June 30th, Dodgers vs Giants - Sweepulation
by Xeifrank on Jun 30, 2010 12:24 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:08 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | SF | V.Padilla vs J.Sanchez | SF | 53.70% | 57.70% |
Notes: The simulator is a little less confident in a Dodgers sweep than the good folks in Vegas. Maybe when the smart money wakes up to see the Dodgers "house money" lineup the odds will move more in the Giants favor. Someone else can feel free to update the odds, as all gambling links are blocked at my office for good reason. Opening line has the Giants at -116 on the ML and the simulator has it at -136 for the bad guys. Early 12:45PM start time on Wednesday, so get your guesses in early. Can the LAN 4-2 score come in three times in a row??
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 SF 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-5 | 101 SF 11-3 | ||
| 2 SF 2-1 | 52 SF 7-5 | 102 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 3 SF 4-3 | 53 SF 8-2 | 103 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 4 SF 3-1 | 54 LAN 7-1 | 104 SF 10-5 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-2 | 55 LAN 7-6 | 105 SF 9-7 | ||
| 6 LAN 2-1 | 56 SF 8-1 | 106 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 7 SF 4-2 | 57 SF 8-3 | 107 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 8 SF 5-4 | 58 LAN 8-3 | 108 SF 11-0 | ||
| 9 SF 1-0 | 59 LAN 8-2 | 109 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-3 | 60 LAN 8-4 | 110 SF 10-6 | ||
| 11 SF 4-1 | 61 LAN 8-5 | 111 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 12 LAN 4-2 | 62 LAN 6-0 | 112 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 13 SF 2-0 | 63 SF 8-0 | 113 SF 12-2 | ||
| 14 SF 3-0 | 64 SF 8-4 | 114 SF 11-4 | ||
| 15 LAN 3-1 | 65 LAN 8-1 | 115 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 16 SF 5-2 | 66 SF 8-5 | 116 SF 10-7 | ||
| 17 SF 5-3 | 67 SF 9-2 | 117 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 18 LAN 5-4 | 68 SF 8-7 | 118 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 19 SF 5-1 | 69 SF 9-1 | 119 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-3 | 70 LAN 7-0 | 120 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-2 | 71 SF 9-3 | 121 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 22 SF 4-0 | 72 LAN 9-3 | 122 SF 11-5 | ||
| 23 LAN 4-1 | 73 LAN 8-6 | 123 SF 12-0 | ||
| 24 LAN 1-0 | 74 LAN 8-7 | 124 SF 10-9 | ||
| 25 SF 6-5 | 75 SF 8-6 | 125 SF 12-1 | ||
| 26 LAN 2-0 | 76 SF 9-0 | 126 SF 12-3 | ||
| 27 SF 5-0 | 77 LAN 9-2 | 127 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 28 SF 6-3 | 78 LAN 9-4 | 128 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 29 SF 6-2 | 79 SF 9-4 | 129 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-3 | 80 LAN 9-5 | 130 SF 11-6 | ||
| 31 SF 6-1 | 81 SF 10-2 | 131 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 32 LAN 5-1 | 82 SF 9-5 | 132 SF 13-2 | ||
| 33 SF 6-4 | 83 SF 10-3 | 133 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-4 | 84 LAN 9-1 | 134 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-2 | 85 SF 10-1 | 135 SF 12-4 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-5 | 86 LAN 10-3 | 136 SF 13-1 | ||
| 37 LAN 3-0 | 87 LAN 9-6 | 137 SF 12-5 | ||
| 38 SF 6-0 | 88 LAN 8-0 | 138 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 39 SF 7-2 | 89 LAN 10-4 | 139 SF 10-8 | ||
| 40 SF 7-3 | 90 SF 10-0 | 140 SF 13-3 | ||
| 41 SF 7-1 | 91 SF 9-6 | 141 SF 11-7 | ||
| 42 LAN 6-1 | 92 LAN 10-2 | 142 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-4 | 93 SF 9-8 | 143 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 44 SF 7-6 | 94 SF 10-4 | 144 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 45 LAN 4-0 | 95 LAN 9-0 | 145 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-3 | 96 LAN 10-5 | 146 SF 11-8 | ||
| 47 SF 7-4 | 97 SF 11-2 | 147 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-2 | 98 LAN 11-2 | 148 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 49 SF 7-0 | 99 LAN 10-1 | 149 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 50 LAN 5-0 | 100 SF 11-1 | 150 SF 14-2 |
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nooo
you took my winning score last night.
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Jun 30, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
and your point? :)
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Jun 30, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
In tribute to Broxton #51 LAN 7-5
Boochacky!
"If your Mr. October, I'm Mr. Spring, Summer and Winter!" - Tommy Lasorda to Reggie Jackson
4
Lopez does great against a depleted lineup, Garret Anderson goes 3 for 4, Vicente Padilla pitches good enough to win any other day.
#10 LAN 4-3
"If your Mr. October, I'm Mr. Spring, Summer and Winter!" - Tommy Lasorda to Reggie Jackson
#59 LAN 8-2
Dodgers opponent scores two runs for the third time in a row. We didn’t have a 59 point winner, but today’s 5-3-1 goes to…
+5. Ego Crusher! #51 (8)
3. Boulder Dodgers #45 (14)
+1. lakersdodgersyankees4life #42 (17)
+ Some new blood in the leaderboard
finally on the board!
for a game I didnt see :)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 30, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
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