July 23rd, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jul 22, 2010 11:06 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:45 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| NYN | LAN | J.Santana vs V.Padilla | LAN | 53.49% | 53.99% |
Notes: Two straight 2-0 shutout wins for the Dodgers. How long will it be before somebody jumps on the bandwagon and picks that score. Once again, Vegas and the simulator are in very good agreement as to the probability of a Dodger victory and in this case it is little more than a coin toss. The simulator realizes that both pitchers have been somewhat lucky this year (FIP and xFIP), but the luck of both pitchers offsets each other in terms of win probability. Where the simulator differs with Vegas is that Vegas has the over/under at 6.6 runs and the simulator has it at 8.1. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored in game: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total number of pitches: 107.5
3. V.Padilla strikeouts minus J.Santana strikeouts: 1.5
4. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
5. Batters faced by Dodgers bullpen: 10.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 3-2 | 51 NYN 7-6 | 101 NYN 9-7 | ||
| 2 LAN 4-3 | 52 NYN 7-1 | 102 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 3 LAN 2-1 | 53 NYN 8-2 | 103 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 4 LAN 5-4 | 54 LAN 8-7 | 104 NYN 9-8 | ||
| 5 NYN 3-2 | 55 NYN 8-3 | 105 NYN 10-6 | ||
| 6 NYN 4-3 | 56 NYN 6-0 | 106 NYN 11-4 | ||
| 7 NYN 2-1 | 57 LAN 8-3 | 107 NYN 11-2 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-2 | 58 LAN 8-2 | 108 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 9 NYN 4-2 | 59 LAN 8-1 | 109 NYN 11-1 | ||
| 10 LAN 3-1 | 60 LAN 6-0 | 110 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 11 NYN 3-1 | 61 NYN 8-4 | 111 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 12 LAN 6-5 | 62 LAN 8-4 | 112 NYN 11-3 | ||
| 13 NYN 5-4 | 63 NYN 8-1 | 113 NYN 10-0 | ||
| 14 LAN 5-3 | 64 LAN 8-5 | 114 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 15 LAN 1-0 | 65 NYN 7-0 | 115 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-2 | 66 NYN 8-5 | 116 NYN 11-5 | ||
| 17 NYN 5-3 | 67 LAN 9-3 | 117 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 18 LAN 4-1 | 68 LAN 9-2 | 118 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 19 NYN 4-1 | 69 LAN 7-0 | 119 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 20 NYN 5-2 | 70 NYN 8-6 | 120 NYN 10-7 | ||
| 21 LAN 2-0 | 71 NYN 9-2 | 121 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 22 LAN 6-3 | 72 NYN 9-3 | 122 NYN 11-6 | ||
| 23 NYN 2-0 | 73 LAN 8-6 | 123 NYN 10-8 | ||
| 24 LAN 5-1 | 74 NYN 9-4 | 124 NYN 11-0 | ||
| 25 LAN 6-4 | 75 LAN 9-1 | 125 NYN 12-2 | ||
| 26 NYN 6-3 | 76 NYN 8-7 | 126 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 27 NYN 1-0 | 77 LAN 9-4 | 127 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 28 NYN 3-0 | 78 NYN 9-1 | 128 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 29 NYN 5-1 | 79 LAN 10-2 | 129 NYN 12-3 | ||
| 30 NYN 6-4 | 80 LAN 8-0 | 130 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-2 | 81 NYN 9-5 | 131 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 32 LAN 3-0 | 82 NYN 8-0 | 132 NYN 10-9 | ||
| 33 NYN 6-5 | 83 LAN 9-8 | 133 NYN 12-1 | ||
| 34 NYN 6-2 | 84 LAN 9-5 | 134 NYN 12-5 | ||
| 35 LAN 7-6 | 85 NYN 10-2 | 135 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 36 LAN 4-0 | 86 LAN 10-3 | 136 NYN 12-4 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-1 | 87 NYN 9-6 | 137 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 38 NYN 6-1 | 88 LAN 9-6 | 138 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 39 NYN 4-0 | 89 LAN 10-1 | 139 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-4 | 90 LAN 10-4 | 140 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 41 LAN 7-2 | 91 NYN 10-3 | 141 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 42 NYN 7-3 | 92 NYN 10-4 | 142 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 43 NYN 7-4 | 93 LAN 10-5 | 143 NYN 13-2 | ||
| 44 NYN 7-2 | 94 NYN 10-1 | 144 NYN 11-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-3 | 95 NYN 9-0 | 145 NYN 13-3 | ||
| 46 NYN 7-5 | 96 LAN 9-0 | 146 LAN 14-3 | ||
| 47 NYN 5-0 | 97 NYN 10-5 | 147 NYN 12-6 | ||
| 48 LAN 5-0 | 98 LAN 11-3 | 148 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-5 | 99 LAN 9-7 | 149 LAN 11-10 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-1 | 100 LAN 11-2 | 150 NYN 13-4 |
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Current Leaderboard
1. matthewmafa 55
2. Phil Gurnee 46
3t. Humma Kavula 45
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= Kids Table =
23t. underdog 1
23t. dolger14 1
Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question
10 points for a correct answer. Game scores need to be unique guesses, over/under does not.
1. Total runs scored in game: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total number of pitches: 107.5
3. V.Padilla strikeouts minus J.Santana strikeouts: 1.5
4. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
5. Batters faced by Dodgers bullpen: 10.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
damn you, i wanted to pick that :)
Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?
by bucknellbruin on Jul 23, 2010 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
5 NYM 3-2
UOOUU
Just a reminder, fans, comin' up is our "Die-hard Night" here at the stadium. Free admission to anyone who was actually alive the last time the Dodgers won a pennant.
Just for fun :)
Mr. French: Do you know me?
Billy Costigan: No. No.
Mr. French: Well, I’m the guy who tells you there’s guys you can hit and guys you can’t. Now, that’s not quite a guy you can’t hit, but he’s almost a guy you can’t hit. So I’m gonna make a fuckin’ ruling on this right now: you don’t fucking hit him. You understand?
Oh yeah
Shoe’s on the other foot now, innit?
Or, rather, the shoe having been on the other foot yesterday, shoe’s back on the proper foot now, innit?
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jul 23, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Pick #1, and it comes in, you get one point. Pick #1, and #2 comes in, and nobody picks #2, you get 5 points
That doesn’t make sense to me.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jul 23, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
# 9 NYM 4 -2
1. Total runs scored in game: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total number of pitches: 107.5
3. V.Padilla strikeouts minus J.Santana strikeouts: 1.5
4. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
5. Batters faced by Dodgers bullpen: 10.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
uuuuo
Now that Jansen is up the Dodgers will win 2 - 1
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
#38 NYN 6-1, UUOUO
Nobody picked the correct score. Nobody got the over/under correct. 5-3-1 points go to…
5 – matthewmafa #29, NYN 5-1
3 – Humma Kavula #26 NYN 6-3
1 – kinbote #23 NYN 2-0
The rich get richer.
wow
one off in the over under game chose the wrong answer on the third question
and just one off the mets score… so close to a huge day
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