FanPost

July 11th, Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cubs and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 CHN LAN C.Silva vs V.Padilla LAN 58.33% 50.66%

 

Notes:   So much for the Dodgers catching the Padres by the All-Star break.  The Rockies can, but the Dodgers will have a taste of third place when the All-Star break arrives.  Vegas has the Dodgers as a solid favorite, but the simulator has the game as a toss up.  Let's hope Vegas is correct on this one.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  Tonight's game is a late game, broadcast on ESPN.  More stage fright for the Dodgers?

Over/Under Questions:

1. V.Padilla number of strikeouts: 6.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 106.5
3. C.Silva walks allowed: 1.5
4. Dodgers hits plus runs: 12.5
5. Dodgers number of men LOB: 7.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 CHN 8-2   101 LAN 9-7
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 6-0   102 CHN 10-5
3 LAN 4-3   53 CHN 8-1   103 LAN 10-5
4 CHN 3-2   54 CHN 7-0   104 CHN 11-3
5 CHN 2-1   55 CHN 8-3   105 CHN 10-6
6 CHN 3-1   56 CHN 7-5   106 CHN 9-7
7 LAN 1-0   57 LAN 7-5   107 CHN 11-0
8 LAN 3-1   58 LAN 8-1   108 CHN 11-4
9 CHN 4-3   59 CHN 8-0   109 LAN 11-4
10 CHN 4-2   60 CHN 8-4   110 LAN 11-1
11 LAN 4-2   61 LAN 7-0   111 LAN 11-3
12 CHN 1-0   62 LAN 8-2   112 CHN 12-1
13 LAN 5-4   63 CHN 9-2   113 CHN 12-2
14 CHN 2-0   64 CHN 7-6   114 CHN 9-8
15 LAN 2-0   65 LAN 8-3   115 LAN 10-6
16 CHN 4-1   66 LAN 8-4   116 LAN 12-1
17 LAN 4-1   67 CHN 9-3   117 LAN 12-3
18 CHN 3-0   68 CHN 9-1   118 LAN 11-5
19 CHN 5-2   69 CHN 8-5   119 CHN 10-7
20 CHN 5-3   70 LAN 8-5   120 CHN 11-6
21 LAN 5-2   71 LAN 9-3   121 CHN 12-4
22 LAN 3-0   72 LAN 8-0   122 LAN 12-2
23 LAN 5-3   73 LAN 9-2   123 CHN 11-5
24 CHN 5-1   74 CHN 8-6   124 LAN 10-9
25 CHN 5-4   75 LAN 8-7   125 CHN 12-0
26 CHN 4-0   76 LAN 9-1   126 CHN 12-3
27 LAN 5-1   77 CHN 9-4   127 LAN 10-7
28 CHN 6-2   78 CHN 9-0   128 CHN 13-2
29 LAN 6-5   79 CHN 10-2   129 CHN 13-1
30 CHN 6-3   80 LAN 8-6   130 LAN 12-4
31 CHN 6-1   81 CHN 10-3   131 LAN 10-8
32 CHN 5-0   82 CHN 10-1   132 LAN 12-5
33 LAN 4-0   83 CHN 8-7   133 CHN 12-5
34 LAN 6-3   84 CHN 9-5   134 LAN 13-3
35 CHN 6-4   85 LAN 9-4   135 LAN 13-1
36 LAN 6-2   86 LAN 9-0   136 LAN 13-4
37 LAN 6-4   87 LAN 10-2   137 LAN 11-0
38 LAN 6-1   88 LAN 10-3   138 CHN 13-4
39 CHN 7-2   89 CHN 11-1   139 CHN 10-8
40 CHN 7-1   90 LAN 9-5   140 LAN 13-2
41 CHN 6-0   91 CHN 10-0   141 CHN 13-3
42 CHN 6-5   92 CHN 10-4   142 CHN 11-7
43 LAN 5-0   93 LAN 10-1   143 CHN 12-6
44 CHN 7-3   94 CHN 9-6   144 CHN 10-9
45 LAN 7-6   95 CHN 11-2   145 LAN 14-3
46 CHN 7-4   96 LAN 10-4   146 LAN 12-6
47 LAN 7-2   97 LAN 9-6   147 CHN 14-2
48 LAN 7-3   98 LAN 9-8   148 CHN 13-0
49 LAN 7-1   99 LAN 11-2   149 LAN 11-6
50 LAN 7-4   100 LAN 10-0   150 LAN 12-0
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