FanPost

June 4th, Braves vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Braves and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ATL LAN K.Kawakami vs C.Kershaw LAN 58.68% 69.66%

 

Notes:  As was pointed out yesterday, the simulator is the big outlier on today's game as it heavily weights FIP, which Kershaw excels at.  Either way, the Dodgers should have a good chance of evening up the series, something that hopefully the Celtics do not do on Sunday.  Get your game score guesses in (new 5-3-1 scoring format).

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 9-2   101 ATL 10-4
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 9-0   102 ATL 9-7
3 LAN 4-3   53 ATL 4-0   103 LAN 12-3
4 LAN 3-1   54 ATL 7-4   104 ATL 8-0
5 LAN 1-0   55 ATL 6-1   105 ATL 10-3
6 LAN 4-1   56 ATL 7-2   106 ATL 10-2
7 LAN 3-0   57 LAN 8-4   107 ATL 10-1
8 LAN 2-0   58 ATL 7-3   108 ATL 9-8
9 LAN 4-2   59 LAN 9-3   109 LAN 11-5
10 LAN 4-0   60 ATL 7-5   110 LAN 10-6
11 LAN 5-2   61 LAN 10-1   111 LAN 12-4
12 ATL 3-2   62 LAN 8-5   112 LAN 13-0
13 ATL 2-1   63 ATL 5-0   113 ATL 10-6
14 LAN 5-4   64 ATL 7-6   114 LAN 10-7
15 LAN 5-1   65 LAN 8-7   115 LAN 13-3
16 LAN 5-0   66 ATL 7-1   116 ATL 10-5
17 ATL 4-3   67 LAN 10-2   117 LAN 13-2
18 LAN 5-3   68 LAN 10-0   118 ATL 9-0
19 LAN 6-1   69 ATL 6-0   119 LAN 10-9
20 LAN 6-2   70 LAN 9-4   120 LAN 13-1
21 ATL 3-1   71 LAN 10-3   121 ATL 10-7
22 ATL 4-2   72 ATL 8-3   122 ATL 11-4
23 LAN 6-0   73 ATL 8-4   123 ATL 11-2
24 ATL 1-0   74 LAN 8-6   124 ATL 11-3
25 LAN 6-3   75 ATL 8-2   125 LAN 11-6
26 LAN 6-5   76 ATL 8-5   126 LAN 14-1
27 LAN 7-1   77 LAN 11-1   127 LAN 14-0
28 ATL 5-4   78 LAN 11-0   128 LAN 13-4
29 LAN 7-0   79 LAN 10-4   129 LAN 12-5
30 ATL 5-3   80 ATL 8-6   130 ATL 11-5
31 ATL 4-1   81 LAN 9-5   131 ATL 10-0
32 ATL 2-0   82 LAN 11-2   132 LAN 10-8
33 ATL 5-2   83 ATL 8-1   133 ATL 10-8
34 LAN 6-4   84 ATL 8-7   134 ATL 11-1
35 LAN 7-2   85 LAN 11-3   135 LAN 14-2
36 LAN 7-3   86 ATL 9-3   136 ATL 11-6
37 LAN 8-1   87 ATL 7-0   137 LAN 12-6
38 LAN 8-2   88 LAN 9-6   138 ATL 11-7
39 LAN 7-4   89 ATL 9-4   139 LAN 14-3
40 LAN 8-0   90 ATL 9-5   140 LAN 12-7
41 ATL 6-3   91 ATL 9-2   141 LAN 11-8
42 ATL 3-0   92 LAN 12-1   142 ATL 12-4
43 ATL 6-4   93 LAN 12-0   143 LAN 11-7
44 ATL 6-5   94 LAN 12-2   144 ATL 12-3
45 ATL 5-1   95 LAN 11-4   145 ATL 10-9
46 ATL 6-2   96 LAN 10-5   146 LAN 15-0
47 LAN 7-6   97 ATL 9-6   147 LAN 15-1
48 LAN 8-3   98 LAN 9-8   148 ATL 12-2
49 LAN 9-1   99 ATL 9-1   149 LAN 13-5
50 LAN 7-5   100 LAN 9-7   150 LAN 15-3
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