Should John Ely Skip a Start This Season?
by David Young on Jun 5, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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PrintIn a recent fanpost here, The Newbster raised a question regarding John Ely and his work load, specifically, should we be concerned about the number of innings John Ely pitches this season? After all, at barely 24, Ely, while not as youthful as Clayton Kershaw, is still would most baseball observers would term a young pitcher, and theories abound as to how to manage the workload of young pitchers.
Using statistics from baseball-reference.com and thebaseballcube.com, I gathered the innings pitched numbers for Ely from his college days to the present. I used those numbers to create the graph below. Additionally, I projected his remaining workload for 2010. Assuming he stays in the rotation for the remainder of the season, he should make 21 more starts. For my projection, I assumed an average of 5 2/3 IP per start, but your mileage may vary. Fortuitously, 21 is a multiple of 3, so if you think Ely will average 6.0 IP per start, you can just add 7 to the numbers you see below.
Is this potential increase in innings pitched worth worrying about? Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has used a 30 IP increase as a rule of thumb to make fairly accurate predictions about young pitchers (25 and under) who are susceptible to injury the next season. Whether or not 30 IP is the right number, it is generally acknowledged to be in the ballpark. My projection takes Ely very close to that 30 IP before even considering post-season play, and an average of 6.0 IP per start would take him over than threshold.
As a team that expects to contend for post-season play, it may be in the Dodgers and Ely's long-term interest to consider if a skipped start or some other innings limiting measure might be the right course of action. It's a tough call because a team like the Dodgers also actually needs to win ball games to even make the playoffs, and skipping an Ely start for, say, Charlie Haeger might not help to serve the goal of winning.
At this point I would guess that if Ely remains effective and at a projection similar to what I show above, the Dodger won't do anything pre-planned to limit his innings, because his work load won't increase enough over the 30 IP threshold for a playoff-contending team to worry about it.
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Good take
I’m inclined to agree. Assuming the Dodgers stay in a competitive race for a playoff spot (as opposed to last year where the only question was seeding for the playoffs) it will be tough to sit Ely. Considering it doesn’t seem particularly necessary considering his workload in the minors, I expect Ely will not be rested for the sake of being rested.
Roger that
This was going to be the jist of my post. He will probably receive rest just to be receiving rest.
Awesome!
It’s good to know that he should stay at the same pace — he seems to be handling it admirably.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
Hopefully we will lock up the division and home field advantage early enough
So he can take a start off at the end of the year before the playoffs.
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
draft stuff
I really like cameron bedrosian. he reminds me of billingsley or a bonderman type. first round might be too high but if he’s there with our 2nd pick, I’d snag him. Obviously, great bloodlines, very good present day stuff and the kid is built like billingsley; muscular, compact wiith a thick mid and lower body.
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/09/09/bedrosian-first-look/
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=8080130&content_id=7222477
It's because he's 6'0
Every shortish right handed pitcher is pegged as a reliever. He’s a starter for me with his current 2 plus offerings.
1st- AJ COLE :) :) :)
2nd- Camster
Since baseball draftees are generally 3-5 years from the majors, do teams generally draft the best player available, without worrying about filling specific needs?
People don't think it be like this, but it do.
essentially, yes.
but other variables come into play like signability and sometimes draft strategy.
With the high attrition rate of draft prospects and the distance away from impacting the major league team, the only thing you can do is draft who you believe is the best player and sort out positional jams when (if ever) they do arise.
Good stuff Dave
I was thinking about the pre-Padilla rotation yesterday, and the more I think about it, I’m not sure the fifth spot gets skipped with the upcoming off days. From Torre’s quotes the last few days, it sounds like both (a) Monasterios will start Monday; and (b) Haeger will get another shot at starting before they decide what to do with him.
