July 20th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jul 19, 2010 11:00 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 10:45 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| SF | LAN | T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw | LAN | 53.70% | 54.67% |
Notes: 7.1 on the richter scale of pitchers duel. It's not quite Marichal vs Koufax, but it is the modern day version of it. Get your game score and over/under guesses in. 10 points for a correct over/under score. Game scores must be unique but over/unders do not. Good luck!
Over/Under Questions:
1. C.Kershaw strikeouts plus T.Lincecum strikeouts: 15.5
2. C.Kershaw earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. T.Lincecum number of pitches: 112.5
4. C.Kershaw walks allowed: 1.5
5. Total runs scored at the end of five innings: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 2-1 | 51 LAN 7-4 | 101 SF 9-7 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 LAN 7-5 | 102 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 | 53 SF 8-2 | 103 SF 11-2 | ||
| 4 LAN 1-0 | 54 LAN 7-0 | 104 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 5 SF 2-1 | 55 SF 7-5 | 105 SF 11-1 | ||
| 6 SF 3-2 | 56 SF 8-3 | 106 SF 11-3 | ||
| 7 LAN 3-1 | 57 SF 8-1 | 107 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 8 LAN 2-0 | 58 LAN 8-2 | 108 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 9 SF 3-1 | 59 LAN 8-1 | 109 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-2 | 60 SF 7-6 | 110 SF 11-4 | ||
| 11 LAN 5-4 | 61 SF 7-0 | 111 SF 11-5 | ||
| 12 SF 4-3 | 62 LAN 8-3 | 112 SF 10-6 | ||
| 13 SF 1-0 | 63 SF 8-4 | 113 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-1 | 64 LAN 9-2 | 114 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 15 SF 4-2 | 65 LAN 8-0 | 115 SF 11-0 | ||
| 16 SF 4-1 | 66 LAN 8-4 | 116 SF 9-8 | ||
| 17 SF 2-0 | 67 LAN 9-1 | 117 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 18 LAN 3-0 | 68 SF 8-5 | 118 SF 12-3 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 | 69 SF 9-1 | 119 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 20 SF 3-0 | 70 SF 9-2 | 120 SF 12-1 | ||
| 21 SF 5-2 | 71 SF 9-3 | 121 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-3 | 72 LAN 8-7 | 122 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 23 LAN 4-0 | 73 SF 8-0 | 123 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 24 SF 5-4 | 74 LAN 8-5 | 124 SF 10-7 | ||
| 25 SF 5-3 | 75 SF 8-6 | 125 SF 12-2 | ||
| 26 LAN 5-1 | 76 SF 9-4 | 126 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 27 SF 5-1 | 77 LAN 9-3 | 127 SF 12-0 | ||
| 28 SF 4-0 | 78 LAN 10-1 | 128 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-5 | 79 LAN 10-2 | 129 SF 11-6 | ||
| 30 SF 6-3 | 80 SF 8-7 | 130 SF 10-8 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-3 | 81 LAN 9-0 | 131 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 32 SF 6-2 | 82 SF 9-5 | 132 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 33 LAN 5-0 | 83 LAN 8-6 | 133 SF 10-9 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-2 | 84 SF 9-0 | 134 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-1 | 85 SF 10-2 | 135 SF 11-7 | ||
| 36 SF 6-1 | 86 LAN 9-4 | 136 SF 12-4 | ||
| 37 SF 6-4 | 87 SF 10-1 | 137 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-4 | 88 SF 10-4 | 138 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 39 SF 5-0 | 89 LAN 10-3 | 139 SF 13-3 | ||
| 40 SF 6-5 | 90 SF 9-6 | 140 SF 12-5 | ||
| 41 LAN 6-0 | 91 LAN 9-5 | 141 SF 13-2 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-2 | 92 LAN 10-0 | 142 SF 13-1 | ||
| 43 SF 7-2 | 93 SF 10-3 | 143 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 44 SF 7-3 | 94 LAN 9-8 | 144 SF 11-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-6 | 95 LAN 9-6 | 145 SF 13-0 | ||
| 46 SF 7-1 | 96 SF 10-5 | 146 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 47 SF 6-0 | 97 LAN 10-4 | 147 SF 13-4 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-3 | 98 LAN 11-1 | 148 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-1 | 99 SF 10-0 | 149 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 50 SF 7-4 | 100 LAN 11-2 | 150 LAN 13-4 |
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Current Leaderboard
1. Humma Kavula 44
2. matthewmafa 42
3t. kinbote 41
3t. MammothDodger 41
3t. Phil Gurnee 41
6. Michael White 40
7. delias man 37
8. fritts 32
9. bucknellbruin 31
10. Xeifrank 20
11. Boulder Dodger 19
12. Jesse S. 13
13. David Young 11
14. keithc13 9
15. Ego Crusher! 8
16. lakersdodgersyankees4life 6
17t. DannyDodger 5
17t. dsm9412 5
19t. joey joe 3
19t. Alex41592 3
21. Eric Stephen 2
= Kids Table =
22t. underdog 1
22t. dolger14 1
22t. G.Scott 1
Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question
Good for 10 points.
1. C.Kershaw strikeouts plus T.Lincecum strikeouts: 15.5
2. C.Kershaw earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. T.Lincecum number of pitches: 112.5
4. C.Kershaw walks allowed: 1.5
5. Total runs scored at the end of five innings: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
late inning fireworks?
less than 3 runs through 5 but 17 total. nice. haha
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Jul 20, 2010 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions
OUUOU a very popular pick so far
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jul 20, 2010 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions
7 LAN 3-1 OUUOU
Everytime you think how badly you want Frank McCourt gone, ask yourself how you would feel to have Donald Sterling instead.
#49 LAN 7-1, UUOUU
Dodger break open a 1-1 game in the bottom of the 8th inning. Broxton comes in to preserve the 6 run lead and the losing streak is over.
#61 SFO 7 - 0
Under Questions:
1. C.Kershaw strikeouts plus T.Lincecum strikeouts: 15.5
2. C.Kershaw earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. T.Lincecum number of pitches: 112.5
4. C.Kershaw walks allowed: 1.5
5. Total runs scored at the end of five innings: 2.5
uouoo
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
#55 SF 7-5, UUUOO
Nobody picked score #55, the 5-3-1 points go to.
5 – #61 Phil Gurnee SF 7-0
3 – #39 matthewmafa SF 5-0
1- #30 Humma Kavula SF 6-3
keithc13 and David Young got the over/under correct. Each get 10 points
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