FanPost

July 11th, Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cubs and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 CHN LAN C.Silva vs V.Padilla LAN 58.33% 50.66%

 

Notes:   So much for the Dodgers catching the Padres by the All-Star break.  The Rockies can, but the Dodgers will have a taste of third place when the All-Star break arrives.  Vegas has the Dodgers as a solid favorite, but the simulator has the game as a toss up.  Let's hope Vegas is correct on this one.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  Tonight's game is a late game, broadcast on ESPN.  More stage fright for the Dodgers?

Over/Under Questions:

1. V.Padilla number of strikeouts: 6.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 106.5
3. C.Silva walks allowed: 1.5
4. Dodgers hits plus runs: 12.5
5. Dodgers number of men LOB: 7.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 51 CHN 8-2 &nbsp 101 LAN 9-7
2 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 52 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 102 CHN 10-5
3 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 53 CHN 8-1 &nbsp 103 LAN 10-5
4 CHN 3-2 &nbsp 54 CHN 7-0 &nbsp 104 CHN 11-3
5 CHN 2-1 &nbsp 55 CHN 8-3 &nbsp 105 CHN 10-6
6 CHN 3-1 &nbsp 56 CHN 7-5 &nbsp 106 CHN 9-7
7 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 57 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 107 CHN 11-0
8 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 108 CHN 11-4
9 CHN 4-3 &nbsp 59 CHN 8-0 &nbsp 109 LAN 11-4
10 CHN 4-2 &nbsp 60 CHN 8-4 &nbsp 110 LAN 11-1
11 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 61 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 111 LAN 11-3
12 CHN 1-0 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 112 CHN 12-1
13 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 63 CHN 9-2 &nbsp 113 CHN 12-2
14 CHN 2-0 &nbsp 64 CHN 7-6 &nbsp 114 CHN 9-8
15 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 115 LAN 10-6
16 CHN 4-1 &nbsp 66 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 116 LAN 12-1
17 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 67 CHN 9-3 &nbsp 117 LAN 12-3
18 CHN 3-0 &nbsp 68 CHN 9-1 &nbsp 118 LAN 11-5
19 CHN 5-2 &nbsp 69 CHN 8-5 &nbsp 119 CHN 10-7
20 CHN 5-3 &nbsp 70 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 120 CHN 11-6
21 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 71 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 121 CHN 12-4
22 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 72 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 122 LAN 12-2
23 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 123 CHN 11-5
24 CHN 5-1 &nbsp 74 CHN 8-6 &nbsp 124 LAN 10-9
25 CHN 5-4 &nbsp 75 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 125 CHN 12-0
26 CHN 4-0 &nbsp 76 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 126 CHN 12-3
27 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 77 CHN 9-4 &nbsp 127 LAN 10-7
28 CHN 6-2 &nbsp 78 CHN 9-0 &nbsp 128 CHN 13-2
29 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 79 CHN 10-2 &nbsp 129 CHN 13-1
30 CHN 6-3 &nbsp 80 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 130 LAN 12-4
31 CHN 6-1 &nbsp 81 CHN 10-3 &nbsp 131 LAN 10-8
32 CHN 5-0 &nbsp 82 CHN 10-1 &nbsp 132 LAN 12-5
33 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 83 CHN 8-7 &nbsp 133 CHN 12-5
34 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 84 CHN 9-5 &nbsp 134 LAN 13-3
35 CHN 6-4 &nbsp 85 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 135 LAN 13-1
36 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 86 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 136 LAN 13-4
37 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 87 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 137 LAN 11-0
38 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 88 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 138 CHN 13-4
39 CHN 7-2 &nbsp 89 CHN 11-1 &nbsp 139 CHN 10-8
40 CHN 7-1 &nbsp 90 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 140 LAN 13-2
41 CHN 6-0 &nbsp 91 CHN 10-0 &nbsp 141 CHN 13-3
42 CHN 6-5 &nbsp 92 CHN 10-4 &nbsp 142 CHN 11-7
43 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 93 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 143 CHN 12-6
44 CHN 7-3 &nbsp 94 CHN 9-6 &nbsp 144 CHN 10-9
45 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 95 CHN 11-2 &nbsp 145 LAN 14-3
46 CHN 7-4 &nbsp 96 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 146 LAN 12-6
47 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 97 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 147 CHN 14-2
48 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 98 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 148 CHN 13-0
49 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 99 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 149 LAN 11-6
50 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 100 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 150 LAN 12-0
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