July 20th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 10:45 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob SF LAN T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw LAN 53.70% 54.67%

Notes:   7.1 on the richter scale of pitchers duel.  It's not quite Marichal vs Koufax, but it is the modern day version of it.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  10 points for a correct over/under score.  Game scores must be unique but over/unders do not.  Good luck!

Over/Under Questions:

1. C.Kershaw strikeouts plus T.Lincecum strikeouts: 15.5
2. C.Kershaw earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. T.Lincecum number of pitches: 112.5
4. C.Kershaw walks allowed: 1.5
5. Total runs scored at the end of five innings: 2.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 LAN 2-1 51 LAN 7-4 101 SF 9-7 2 LAN 3-2 52 LAN 7-5 102 LAN 9-7 3 LAN 4-3 53 SF 8-2 103 SF 11-2 4 LAN 1-0 54 LAN 7-0 104 LAN 11-3 5 SF 2-1 55 SF 7-5 105 SF 11-1 6 SF 3-2 56 SF 8-3 106 SF 11-3 7 LAN 3-1 57 SF 8-1 107 LAN 10-5 8 LAN 2-0 58 LAN 8-2 108 LAN 11-0 9 SF 3-1 59 LAN 8-1 109 LAN 11-4 10 LAN 4-2 60 SF 7-6 110 SF 11-4 11 LAN 5-4 61 SF 7-0 111 SF 11-5 12 SF 4-3 62 LAN 8-3 112 SF 10-6 13 SF 1-0 63 SF 8-4 113 LAN 10-6 14 LAN 4-1 64 LAN 9-2 114 LAN 12-2 15 SF 4-2 65 LAN 8-0 115 SF 11-0 16 SF 4-1 66 LAN 8-4 116 SF 9-8 17 SF 2-0 67 LAN 9-1 117 LAN 12-3 18 LAN 3-0 68 SF 8-5 118 SF 12-3 19 LAN 5-2 69 SF 9-1 119 LAN 12-1 20 SF 3-0 70 SF 9-2 120 SF 12-1 21 SF 5-2 71 SF 9-3 121 LAN 12-0 22 LAN 5-3 72 LAN 8-7 122 LAN 10-9 23 LAN 4-0 73 SF 8-0 123 LAN 10-7 24 SF 5-4 74 LAN 8-5 124 SF 10-7 25 SF 5-3 75 SF 8-6 125 SF 12-2 26 LAN 5-1 76 SF 9-4 126 LAN 11-5 27 SF 5-1 77 LAN 9-3 127 SF 12-0 28 SF 4-0 78 LAN 10-1 128 LAN 12-4 29 LAN 6-5 79 LAN 10-2 129 SF 11-6 30 SF 6-3 80 SF 8-7 130 SF 10-8 31 LAN 6-3 81 LAN 9-0 131 LAN 13-1 32 SF 6-2 82 SF 9-5 132 LAN 10-8 33 LAN 5-0 83 LAN 8-6 133 SF 10-9 34 LAN 6-2 84 SF 9-0 134 LAN 11-6 35 LAN 6-1 85 SF 10-2 135 SF 11-7 36 SF 6-1 86 LAN 9-4 136 SF 12-4 37 SF 6-4 87 SF 10-1 137 LAN 13-2 38 LAN 6-4 88 SF 10-4 138 LAN 12-5 39 SF 5-0 89 LAN 10-3 139 SF 13-3 40 SF 6-5 90 SF 9-6 140 SF 12-5 41 LAN 6-0 91 LAN 9-5 141 SF 13-2 42 LAN 7-2 92 LAN 10-0 142 SF 13-1 43 SF 7-2 93 SF 10-3 143 LAN 13-3 44 SF 7-3 94 LAN 9-8 144 SF 11-8 45 LAN 7-6 95 LAN 9-6 145 SF 13-0 46 SF 7-1 96 SF 10-5 146 LAN 11-8 47 SF 6-0 97 LAN 10-4 147 SF 13-4 48 LAN 7-3 98 LAN 11-1 148 LAN 11-7 49 LAN 7-1 99 SF 10-0 149 LAN 14-1 50 SF 7-4 100 LAN 11-2 150 LAN 13-4

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