FanPost

July 18th, Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Cardinals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 8:45 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN STL V.Padilla vs J.Suppan LAN 59.51% 55.06%

 

Notes:   Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  10 points for a correct over/under score.  Game scores must be unique but over/unders do not.  Good luck!

Over/Under Questions:

1. Dodgers total runs minus Cardinals total runs: 1.5
2. V.Padilla total batters faced: 27.5
3. V.Padilla strike outs: 5.5
4. J.Broxton total pitches: 11.5
5. Total number of extra base hits in game (both teams combined): 5.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 STL 3-2   51 LAN 6-0   101 LAN 10-7
2 STL 4-3   52 LAN 8-4   102 LAN 11-4
3 LAN 3-2   53 STL 7-2   103 STL 10-5
4 LAN 4-3   54 STL 4-0   104 LAN 10-0
5 STL 5-4   55 LAN 8-5   105 STL 8-0
6 STL 2-1   56 LAN 8-1   106 LAN 11-5
7 LAN 4-2   57 STL 8-7   107 LAN 11-6
8 LAN 2-1   58 LAN 9-3   108 STL 10-1
9 LAN 5-4   59 LAN 9-2   109 STL 10-9
10 LAN 5-3   60 LAN 8-6   110 STL 11-3
11 LAN 3-1   61 STL 5-0   111 LAN 12-2
12 LAN 5-2   62 LAN 7-0   112 STL 10-6
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 9-4   113 STL 11-4
14 STL 4-2   64 STL 7-1   114 LAN 12-3
15 STL 6-5   65 STL 8-3   115 STL 11-2
16 STL 3-1   66 STL 8-2   116 LAN 11-0
17 STL 5-3   67 LAN 9-1   117 STL 11-5
18 LAN 6-4   68 LAN 8-7   118 STL 10-7
19 LAN 6-3   69 STL 8-5   119 STL 9-0
20 LAN 6-2   70 STL 8-4   120 LAN 12-4
21 STL 5-2   71 STL 8-6   121 LAN 12-5
22 LAN 6-5   72 LAN 9-5   122 LAN 12-1
23 LAN 5-1   73 LAN 9-6   123 LAN 10-9
24 STL 4-1   74 LAN 10-2   124 LAN 10-8
25 STL 1-0   75 STL 6-0   125 STL 11-1
26 STL 6-4   76 LAN 10-3   126 LAN 11-7
27 STL 6-3   77 LAN 8-0   127 STL 10-8
28 LAN 6-1   78 LAN 10-4   128 STL 12-3
29 LAN 3-0   79 STL 8-1   129 STL 11-6
30 LAN 7-2   80 STL 9-4   130 LAN 12-6
31 STL 7-6   81 STL 9-8   131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 2-0   82 STL 9-2   132 LAN 13-3
33 LAN 7-3   83 STL 9-3   133 STL 12-2
34 LAN 7-4   84 STL 9-5   134 LAN 12-7
35 STL 5-1   85 STL 9-6   135 STL 11-7
36 LAN 4-0   86 LAN 10-5   136 STL 12-4
37 LAN 1-0   87 LAN 10-1   137 STL 12-5
38 STL 2-0   88 LAN 9-0   138 LAN 13-1
39 LAN 7-5   89 STL 7-0   139 LAN 13-5
40 STL 6-2   90 LAN 11-3   140 STL 11-10
41 LAN 7-1   91 LAN 11-2   141 LAN 12-0
42 LAN 7-6   92 LAN 9-7   142 STL 10-0
43 STL 3-0   93 LAN 10-6   143 LAN 13-4
44 LAN 5-0   94 LAN 9-8   144 LAN 11-8
45 LAN 8-3   95 STL 10-3   145 LAN 13-6
46 LAN 8-2   96 STL 10-4   146 STL 12-1
47 STL 7-5   97 STL 9-1   147 LAN 14-2
48 STL 7-4   98 STL 9-7   148 LAN 14-4
49 STL 6-1   99 LAN 11-1   149 LAN 12-8
50 STL 7-3   100 STL 10-2   150 STL 12-6
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