FanPost

July 22nd, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 NYN LAN H.Takahashi vs H.Kuroda LAN 61.69% 63.88%

 

Notes:   Last nights complete game came at a really good time for the Dodgers, as the bullpen needed the rest and the "alone" time.  A couple of more losses and we'd all need some alone time ourselves.  The Mets come to town having lost a 14 inning game in Arizona, having used six members of their bullpen.  It would be nice if the Dodgers could get to Takahashi early and drive up his pitch count.  The simulator and Vegas are in decent agreement as to how heavily the Dodgers are favored to win their second straight game.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 104.5
2. H.Kuroda strikeouts minus H.Takahashi strikeouts: 2.5
3. Number of bullpen pitchers used by Dodgers: 2.5
4. Total number of runs scored by both teams combined: 8.5
5. Number of Asian born pitchers used (both teams): 2.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 NYN 7-4   101 NYN 10-4
2 LAN 4-3   52 NYN 3-0   102 NYN 10-3
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 8-7   103 LAN 11-0
4 LAN 5-4   54 NYN 7-6   104 LAN 12-1
5 LAN 4-2   55 LAN 9-2   105 LAN 11-5
6 LAN 3-1   56 NYN 6-1   106 NYN 10-5
7 NYN 3-2   57 LAN 8-5   107 NYN 8-0
8 NYN 4-3   58 LAN 9-3   108 LAN 12-3
9 LAN 4-1   59 NYN 7-2   109 NYN 9-1
10 LAN 5-3   60 LAN 9-1   110 LAN 10-7
11 LAN 5-2   61 LAN 8-0   111 LAN 12-4
12 NYN 2-1   62 NYN 4-0   112 LAN 10-9
13 LAN 6-5   63 NYN 8-4   113 NYN 10-6
14 LAN 1-0   64 NYN 8-3   114 NYN 10-7
15 NYN 4-2   65 LAN 9-4   115 NYN 11-4
16 LAN 5-1   66 LAN 8-6   116 NYN 10-1
17 NYN 5-4   67 NYN 7-1   117 LAN 13-2
18 LAN 3-0   68 LAN 10-2   118 LAN 11-6
19 LAN 2-0   69 LAN 10-3   119 LAN 12-5
20 NYN 3-1   70 NYN 8-2   120 LAN 12-0
21 LAN 6-3   71 LAN 10-1   121 LAN 13-3
22 LAN 6-2   72 NYN 8-5   122 NYN 11-5
23 NYN 5-3   73 NYN 5-0   123 LAN 13-1
24 LAN 6-4   74 NYN 8-6   124 NYN 11-3
25 LAN 4-0   75 LAN 9-0   125 NYN 10-9
26 LAN 6-1   76 LAN 9-5   126 LAN 13-4
27 NYN 5-2   77 NYN 8-7   127 LAN 10-8
28 NYN 6-4   78 LAN 10-4   128 NYN 10-8
29 LAN 7-6   79 LAN 9-6   129 NYN 11-2
30 LAN 5-0   80 LAN 9-8   130 NYN 9-0
31 NYN 6-5   81 NYN 6-0   131 NYN 11-7
32 LAN 7-2   82 LAN 11-2   132 LAN 11-8
33 NYN 4-1   83 NYN 9-4   133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 7-3   84 LAN 11-1   134 NYN 11-6
35 NYN 6-3   85 LAN 10-0   135 NYN 11-1
36 LAN 7-4   86 NYN 8-1   136 LAN 13-0
37 NYN 1-0   87 LAN 11-3   137 LAN 14-1
38 LAN 7-1   88 NYN 9-3   138 LAN 12-6
39 LAN 6-0   89 NYN 9-2   139 LAN 14-5
40 NYN 5-1   90 NYN 9-5   140 NYN 12-4
41 NYN 2-0   91 LAN 11-4   141 LAN 14-2
42 LAN 8-2   92 NYN 9-6   142 NYN 12-2
43 LAN 7-5   93 LAN 10-5   143 NYN 12-3
44 LAN 8-1   94 LAN 9-7   144 LAN 11-10
45 LAN 8-3   95 NYN 7-0   145 NYN 10-0
46 NYN 6-2   96 NYN 9-8   146 LAN 14-3
47 LAN 7-0   97 NYN 9-7   147 LAN 14-4
48 NYN 7-5   98 LAN 12-2   148 LAN 12-7
49 NYN 7-3   99 LAN 10-6   149 NYN 12-5
50 LAN 8-4   100 NYN 10-2   150 LAN 13-5
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