FanPost

July 19th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SF LAN M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald LAN 53.70% 51.06%

 

Notes:   Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  10 points for a correct over/under score.  Game scores must be unique but over/unders do not.  Good luck!

Over/Under Questions:

1. J.McDonald total pitches: 77.5
2. M.Kemp total bases minus B.Posey total bases: 0.5
3. Dodgers runs minus J.McDonald walks: 2.5
4. M.Bumgarner strikeouts: 5.5
5. Dodgers runs plus Dodgers hits: 14.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 SF 4-0   101 LAN 10-9
2 LAN 3-2   52 SF 2-0   102 SF 10-7
3 LAN 5-4   53 SF 8-6   103 SF 11-5
4 SF 4-3   54 LAN 4-0   104 LAN 10-1
5 SF 3-2   55 LAN 8-4   105 LAN 11-2
6 LAN 6-5   56 SF 1-0   106 LAN 10-6
7 LAN 2-1   57 LAN 8-5   107 LAN 11-3
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 8-3   108 SF 11-2
9 SF 5-4   59 LAN 7-1   109 SF 9-0
10 SF 4-2   60 SF 5-0   110 LAN 10-7
11 SF 5-3   61 SF 8-7   111 LAN 11-4
12 LAN 5-3   62 SF 9-3   112 SF 11-6
13 LAN 3-1   63 SF 9-4   113 SF 10-8
14 SF 5-2   64 LAN 8-6   114 LAN 11-5
15 LAN 5-2   65 LAN 5-0   115 SF 11-7
16 SF 3-1   66 SF 8-1   116 SF 11-1
17 SF 2-1   67 LAN 8-2   117 SF 12-3
18 SF 6-4   68 SF 9-2   118 SF 12-4
19 SF 6-5   69 LAN 9-4   119 LAN 9-0
20 SF 6-3   70 LAN 9-8   120 LAN 11-6
21 SF 4-1   71 SF 6-0   121 SF 10-9
22 LAN 6-4   72 LAN 6-0   122 LAN 10-8
23 LAN 4-1   73 SF 9-5   123 LAN 11-1
24 LAN 6-3   74 SF 9-6   124 LAN 12-3
25 LAN 7-6   75 LAN 9-3   125 SF 10-0
26 SF 7-4   76 LAN 9-6   126 LAN 12-4
27 SF 6-2   77 LAN 8-1   127 SF 12-5
28 SF 5-1   78 SF 7-0   128 SF 12-2
29 SF 7-3   79 LAN 9-5   129 LAN 12-5
30 SF 7-5   80 SF 10-4   130 LAN 12-2
31 LAN 6-2   81 SF 10-3   131 LAN 11-7
32 LAN 7-4   82 SF 9-1   132 SF 12-6
33 LAN 5-1   83 LAN 9-2   133 SF 11-8
34 SF 7-2   84 SF 9-7   134 LAN 10-0
35 LAN 1-0   85 SF 10-5   135 LAN 11-10
36 SF 7-6   86 SF 10-2   136 SF 13-3
37 LAN 7-5   87 LAN 10-3   137 LAN 11-8
38 SF 6-1   88 LAN 9-7   138 SF 13-5
39 LAN 7-3   89 LAN 7-0   139 SF 13-4
40 LAN 2-0   90 SF 9-8   140 LAN 13-3
41 LAN 8-7   91 LAN 9-1   141 LAN 13-4
42 LAN 3-0   92 LAN 10-2   142 SF 12-7
43 LAN 6-1   93 SF 10-6   143 SF 12-1
44 SF 8-4   94 LAN 10-4   144 SF 11-0
45 SF 8-3   95 SF 8-0   145 SF 13-2
46 SF 3-0   96 SF 11-4   146 LAN 12-1
47 LAN 7-2   97 SF 10-1   147 SF 11-9
48 SF 8-5   98 LAN 10-5   148 LAN 11-0
49 SF 8-2   99 SF 11-3   149 LAN 12-6
50 SF 7-1   100 LAN 8-0   150 SF 11-10




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