FanPost

June 9th, Cardinals vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cardinals and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
STL LAN A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw LAN 52.61% 52.41%

 

Notes:  Vegas and the simulator are in near perfect agreement as to how slightly the Dodgers are favored to win this game.  Both vegas and the simulator are in perfect agreement on the over/under also.  Both have the over/under at 6.54 runs.  Look for another game to be decided in the 8th inning or on.  Get your game score guesses in.  Just a reminder that this will be the last simulation for just over two weeks as the simulator will be outsourced to a Chinese factory using unsavory child labor practices.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 STL 8-2   101 STL 11-4
2 LAN 3-2   52 LAN 7-6   102 STL 9-7
3 LAN 1-0   53 LAN 7-3   103 STL 11-0
4 STL 2-1   54 LAN 7-0   104 LAN 11-2
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 7-4   105 LAN 9-7
6 STL 3-2   56 STL 8-3   106 STL 12-1
7 LAN 2-0   57 STL 7-5   107 STL 12-2
8 LAN 3-1   58 STL 8-4   108 STL 12-3
9 STL 3-1   59 LAN 7-5   109 LAN 11-0
10 STL 1-0   60 STL 8-0   110 STL 11-5
11 LAN 4-2   61 LAN 8-1   111 STL 10-6
12 STL 2-0   62 LAN 8-2   112 LAN 10-4
13 STL 4-3   63 STL 7-6   113 LAN 11-1
14 STL 4-2   64 STL 9-2   114 LAN 11-3
15 LAN 3-0   65 LAN 8-3   115 LAN 11-4
16 LAN 4-1   66 STL 9-1   116 STL 12-4
17 STL 4-1   67 STL 9-3   117 LAN 10-5
18 LAN 5-4   68 LAN 8-0   118 STL 12-0
19 STL 3-0   69 STL 8-5   119 STL 9-8
20 STL 5-2   70 LAN 8-4   120 STL 11-6
21 LAN 5-2   71 LAN 9-1   121 LAN 12-1
22 LAN 4-0   72 STL 9-0   122 STL 13-1
23 STL 5-3   73 LAN 8-7   123 LAN 10-6
24 LAN 5-3   74 LAN 9-2   124 LAN 12-3
25 LAN 5-1   75 LAN 8-5   125 LAN 12-0
26 STL 5-1   76 STL 9-4   126 STL 13-2
27 STL 4-0   77 STL 8-6   127 STL 13-3
28 STL 5-4   78 STL 10-1   128 STL 13-4
29 STL 6-1   79 STL 10-2   129 STL 10-7
30 LAN 6-5   80 STL 10-3   130 LAN 10-7
31 STL 6-2   81 STL 9-5   131 LAN 11-6
32 STL 6-3   82 LAN 9-3   132 LAN 11-5
33 LAN 5-0   83 LAN 9-0   133 LAN 10-9
34 STL 5-0   84 STL 10-0   134 LAN 12-4
35 LAN 6-3   85 STL 10-4   135 LAN 12-2
36 LAN 6-2   86 STL 11-2   136 STL 12-5
37 LAN 6-1   87 LAN 9-4   137 STL 10-8
38 STL 6-4   88 LAN 8-6   138 LAN 13-2
39 STL 7-2   89 STL 8-7   139 STL 11-7
40 STL 6-0   90 STL 11-1   140 LAN 13-3
41 LAN 6-4   91 LAN 10-0   141 LAN 13-1
42 STL 7-1   92 STL 9-6   142 STL 10-9
43 STL 6-5   93 LAN 9-5   143 LAN 13-0
44 LAN 6-0   94 LAN 10-1   144 LAN 12-5
45 STL 7-3   95 STL 10-5   145 STL 14-3
46 STL 7-4   96 STL 11-3   146 LAN 10-8
47 STL 7-0   97 LAN 10-2   147 STL 13-0
48 LAN 7-1   98 LAN 9-6   148 STL 13-5
49 LAN 7-2   99 LAN 9-8   149 STL 14-1
50 STL 8-1   100 LAN 10-3   150 STL 14-2
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