FanPost

June 29th, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 12:05 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SF J.Ely vs M.Cain SF 59.18% 53.59%

 

Notes:  Vegas is a little more confident in a Giants win Tuesday than the simulator, as the Vegas crowd believes that Ely's magic has worn off.  Get your game score AND special "John Ely Day" over/under guesses in.  For an extra ten points, get all of the correct five over/under questions correct.

1. Pitches thrown: 92.5

2. Hit allowed: 5.5

3. Strikeouts: 4.5

4. Ely walks allowed minus total number of HRs in the game: 1.5

5. Ely ground balls allowed minus fly balls allowed: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOUOU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 101 LAN 11-3
2 SF 2-1 &nbsp 52 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 102 LAN 10-0
3 SF 4-3 &nbsp 53 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 103 LAN 11-4
4 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 54 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 104 SF 11-1
5 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 55 SF 7-5 &nbsp 105 SF 10-5
6 SF 5-4 &nbsp 56 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 106 SF 11-3
7 SF 3-1 &nbsp 57 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 107 LAN 10-6
8 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 58 SF 8-2 &nbsp 108 SF 10-0
9 SF 4-2 &nbsp 59 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 109 SF 11-4
10 SF 1-0 &nbsp 60 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 110 SF 9-7
11 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 61 SF 8-1 &nbsp 111 LAN 9-8
12 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 62 SF 8-3 &nbsp 112 LAN 11-0
13 SF 4-1 &nbsp 63 SF 7-0 &nbsp 113 LAN 11-5
14 SF 2-0 &nbsp 64 SF 8-7 &nbsp 114 LAN 12-2
15 SF 5-2 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 115 LAN 10-7
16 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 66 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 116 SF 10-6
17 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 67 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 117 LAN 12-4
18 SF 5-3 &nbsp 68 SF 8-4 &nbsp 118 SF 11-5
19 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 69 SF 8-5 &nbsp 119 SF 11-0
20 SF 3-0 &nbsp 70 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 120 LAN 12-3
21 SF 6-5 &nbsp 71 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 121 LAN 12-1
22 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 72 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 122 LAN 11-6
23 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 123 SF 10-7
24 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 74 SF 9-3 &nbsp 124 SF 12-3
25 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 75 SF 8-0 &nbsp 125 SF 12-2
26 SF 5-1 &nbsp 76 SF 9-2 &nbsp 126 SF 12-1
27 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 77 SF 9-1 &nbsp 127 LAN 11-7
28 SF 4-0 &nbsp 78 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 128 LAN 12-5
29 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 79 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 129 LAN 13-3
30 SF 6-3 &nbsp 80 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 130 LAN 10-8
31 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 81 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 131 SF 10-9
32 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 82 SF 8-6 &nbsp 132 SF 12-4
33 SF 6-2 &nbsp 83 SF 9-4 &nbsp 133 LAN 13-1
34 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 134 LAN 12-6
35 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 85 SF 10-2 &nbsp 135 SF 13-1
36 SF 6-4 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 136 LAN 10-9
37 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 87 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 137 SF 10-8
38 SF 6-1 &nbsp 88 SF 10-3 &nbsp 138 SF 13-2
39 SF 5-0 &nbsp 89 SF 10-1 &nbsp 139 SF 12-0
40 SF 7-6 &nbsp 90 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 140 SF 11-6
41 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 91 SF 9-0 &nbsp 141 LAN 13-4
42 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 92 SF 9-5 &nbsp 142 LAN 11-8
43 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 93 SF 9-8 &nbsp 143 SF 12-5
44 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 94 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 144 LAN 13-2
45 SF 7-2 &nbsp 95 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 145 LAN 12-7
46 SF 7-4 &nbsp 96 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 146 LAN 12-0
47 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 97 SF 10-4 &nbsp 147 SF 11-10
48 SF 6-0 &nbsp 98 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 148 SF 12-6
49 SF 7-1 &nbsp 99 SF 9-6 &nbsp 149 LAN 13-6
50 SF 7-3 &nbsp 100 SF 11-2 &nbsp 150 SF 11-7
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker