOUOU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 LAN 7-5   101 LAN 11-3
2 SF 2-1   52 LAN 6-0   102 LAN 10-0
3 SF 4-3   53 LAN 8-2   103 LAN 11-4
4 LAN 3-2   54 LAN 8-3   104 SF 11-1
5 LAN 2-1   55 SF 7-5   105 SF 10-5
6 SF 5-4   56 LAN 8-1   106 SF 11-3
7 SF 3-1   57 LAN 7-6   107 LAN 10-6
8 LAN 4-3   58 SF 8-2   108 SF 10-0
9 SF 4-2   59 LAN 8-4   109 SF 11-4
10 SF 1-0   60 LAN 7-0   110 SF 9-7
11 LAN 3-1   61 SF 8-1   111 LAN 9-8
12 LAN 4-2   62 SF 8-3   112 LAN 11-0
13 SF 4-1   63 SF 7-0   113 LAN 11-5
14 SF 2-0   64 SF 8-7   114 LAN 12-2
15 SF 5-2   65 LAN 8-0   115 LAN 10-7
16 LAN 4-1   66 LAN 9-3   116 SF 10-6
17 LAN 5-3   67 LAN 8-5   117 LAN 12-4
18 SF 5-3   68 SF 8-4   118 SF 11-5
19 LAN 5-4   69 SF 8-5   119 SF 11-0
20 SF 3-0   70 LAN 8-6   120 LAN 12-3
21 SF 6-5   71 LAN 9-2   121 LAN 12-1
22 LAN 5-2   72 LAN 9-4   122 LAN 11-6
23 LAN 1-0   73 LAN 9-1   123 SF 10-7
24 LAN 2-0   74 SF 9-3   124 SF 12-3
25 LAN 5-1   75 SF 8-0   125 SF 12-2
26 SF 5-1   76 SF 9-2   126 SF 12-1
27 LAN 3-0   77 SF 9-1   127 LAN 11-7
28 SF 4-0   78 LAN 8-7   128 LAN 12-5
29 LAN 6-2   79 LAN 10-3   129 LAN 13-3
30 SF 6-3   80 LAN 9-5   130 LAN 10-8
31 LAN 6-3   81 LAN 10-2   131 SF 10-9
32 LAN 6-4   82 SF 8-6   132 SF 12-4
33 SF 6-2   83 SF 9-4   133 LAN 13-1
34 LAN 6-1   84 LAN 9-6   134 LAN 12-6
35 LAN 6-5   85 SF 10-2   135 SF 13-1
36 SF 6-4   86 LAN 10-4   136 LAN 10-9
37 LAN 4-0   87 LAN 10-1   137 SF 10-8
38 SF 6-1   88 SF 10-3   138 SF 13-2
39 SF 5-0   89 SF 10-1   139 SF 12-0
40 SF 7-6   90 LAN 9-0   140 SF 11-6
41 LAN 5-0   91 SF 9-0   141 LAN 13-4
42 LAN 7-3   92 SF 9-5   142 LAN 11-8
43 LAN 7-2   93 SF 9-8   143 SF 12-5
44 LAN 7-4   94 LAN 10-5   144 LAN 13-2
45 SF 7-2   95 LAN 11-2   145 LAN 12-7
46 SF 7-4   96 LAN 11-1   146 LAN 12-0
47 LAN 7-1   97 SF 10-4   147 SF 11-10
48 SF 6-0   98 LAN 9-7   148 SF 12-6
49 SF 7-1   99 SF 9-6   149 LAN 13-6
50 SF 7-3   100 SF 11-2   150 SF 11-7
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