FanPost

July 17th, Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cardinals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 10:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN STL H.Kuroda vs A.Wainwright STL 61.69% 60.29%

 

Notes:   Another fugly loss in St. Louis.  Desperate times call for desperate measures, so it is time for everyone to do their part in breaking the jinx, whether it be voodoo dolls, not shaving until we win or watching the game while standing on your head.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Cardinals total runs minus Dodgers total runs: 1.5
2. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 93.5
3. Total runs scored in game minus total number of pitchers used in game: 0.5
4. H.Kuroda strikeouts minus A.Pujols total bases: 1.5
5. First inning that the Dodgers score in: 3.5 (Choose over if you think the Dodgers won't score in the first 3 innings, if the Dodgers get shutout then the over wins).

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 STL 2-1   51 LAN 7-4   101 LAN 10-3
2 STL 3-2   52 STL 8-3   102 LAN 9-7
3 STL 4-3   53 STL 7-5   103 STL 12-1
4 LAN 2-1   54 LAN 7-2   104 LAN 9-0
5 LAN 3-2   55 STL 8-0   105 STL 9-7
6 STL 3-1   56 LAN 7-5   106 LAN 10-1
7 STL 1-0   57 LAN 7-1   107 STL 12-4
8 STL 4-2   58 LAN 6-0   108 STL 10-6
9 LAN 4-3   59 STL 9-1   109 LAN 9-8
10 STL 5-4   60 LAN 7-6   110 STL 12-3
11 STL 4-1   61 STL 9-2   111 LAN 11-3
12 LAN 3-1   62 STL 8-4   112 LAN 10-5
13 STL 2-0   63 LAN 8-2   113 STL 11-5
14 LAN 4-2   64 STL 9-3   114 LAN 11-4
15 STL 3-0   65 LAN 8-3   115 STL 13-2
16 STL 5-2   66 STL 8-5   116 LAN 10-0
17 STL 5-1   67 STL 9-0   117 STL 12-0
18 LAN 1-0   68 STL 10-1   118 STL 13-1
19 STL 5-3   69 STL 10-2   119 LAN 10-6
20 STL 4-0   70 LAN 8-5   120 LAN 10-7
21 LAN 4-1   71 LAN 8-4   121 LAN 11-1
22 LAN 2-0   72 STL 8-7   122 STL 10-7
23 LAN 5-4   73 LAN 8-1   123 LAN 11-2
24 LAN 5-3   74 STL 9-4   124 STL 11-6
25 STL 5-0   75 LAN 7-0   125 STL 13-3
26 LAN 5-2   76 STL 8-6   126 STL 13-0
27 STL 6-5   77 LAN 8-6   127 STL 10-9
28 STL 6-2   78 STL 10-3   128 LAN 10-8
29 STL 6-1   79 STL 9-5   129 LAN 11-5
30 LAN 3-0   80 LAN 9-3   130 STL 13-4
31 STL 6-3   81 STL 10-0   131 STL 14-2
32 LAN 5-1   82 LAN 9-2   132 STL 10-8
33 STL 6-4   83 STL 10-4   133 LAN 11-0
34 STL 6-0   84 STL 11-1   134 STL 12-5
35 STL 7-1   85 LAN 9-4   135 LAN 12-1
36 LAN 6-3   86 LAN 8-7   136 LAN 12-2
37 LAN 6-4   87 STL 11-2   137 LAN 10-9
38 STL 7-2   88 LAN 9-1   138 LAN 11-6
39 LAN 4-0   89 LAN 8-0   139 LAN 12-4
40 LAN 6-2   90 STL 11-3   140 LAN 12-3
41 LAN 6-5   91 LAN 9-5   141 STL 14-3
42 STL 7-3   92 STL 9-6   142 STL 14-0
43 STL 7-0   93 STL 11-0   143 STL 12-6
44 STL 7-6   94 LAN 9-6   144 LAN 12-6
45 LAN 6-1   95 LAN 10-2   145 STL 13-5
46 STL 8-1   96 STL 9-8   146 STL 13-6
47 STL 7-4   97 STL 12-2   147 STL 11-10
48 LAN 5-0   98 STL 11-4   148 STL 14-1
49 STL 8-2   99 STL 10-5   149 STL 11-7
50 LAN 7-3   100 LAN 10-4   150 LAN 11-8
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