June 6th, Braves vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jun 6, 2010 1:13 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Braves and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:15 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| ATL | LAN | T.Hudson vs J.Ely | LAN | 52.38% | 64.42% |
Notes: Dodgers in need of a win in order to eek out a split of the four game set. Just like Friday, the simulator is the outlier as it is heavily weighting FIP, plus the hordes of people outside of the LA area still have not caught wind of Ely-Mania. Let's hope John Ely can wake them up. Chances are they will be too busy preparing for another Lakers victory against the Celtics. Get your game score guesses in and since this is John Ely Day, don't forget to answer today's bonus question (see below for details). 5-3-1 still in effect for game scores.
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 2-1 | 51 ATL 5-0 | 101 ATL 9-6 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 ATL 7-3 | 102 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 | 53 LAN 7-5 | 103 ATL 9-0 | ||
| 4 LAN 1-0 | 54 LAN 9-1 | 104 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-1 | 55 LAN 9-2 | 105 ATL 10-4 | ||
| 6 ATL 2-1 | 56 ATL 7-4 | 106 ATL 10-1 | ||
| 7 ATL 3-2 | 57 ATL 7-2 | 107 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-1 | 58 LAN 8-4 | 108 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 LAN 9-0 | 109 ATL 9-7 | ||
| 10 LAN 2-0 | 60 ATL 6-0 | 110 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 11 LAN 3-0 | 61 ATL 7-1 | 111 ATL 10-5 | ||
| 12 LAN 5-4 | 62 ATL 7-5 | 112 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 13 LAN 5-2 | 63 ATL 7-6 | 113 ATL 10-6 | ||
| 14 ATL 4-3 | 64 LAN 9-3 | 114 ATL 11-4 | ||
| 15 ATL 3-1 | 65 ATL 8-2 | 115 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 16 LAN 4-0 | 66 LAN 10-1 | 116 ATL 11-2 | ||
| 17 LAN 5-1 | 67 LAN 8-5 | 117 ATL 11-3 | ||
| 18 ATL 1-0 | 68 ATL 8-3 | 118 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 19 ATL 4-2 | 69 ATL 8-4 | 119 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-3 | 70 LAN 10-2 | 120 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-0 | 71 LAN 9-4 | 121 ATL 9-8 | ||
| 22 ATL 2-0 | 72 ATL 8-1 | 122 ATL 10-0 | ||
| 23 ATL 4-1 | 73 ATL 7-0 | 123 ATL 10-7 | ||
| 24 LAN 6-1 | 74 LAN 10-0 | 124 ATL 11-1 | ||
| 25 LAN 6-3 | 75 LAN 10-3 | 125 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 26 LAN 6-2 | 76 LAN 8-7 | 126 LAN 14-3 | ||
| 27 ATL 5-4 | 77 ATL 8-5 | 127 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 28 ATL 3-0 | 78 LAN 8-6 | 128 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 29 ATL 5-3 | 79 ATL 8-6 | 129 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-0 | 80 ATL 9-3 | 130 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-5 | 81 LAN 11-1 | 131 ATL 12-2 | ||
| 32 ATL 5-2 | 82 ATL 9-2 | 132 ATL 11-5 | ||
| 33 LAN 7-1 | 83 LAN 9-5 | 133 ATL 11-6 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-4 | 84 LAN 10-4 | 134 ATL 10-8 | ||
| 35 LAN 7-2 | 85 ATL 9-1 | 135 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 36 ATL 5-1 | 86 LAN 11-2 | 136 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 37 ATL 6-3 | 87 ATL 8-0 | 137 LAN 14-2 | ||
| 38 LAN 7-0 | 88 ATL 8-7 | 138 ATL 12-4 | ||
| 39 ATL 4-0 | 89 LAN 9-6 | 139 ATL 12-5 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-3 | 90 LAN 11-0 | 140 ATL 12-3 | ||
| 41 ATL 6-4 | 91 ATL 9-5 | 141 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 42 ATL 6-2 | 92 LAN 11-3 | 142 LAN 14-0 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-4 | 93 ATL 9-4 | 143 ATL 11-0 | ||
| 44 LAN 8-1 | 94 LAN 11-4 | 144 LAN 15-1 | ||
| 45 ATL 6-5 | 95 LAN 10-5 | 145 ATL 12-1 | ||
| 46 ATL 6-1 | 96 LAN 9-8 | 146 ATL 11-7 | ||
| 47 LAN 8-2 | 97 ATL 10-2 | 147 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 48 LAN 8-0 | 98 ATL 10-3 | 148 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 49 LAN 8-3 | 99 LAN 12-2 | 149 LAN 15-0 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-6 | 100 LAN 12-1 | 150 ATL 10-9 |
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Bonus Question(s)
5 points to anyone who guesses correctly the over/under on the following five game performances for John Ely.
1. Innings pitched 6-1/2
2. Ely strikeouts minus Braves total runs: 1.5
3. Ely walks minus total number of homeruns combined for both teams: 0.5
4. Batters faced through first three innings: 12.5
5. Earned runs allowed: 2.5
Answer will look something like
OUOUO
or
Over,Under,Over,Under,Over
Current Leaderboard
1. kinbote 38
2. Michael White 36
3. MammothDodger 30
4. fritts 29
5. Boulder Dodger 16
6. Phil Gurnee 11
7. Humma Kavula 10
8. Xeifrank 8
9. David Young 7
10t. delias man 4
10t. keithc13 4
12. Eric Stephen 2
= Kids Table =
13t. bucknellbruin 1
13t. underdog 1
#42 ATL 6 - 2
Offense is AWOL, not going to find it against Hudson. Trouble in River City
I started to answer XEI’s questions but then my brain started hurting on a Sunday Morning.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Results
LAN 5-4, No. 12 hits. Nobody had it. Popcorn points go to.
5pts bucknellbruin #13
3pts kinbote #10
1pts David Young #9
Bonus Question
UUUOO
Nobody got it.
Please feel free to double check my math
Leaving the kids table...nice...
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Jun 6, 2010 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions
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