I am assuming Monasterios’ blisters will be fine by Monday, and Padilla could be ready in a couple of weeks. All of this could change of course, but here’s what we have:
today – Bills
Sun – Ely
Mon (StL) – Monk
Tue (StL) – Kuroda
Wed (Stl) – Kershaw
Thu – OFF
Fri (Ana) – Bills
6/12 (Ana) – Ely
6/13 (Ana) – Haeger
6/14 – OFF
6/15 (Cin) - Kuroda
6/16 (Cin) – Kershaw
6/17 (Cin) - Bills
6/18 (Bos) – Ely
6/19 (Bos) - Padilla
6/20 (Bos) – Kuroda
6/21 – OFF
Now, I don’t know if they will give Kershaw & Kuroda six days rest, and five days rest for Bills & Ely, but it could be an option.
Could happen
Either Monk doesn’t start Monday because of the blisters, or aggravates the blisters in Monday’s start; then Sherrill comes back Tuesday and Monk hits the DL.
Also
I meant to flip/flop Padilla and Ely, for another extra day of rest for Ely. Padilla is on track to start on June 18, not 19th
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe when padilla comes back, they can give Ely an occasional day off, if Monasterios is still around and not used every day but as a long man. Or if they want to give Haeger a go instead of Ely. Of course, someone will have to go, so not all those choices may be available.
Yeah, if everyone is healthy when Padilla comes back the days of Haeger and Monasterios starting are over.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Casey Blake
update from Tony Jackson’s game story:
The result of the MRI exam on Dodgers third baseman Blake’s lower back showed nothing more than irritation. Blake probably won’t return to the lineup until at least Sunday
Thought this was awesome
Kershaw has been death on lefties this year: .186/.296/.329 (.289 BABIP).
But he has been equally good against RHB: .213/.336/.282 (.285 BABIP)
Low?
That .336 against RHB is above the NL overall league OBP of .329 and the NL overall OBP for RHB vs. LHP of .334. This is where the walks are hurting him.
The BA and Slg are definitely well below the league averages.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
when I meant low
I meant in comparison with my initial thoughts without looking at the numbers….
IT’S SATURDAY WHAT DO YOU WANT FROM ME
Heh
Which reminds me – I am supposed to do yard work now!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
THE HIPPEST LIFE OF ALL
See, Nate is only 2/7 awake. It’s science.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
Part of it is luck
Only 1.8% of his flyballs against RHB have been HR (he has allowed one HR in 224 PA). His x-FIP vs RHB is 4.72.
BUT, he has also induced a load of infield popups to righties (19.6% of flyballs; league average is somewhere around 9-10%)
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
From the LA Times report by Jim Peltz of the game last night (last paragraphs), it appears that Vin spoke to the crowd on the big screen, not just to Prime Ticket viewers, when he spoke about Wooden. It explains why he began something like “Sorry to interrupt the game…”.
Yeah
During the Wooden retrospective after the game, they showed Vin’s tribute again, and then showed the fans at Dodger Stadium giving a standing ovation.
Even Mattingly from the dugout was applauding; it was very cool
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Both Coach Wooden and Vin Scully
are so dignified. These are the real men among us, the Coach in spirit only now, of course.
I expect some tribute from the Lakers on Sunday, given that this is LA, plus the strong connection between the two in basketball. From Goodrich, Kareem, etc. up to Farmar today.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
That will be awesome.
I’m glad Prime Ticket is replaying that on Monday. Thanks for the heads up.
Every time I want to hate T.J. Simers, it’s events like the Scully/Wooden and Torre/Koufax that give me pause.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Not that Simers could ever be mistaken for dignified himself. But he does recognize it in others. That’s why it surprised me a bit when spoke in his mocking, challenging tone to Koufax (calling him plain “Koufax” to his face, for starters), even though of course it was entirely tongue in cheek, which Koufax understood. Still, it was always “Coach Wooden” in the previous year’s event.
