July 21st, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jul 21, 2010 12:37 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:15 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| SF | LAN | B.Zito vs C.Billingsley | LAN | 56.52% | 56.84% |
Notes: The Dodgers could use a strong 7+ inning performance from Chad Billingsley with the only two effective bullpen members (Guo, Billingsley) likely doubtful for Wednesday's game. Nonetheless the simulator and vegas are in pretty agreement as to the Dodgers chances of salvaging a game against the Giants. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. C.Billingsley number of pitches: 103.5
2. Earned runs allowed by Dodgers bullpen: 2.5
3. Total bases from Dodgers starting outfielders: 5.5
4. B.Zito number of strikeouts: 5.5
5. Dodgers offense LOB: 7.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 3-2 | 51 SF 7-5 | 101 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 2 LAN 2-1 | 52 LAN 8-3 | 102 SF 9-8 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 | 53 LAN 8-1 | 103 SF 9-0 | ||
| 4 SF 3-2 | 54 LAN 7-5 | 104 SF 10-1 | ||
| 5 SF 2-1 | 55 LAN 7-0 | 105 SF 10-5 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 | 56 SF 5-0 | 106 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 7 SF 4-3 | 57 LAN 8-4 | 107 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 8 LAN 3-1 | 58 SF 7-1 | 108 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 LAN 8-7 | 109 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 10 SF 4-2 | 60 LAN 9-2 | 110 SF 11-2 | ||
| 11 SF 3-1 | 61 SF 6-0 | 111 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 12 LAN 1-0 | 62 SF 8-3 | 112 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-1 | 63 LAN 9-3 | 113 SF 10-6 | ||
| 14 SF 5-4 | 64 LAN 9-1 | 114 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-2 | 65 SF 8-4 | 115 SF 10-7 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 | 66 LAN 8-0 | 116 SF 11-3 | ||
| 17 LAN 6-5 | 67 SF 8-2 | 117 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 18 SF 5-3 | 68 SF 8-5 | 118 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 19 LAN 2-0 | 69 SF 8-6 | 119 SF 10-0 | ||
| 20 LAN 3-0 | 70 LAN 9-4 | 120 SF 11-4 | ||
| 21 SF 1-0 | 71 LAN 8-5 | 121 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-1 | 72 SF 8-1 | 122 SF 11-1 | ||
| 23 SF 4-1 | 73 LAN 8-6 | 123 SF 10-8 | ||
| 24 SF 5-2 | 74 LAN 10-2 | 124 SF 12-4 | ||
| 25 LAN 4-0 | 75 SF 8-7 | 125 SF 12-3 | ||
| 26 SF 2-0 | 76 SF 7-0 | 126 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 27 LAN 6-2 | 77 SF 9-2 | 127 SF 11-5 | ||
| 28 LAN 6-3 | 78 LAN 9-0 | 128 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 29 SF 6-5 | 79 LAN 9-5 | 129 SF 10-9 | ||
| 30 SF 3-0 | 80 SF 9-3 | 130 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 31 SF 6-3 | 81 LAN 10-1 | 131 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-4 | 82 LAN 10-3 | 132 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-1 | 83 SF 9-4 | 133 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 34 LAN 5-0 | 84 LAN 10-4 | 134 SF 11-7 | ||
| 35 SF 6-4 | 85 SF 9-1 | 135 SF 12-1 | ||
| 36 SF 5-1 | 86 LAN 9-8 | 136 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 37 SF 6-2 | 87 SF 8-0 | 137 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 38 LAN 7-2 | 88 SF 9-5 | 138 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-6 | 89 SF 9-6 | 139 SF 11-6 | ||
| 40 SF 4-0 | 90 LAN 11-2 | 140 SF 12-2 | ||
| 41 LAN 6-0 | 91 LAN 11-1 | 141 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-1 | 92 LAN 9-6 | 142 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-3 | 93 LAN 11-3 | 143 LAN 14-4 | ||
| 44 SF 7-4 | 94 LAN 10-0 | 144 LAN 14-2 | ||
| 45 SF 6-1 | 95 LAN 10-5 | 145 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 46 LAN 8-2 | 96 SF 10-3 | 146 LAN 14-3 | ||
| 47 LAN 7-4 | 97 SF 9-7 | 147 SF 12-5 | ||
| 48 SF 7-3 | 98 SF 10-2 | 148 SF 11-8 | ||
| 49 SF 7-6 | 99 LAN 9-7 | 149 LAN 11-10 | ||
| 50 SF 7-2 | 100 SF 10-4 | 150 LAN 13-5 |
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Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question (worth 10 points)
1. C.Billingsley number of pitches: 103.5
2. Earned runs allowed by Dodgers bullpen: 2.5
3. Total bases from Dodgers starting outfielders: 5.5
4. B.Zito number of strikeouts: 5.5
5. Dodgers offense LOB: 7.5
Note: Game score guesses must be unique, but over/under guesses do not.
79 LAN 9-5
today is the slump buster.
OUOOU
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
After backto back jacks
I’m going to give you guys a break and sit this one out. Climbing to the top with bloody hands over the carcasses of the Dodger bullpen wears on a man, but I do so enjoy the view looking down from the top.
28 lan 6-3
OUOUO
Just a reminder, fans, comin' up is our "Die-hard Night" here at the stadium. Free admission to anyone who was actually alive the last time the Dodgers won a pennant.
#3
OUOOO
"If your Mr. October, I'm Mr. Spring, Summer and Winter!" - Tommy Lasorda to Reggie Jackson
#19 LAN 2-0, OUUUU
Nobody hit the game score and amazingly nobody hit the over/under either. The 5-3-1 points for closest game scores goes to…
5 – Xeifrank #16 LAN 5-3
3 – keithc13 #15 LAN 5-2
1 – G.Scott #28 LAN 6-3
matthewmafa has OUUUU
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jul 21, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions
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