FanPost

July 23rd, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 NYN LAN J.Santana vs V.Padilla LAN 53.49% 53.99%

 

Notes:   Two straight 2-0 shutout wins for the Dodgers.  How long will it be before somebody jumps on the bandwagon and picks that score.  Once again, Vegas and the simulator are in very good agreement as to the probability of a Dodger victory and in this case it is little more than a coin toss.  The simulator realizes that both pitchers have been somewhat lucky this year (FIP and xFIP), but the luck of both pitchers offsets each other in terms of win probability.  Where the simulator differs with Vegas is that Vegas has the over/under at 6.6 runs and the simulator has it at 8.1.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total number of pitches: 107.5
3. V.Padilla strikeouts minus J.Santana strikeouts: 1.5
4. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
5. Batters faced by Dodgers bullpen: 10.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 NYN 7-6   101 NYN 9-7
2 LAN 4-3   52 NYN 7-1   102 LAN 11-4
3 LAN 2-1   53 NYN 8-2   103 LAN 11-5
4 LAN 5-4   54 LAN 8-7   104 NYN 9-8
5 NYN 3-2   55 NYN 8-3   105 NYN 10-6
6 NYN 4-3   56 NYN 6-0   106 NYN 11-4
7 NYN 2-1   57 LAN 8-3   107 NYN 11-2
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 8-2   108 LAN 10-6
9 NYN 4-2   59 LAN 8-1   109 NYN 11-1
10 LAN 3-1   60 LAN 6-0   110 LAN 10-0
11 NYN 3-1   61 NYN 8-4   111 LAN 11-1
12 LAN 6-5   62 LAN 8-4   112 NYN 11-3
13 NYN 5-4   63 NYN 8-1   113 NYN 10-0
14 LAN 5-3   64 LAN 8-5   114 LAN 10-9
15 LAN 1-0   65 NYN 7-0   115 LAN 10-7
16 LAN 5-2   66 NYN 8-5   116 NYN 11-5
17 NYN 5-3   67 LAN 9-3   117 LAN 12-3
18 LAN 4-1   68 LAN 9-2   118 LAN 12-2
19 NYN 4-1   69 LAN 7-0   119 LAN 12-4
20 NYN 5-2   70 NYN 8-6   120 NYN 10-7
21 LAN 2-0   71 NYN 9-2   121 LAN 11-6
22 LAN 6-3   72 NYN 9-3   122 NYN 11-6
23 NYN 2-0   73 LAN 8-6   123 NYN 10-8
24 LAN 5-1   74 NYN 9-4   124 NYN 11-0
25 LAN 6-4   75 LAN 9-1   125 NYN 12-2
26 NYN 6-3   76 NYN 8-7   126 LAN 13-3
27 NYN 1-0   77 LAN 9-4   127 LAN 12-1
28 NYN 3-0   78 NYN 9-1   128 LAN 13-1
29 NYN 5-1   79 LAN 10-2   129 NYN 12-3
30 NYN 6-4   80 LAN 8-0   130 LAN 11-0
31 LAN 6-2   81 NYN 9-5   131 LAN 11-7
32 LAN 3-0   82 NYN 8-0   132 NYN 10-9
33 NYN 6-5   83 LAN 9-8   133 NYN 12-1
34 NYN 6-2   84 LAN 9-5   134 NYN 12-5
35 LAN 7-6   85 NYN 10-2   135 LAN 12-5
36 LAN 4-0   86 LAN 10-3   136 NYN 12-4
37 LAN 6-1   87 NYN 9-6   137 LAN 10-8
38 NYN 6-1   88 LAN 9-6   138 LAN 13-2
39 NYN 4-0   89 LAN 10-1   139 LAN 12-6
40 LAN 7-4   90 LAN 10-4   140 LAN 13-4
41 LAN 7-2   91 NYN 10-3   141 LAN 12-0
42 NYN 7-3   92 NYN 10-4   142 LAN 11-8
43 NYN 7-4   93 LAN 10-5   143 NYN 13-2
44 NYN 7-2   94 NYN 10-1   144 NYN 11-8
45 LAN 7-3   95 NYN 9-0   145 NYN 13-3
46 NYN 7-5   96 LAN 9-0   146 LAN 14-3
47 NYN 5-0   97 NYN 10-5   147 NYN 12-6
48 LAN 5-0   98 LAN 11-3   148 LAN 13-5
49 LAN 7-5   99 LAN 9-7   149 LAN 11-10
50 LAN 7-1   100 LAN 11-2   150 NYN 13-4
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