John Wooden and Vin Scully conversation to be rebroadcast for the first time, Monday night on Prime Ticket
I put this in a FanPost on the front page as a bigger reminder.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
In case you haven't seen it
UCLA has a clip of Vin Scully introducing John Wooden. Judging from how Vin winds it up, this is shortly before the conversation to be rebroadcast Monday.
Hall of Fame Broadcaster Vin Scully shares an anecdote on how he met legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden. Scully spoke at a ceremony for the unveiling of a commemorative plaque for John Wooden in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Court of Honor.Tip to Eric for retweeting this from Beto Duran last night.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The one in Spanish?
I can ask if they’re going to do anything.
They say to never hit a man with a closed fist. But it is, on occasion, hilarious.
I'd be mad as an Angels' fan today
Angels/Mariners is at 1pm, but not on Fox. The broadcast will be on tape at 4pm on Fox Sports West.
I’m confused. Shouldnt we be talking about increasing John Ely’s workload, because, well, he’s freaking John Ely.
by UCLADodger32 on Jun 5, 2010 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Rec'd
In SovEly Russia, worload increases you
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Totally off topic
but this looks like a fun little prank.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I always knew we should have locked up those carts when I worked at Smart & Final in college.
by Eric Stephen on Jun 5, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Baseball is funny and/or cruel sometimes
From the St Louis Post-Dispatch, about Jaime Garcia:
Jaime Garcia was too old to play baseball for Sharyland High School in Mission, Tex., so he sat out the 2005 season even though he was still enrolled. The Baltimore Orioles held his professional rights, having chosen him in the 30th round of the 2004 draft, but Garcia did not want to sign with them.
"Back then, everyone they drafted had to take a test, and because he took the test and didn’t do well on it, they didn’t let me sign him," said Joe Almaraz, then an Orioles scout. "But it wasn’t that he didn’t do well on the test. The problem was that when they translated the test into Spanish for him, it was misinterpreted. I read the whole thing myself."
I would like to see that test.
Watching Prime 9 right now
about closers, and they are on Dan Quisenberry. They showed a clip of Dick Howser coming to the mound to make a pitching change to bring in Quis, and not only did Howser use his right arm to indicate the pitcher he wanted, but also did an underhand pitching motion, just to be sure. Awesome.
Ethier Bobblehead
If anyone is near San Bernardino tonight, the 66ers are giving away Andre Ethier bobbleheads to the first 1,500 fans. The game is at 7:05.
The Marlins are said to be promoting Stanton (21 HR!!!) on Tuesday. I guess that means the end of Maybin on the big league team.
LF: Coghlan
CF: Ross
RF: Stanton
Pretty formidable.
Hoe crazy would it have been if both went to college. Obviously the chances of that were like 0, but it still would have been nuts.
by UCLADodger32 on Jun 5, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Anyone with ESPN Insider tell us who Keith Law predicts the Dodgers draft?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Drew Vettleson, OF, Central Kitsap High School, Silverdale (Wash.)
The Dodgers do have a history of taking two-way players in the first round under Logan White and Tim Hallgren, including Ethan Martin and James Loney
Thanks! Hadn't heard of him, did a little research
Here’s a Q&A with Vettleson from this year.
And a scouting report on him from MLB.Com
Sound s like a White type of player. Not sure his ceiling is high enough at pitcher or as outfielder for me to get too excited about but sounds bery intriguing.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
He also can switch pitch!
Kevin Levine-Flandrup: Lets just cut right to the chase, and I know you’re probably sick of the questions, but tell me about the switch-pitching.
Drew Vettleson: My mom is left-handed and my dad is right-handed, and they’re always playing slow-pitch, so when I was younger I’d pick up the glove of whichever one I was with and start throwing with that arm. It kind of stuck, which ended up being pretty cool because I’m one of the only ones around that was able to do it. Then I heard about Pat Venditte, and he actually gave me a call a couple of months ago, and we talked about it, so that was pretty cool.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
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