FanPost

July 24th, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 10:40 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 NYN LAN M.Pelfrey vs C.Monasterios LAN 54.55% 48.45%

 

Notes:   A pretty sizeable difference between what Vegas and the simulator think will happen.  Vegas has the Dodgers as slight favorites, while the simulator has less confidence in Carlos Monasterios and his merry band of bullpen men than Vegas does.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  Tomorrow's game starts at 1:10 local time and will be carried by Fox.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 8.5
2. C.Monasterios total pitches: 75.5
3. Total HRs in game: 1.5
4. Number of half innings that 2 or more runs are scored in: 1.5
5. Batters faced by Dodgers bullpen: 17.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 LAN 3-0   101 NYN 10-7
2 LAN 3-2   52 NYN 5-0   102 NYN 11-2
3 LAN 5-4   53 LAN 7-2   103 LAN 10-9
4 NYN 4-3   54 NYN 8-1   104 NYN 11-4
5 NYN 3-2   55 LAN 6-1   105 LAN 11-4
6 LAN 2-1   56 LAN 8-5   106 LAN 11-3
7 LAN 6-5   57 NYN 8-6   107 NYN 11-1
8 NYN 4-2   58 LAN 8-4   108 LAN 10-6
9 NYN 5-4   59 NYN 6-0   109 NYN 11-5
10 LAN 5-3   60 LAN 8-6   110 LAN 10-1
11 NYN 5-3   61 LAN 8-3   111 LAN 11-5
12 LAN 4-2   62 NYN 9-4   112 LAN 8-0
13 NYN 3-1   63 NYN 9-3   113 LAN 11-2
14 NYN 5-2   64 NYN 9-2   114 NYN 12-3
15 NYN 2-1   65 LAN 4-0   115 NYN 11-6
16 LAN 5-2   66 NYN 8-7   116 NYN 10-8
17 LAN 3-1   67 LAN 7-1   117 NYN 10-0
18 NYN 6-4   68 LAN 8-2   118 NYN 12-2
19 NYN 6-3   69 NYN 7-0   119 LAN 12-3
20 NYN 4-1   70 LAN 9-8   120 LAN 10-8
21 NYN 6-5   71 LAN 9-3   121 NYN 12-4
22 LAN 7-6   72 NYN 9-6   122 LAN 11-1
23 LAN 6-4   73 NYN 9-5   123 LAN 11-6
24 LAN 6-3   74 NYN 9-1   124 LAN 9-0
25 LAN 4-1   75 LAN 5-0   125 NYN 11-7
26 NYN 6-2   76 LAN 9-4   126 NYN 10-9
27 NYN 5-1   77 NYN 10-3   127 LAN 12-4
28 NYN 7-4   78 NYN 10-2   128 NYN 12-5
29 NYN 7-3   79 LAN 9-2   129 LAN 11-7
30 NYN 7-2   80 LAN 9-6   130 LAN 12-5
31 LAN 7-4   81 NYN 10-4   131 LAN 11-10
32 NYN 6-1   82 LAN 8-1   132 NYN 13-3
33 NYN 7-6   83 NYN 10-1   133 NYN 12-6
34 LAN 1-0   84 NYN 8-0   134 NYN 12-1
35 NYN 7-5   85 LAN 9-5   135 NYN 11-8
36 LAN 6-2   86 NYN 10-5   136 LAN 10-0
37 NYN 3-0   87 LAN 6-0   137 LAN 12-2
38 LAN 8-7   88 LAN 9-7   138 NYN 11-0
39 LAN 5-1   89 NYN 9-7   139 NYN 13-4
40 NYN 7-1   90 LAN 10-4   140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 7-5   91 NYN 11-3   141 NYN 12-0
42 LAN 7-3   92 NYN 9-8   142 LAN 11-8
43 NYN 4-0   93 LAN 10-3   143 NYN 13-5
44 LAN 2-0   94 LAN 9-1   144 NYN 12-7
45 NYN 2-0   95 LAN 10-5   145 LAN 11-9
46 NYN 8-3   96 LAN 10-2   146 LAN 12-7
47 NYN 8-2   97 NYN 10-6   147 NYN 13-1
48 NYN 1-0   98 LAN 7-0   148 NYN 13-2
49 NYN 8-5   99 NYN 9-0   149 LAN 12-1
50 NYN 8-4   100 LAN 10-7   150 LAN 13-2
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