FanPost

July 15th, Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cardinals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN STL C.Kershaw vs C.Carpenter STL 54.34% 51.48%

 

Notes:   The Dodgers begin their post All-Star break schedule with a tough four game spin through the Mound City.  It is going to be a hot, muggy and showery series.  In the first game the Dodgers will face Chris Carpenter.  Vegas has the Cardinals as a very slight favorite, while the simulator also favors the Cardinals but with a little less confidence.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. C.Kershaw strikeouts minus walks: 4.5
2. A.Pujols total bases: 3.5
3. C.Carpenter pitches thrown: 108.5
4. Cardinals total number of pitchers used: 2.5
5. Dodgers total hits plus Cardinals total hits: 15.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 STL 2-1   51 STL 7-0   101 STL 9-7
2 STL 3-2   52 LAN 7-0   102 LAN 10-5
3 LAN 2-1   53 STL 7-4   103 LAN 9-7
4 STL 1-0   54 LAN 8-2   104 STL 11-3
5 LAN 3-2   55 LAN 8-1   105 STL 11-0
6 LAN 1-0   56 LAN 7-5   106 STL 10-5
7 STL 4-3   57 STL 8-1   107 LAN 11-2
8 LAN 3-1   58 STL 8-2   108 LAN 11-3
9 LAN 2-0   59 LAN 8-3   109 STL 12-2
10 STL 3-1   60 STL 7-5   110 STL 12-1
11 STL 2-0   61 LAN 7-6   111 LAN 9-8
12 LAN 4-3   62 STL 8-3   112 STL 11-4
13 LAN 4-2   63 STL 8-0   113 LAN 10-6
14 LAN 4-1   64 LAN 8-0   114 LAN 11-0
15 STL 4-2   65 LAN 8-4   115 STL 12-3
16 LAN 3-0   66 STL 9-2   116 LAN 11-4
17 STL 5-4   67 STL 8-4   117 LAN 12-2
18 STL 4-1   68 LAN 9-1   118 STL 12-4
19 STL 3-0   69 LAN 8-5   119 STL 10-7
20 LAN 5-2   70 STL 9-1   120 STL 12-0
21 LAN 4-0   71 LAN 9-2   121 LAN 10-7
22 STL 5-2   72 STL 9-0   122 STL 11-5
23 LAN 5-3   73 STL 8-7   123 LAN 12-3
24 STL 5-3   74 STL 8-5   124 STL 10-6
25 STL 4-0   75 STL 9-3   125 LAN 12-1
26 LAN 5-4   76 LAN 8-6   126 STL 13-1
27 LAN 5-1   77 STL 10-2   127 STL 12-5
28 STL 5-1   78 LAN 9-3   128 STL 13-0
29 LAN 5-0   79 LAN 9-4   129 LAN 11-6
30 STL 6-5   80 STL 9-4   130 STL 13-2
31 LAN 6-3   81 STL 10-3   131 LAN 12-0
32 LAN 6-1   82 LAN 9-0   132 LAN 11-5
33 STL 5-0   83 STL 10-1   133 STL 10-9
34 LAN 6-2   84 LAN 8-7   134 LAN 11-7
35 STL 6-2   85 LAN 10-1   135 STL 11-6
36 STL 6-1   86 STL 10-0   136 LAN 13-3
37 STL 6-3   87 STL 8-6   137 LAN 10-8
38 LAN 6-4   88 LAN 10-3   138 LAN 12-5
39 STL 6-4   89 LAN 10-2   139 STL 10-8
40 STL 6-0   90 STL 9-5   140 LAN 13-2
41 LAN 6-5   91 LAN 9-6   141 STL 14-1
42 LAN 6-0   92 LAN 10-0   142 STL 11-7
43 LAN 7-1   93 LAN 9-5   143 STL 13-4
44 LAN 7-2   94 STL 10-4   144 LAN 10-9
45 STL 7-2   95 STL 11-1   145 LAN 13-1
46 STL 7-1   96 STL 11-2   146 STL 12-6
47 LAN 7-3   97 STL 9-6   147 LAN 12-4
48 STL 7-3   98 LAN 10-4   148 STL 13-3
49 STL 7-6   99 STL 9-8   149 LAN 13-0
50 LAN 7-4   100 LAN 11-1   150 STL 14-2
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